Initial CFP Rankings Give Title Odds Boost to Oregon, Michigan and Wake Forest

• The first set of 2021 College Football Playoff rankings have been released
• Georgia, Alabama, Michigan State, and Oregon are currently in the four CFP berths
• Read below to see how the initial CFP rankings impacted the National Championship odds

The first set of College Football Playoff rankings for the 2021 season were released on Tuesday night. These rankings will ultimately determine which four teams get a spot in the CFP.  Six total sets of rankings will be released between now and early-December.

The initial CFP rankings list Georgia, Alabama, Michigan State, and Oregon as playoff teams. Ohio State, Cincinnati, Michigan, and Oklahoma are on the outside looking in.

Let’s take a look at the first set of College Football Playoff rankings and how they impacted the National Championship odds.

National Championship Odds

Odds as of Nov. 2nd at FanDuel.

Ducks Make Huge Leap

Oregon saw its National Championship odds improve from +5000 to +3000 after the first set of College Football rankings were released Tuesday. The Ducks occupy the fourth spot in the initial rankings. It’s clear the CFP selection committee greatly values their Week 2 win over Ohio State in Columbus.

One rep at a time.

The Ducks are No. 4 in the first @CFBPlayoff rankings of 2021.#GoDucks pic.twitter.com/gQRRABsN71

— Oregon Football (@oregonfootball) November 2, 2021

The Ducks haven’t looked as good as the Buckeyes since that game, losing to Stanford in OT and falling to seventh in the AP poll. That head-to-head victory over OSU is keeping them in front of the Buckeyes. Ohio State didn’t see any change in their odds despite being left out of the initial four-team CFP rankings.

Ohio State has a tough final stretch with games against MSU and Michigan, so it’s clear oddsmakers believe they could move into that final CFP spot. If Ohio State wins out and Oregon struggles, the Buckeyes could take their place in the rankings. Ryan Day’s team is looking to make the College Football Playoff for a third straight year.

Wolverines, Demon Deacons Also Improve

Michigan and Wake Forest were the other teams that saw noticeable improvement in their National Title odds following the initial CFP rankings. The Wolverines moved from +10000 to +80000 in the title odds, while the Demon Deacons went from +15000 to +10000. Michigan is seventh in the initial ranks, while Wake Forest is ninth.

We got here as one:

One team.
One mindset.
1-0 mentality. pic.twitter.com/Bxq0DXuSZH

— Wake Forest Football (@WakeFB) October 31, 2021

Wake Forest is the lone remaining undefeated ACC team, but still has to face UNC, Clemson, NC State, and Boston College. Even if Wake Forest runs the table and wins the conference, it’s no guarantee they make the CFP. Alabama having one loss yet occupying the second spot doesn’t bode well for the Demon Deacons.

Michigan’s odds movement is interesting because in-state rival Michigan State didn’t see any initial improvement in their odds despite coming in third in the rankings. The Spartans just beat Michigan behind a monstrous day from running back Kenneth Walker III. The Wolverines showcased their offensive potential in the game, however, racking up over 500 yards of offense.

Bearcats See Odds Fade

Cincinnati saw its National Title odds fade from +4000 to +5000 after being left out of the initial four-team CFP rankings. This decision by the committee is devastating for the Bearcats, who are undefeated and only have one remaining AP-ranked opponent on their schedule. No Group-of-5 school has ever qualified for the CFP.

Cincinnati is No. 2 in the AP Poll, but No. 6 in the initial CFP rankings.

It matches the lowest CFP ranking for any team ranked top-2 in the AP Poll at any point (2015 Baylor). pic.twitter.com/Sj1rDXhQln

— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) November 2, 2021

Cincinnati earned a big win over Notre Dame this season (Notre Dame rounds out the top ten) but their lackluster schedule might cost them a playoff spot. Luke Fickell’s team had been getting love in the AP Top 25 poll, but we now know what the playoff selection committee really thinks of them. An unimpressive seven-point win over Navy in Week 9 didn’t help their cause.

It also hurts Cincinnati that SMU or Houston were both left out of the initial CFP rankings.  If the Bearcats don’t have any CFP ranked opponents left on their schedule, it’s hard to see them vaulting into a playoff spot.

Sooners Still Have Fourth-Best Odds

Oklahoma still has the fourth-best odds to win the National Championship despite coming in at eight in the initial CFP rankings. The Sooners are undefeated through nine games, but five of their victories have been by one score. Oddsmakers still like OU’s chances of sneaking into that final playoff spot.

Oklahoma coming in at No. 8 👀 #CFBPlayoff pic.twitter.com/JMIVjelbUT

— Bleacher Report CFB (@BR_CFB) November 2, 2021

Oklahoma has made four CFP appearances and has gotten a jolt offensively with QB Caleb Williams replacing Spencer Rattler. If the Sooners run the table against Baylor, Iowa State, and Oklahoma State and capture another Big 12 Championship, it’ll be almost impossible for the committee to leave them out of the CFP.