Odds Say Two #1 Seeds Make 2019 NCAA Men’s Final Four
- You can wager on how many #1 seeds will make the NCAA Men’s Final Four
- On average, 1.7 #1 seeds make the Final Four each NCAA Tournament
- What’s the best bet here?
The cream usually rises to the top at the NCAA Tournament. There have been exceptions, most notably Virginia last year, but #1 seeds typically make deep runs in March Madness and often crack the Final Four.
On This Date: A year ago, UMBC became the first No. 16 seed in the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament to defeat a No. 1 seed after defeating Virginia 74-54. pic.twitter.com/ZZHdacQyPl
— ESPN (@espn) March 16, 2019
On average, 1.7 #1 seeds make the Final Four each year and you can wager on exactly how many teams will make it to Minneapolis this April.
Exact Number of #1 Seeds in 2019 NCAA Final Four
| How many #1 seeds will make 2019 Final Four? | Odds |
|---|---|
| Two | +150 |
| One | +225 |
| Three | +250 |
| Zero | +1000 |
| Four | +2000 |
Two #1 seeds to advance is the current favorite at some sportsbooks, while other sportsbooks posted this prop prior to selection Sunday and made just a single #1 seed in the Final Four a slight favorite.
Historical Trends for #1 Seeds in the Final Four
Just once since the tournament expanded in 1985 have all four #1 seeds made the Final Four (2008)(, while there have been two instances where zero #1 seeds have made it.
The No. 1 seeds are set.
Is one of them your champion? pic.twitter.com/JGii9sP44v
— Sports Illustrated (@SInow) March 17, 2019
One #1 seed has made the Final Four 14 times, while two have made it 13 times, and there have been four years where three #1 seeds have made it, most recently in 2015.
Since seeding began in 1979, just 5 times has there been more than two #1 seeds in the #FinalFour… #MarchMadnesspic.twitter.com/TIXypk3bDz
— SBR Sports Picks (@SBRSportsPicks) March 19, 2019
Exactly two #1 seeds have made the Final Four in back-to-back years, but from 2010-2016, only one #1 seed advanced in five of the seven tournaments.
Something to Consider
Six of the past seven NCAA Champions have been ranked top-15 in both offensive and defensive efficiency at Kenpom.com. This year, four teams not only meet that criteria, but are inside the top-10 in both key categories. Three of them are #1 seeds: No. 1 Virginia, No. 1 Duke, No.1 North Carolina, and No. 2 Michigan State.
POLL ALERT: NCAA Tournament No. 1 seeds Duke, Virginia, UNC give ACC 1-2-3 showing atop final AP Top 25 hoops poll. See the full poll: https://t.co/Px7hggv3fq pic.twitter.com/zii1UyJPMr
— AP Top 25 (@AP_Top25) March 18, 2019
While not all four can advance to Minnesota, since Duke and Michigan State are in the same region, there’s a strong possibility that the winner will emerge from this group and then it becomes a question of how many you think can make the Final Four and whether or not Gonzaga can join them.
Trust the ACC
The ACC is the most dominant conference in the country, and this year’s trio of ACC #1 seeds have a significant advantage over the rest of the teams in their respective regions.
Of the three, only Virginia is in a region with more than one of KenPom’s top-10 teams, and those two teams (No. 2 Tennessee and No. 3 Purdue) just happen to be programs the Cavaliers matchup very well against.
Here’s a ? at the top half of our bracket! ?⚔️? #GoHoos
It all begins on Friday in Columbia #MarchMadness pic.twitter.com/OjchydicPC— Virginia Men’s Basketball (@UVAMensHoops) March 17, 2019
Sure, one or two #1 seeds have advanced to the Final Four more frequently, but this year the gap in talent feels more significant. I’m leery of relying on any team outside of the ACC. The +250 price tag feels a bit short, but this is the year where #1 seeds flex some serious muscle on the field.
Pick: Three #1 seeds reach Final Four (+250)
SBD’s Regional Previews
- Odds to Win the West Region of 2019 March Madness Tournament
- Duke Listed as Odds-On Favorite to Win East Region of March Madness Bracket
- South Region Preview: Virginia Listed at +140 to Reach Final Four
- Midwest Region Odds: UNC Given Worst Odds of #1 Seeds to Make Final Four
SBD’s Other March Madness coverage:
- The Guide to Filling Out Your March Madness Bracket for Non-College Basketball Fans
- The 5 Best Teams to Bet in 2019 March Madness Against the Spread
- Head-to-Head Odds to Win More Games in the 2019 Men’s NCAA Tournament
- Odds on Which Conference Will Win the 2019 NCAA Tournament
- Odds to Make the Sweet 16 in 2019 March Madness Tournament
- Kentucky Given Best NCAA Tournament Odds Among Non-No. 1 Seeds
- Gonzaga Given Second-Best Odds to Win 2019 March Madness After Selection Sunday
- Duke Enters 2019 March Madness Tournament as Heavy Favorite
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
