College Football Week 6 Betting Trends – Coaching Carousel Creating Betting Issues
- Six weeks into the college football season and already five coaches have been fired
- Two of those schools (Wisconsin, Colorado) dismissed their coaches last week
- How should you be playing these teams in the College Football Week 6 betting trends in their first game under a new coach?
In terms of college football betting trends, coaches getting fired isn’t necessarily front-page news. However, coaches getting fired this early into the season, well that’s a little bit different.
Through the first five weeks of the CFB season, five coaches have already been handed their walking papers. Paul Chryst (Wisconsin Badgers) and Karl Dorrell (Colorado Buffaloes) were both given the Ziggy following Week 5 setbacks.
The Badgers fell 34-10 to Illinois, leading to Chryst’s surprising dismissal. Wisconsin is 2-3 on the season. Dorrell’s ouster was more predictable. The Buffaloes are 0-5 both straight up and against the spread. Colorado has allowed 38 points in every game and 40+ points in four of them, The Buffaloes scored 17 or fewer points in four of five setbacks.
From a wagering standpoint, does changing a coach in midseason make a team a better bet in the CFB odds? Let’s analyze that aspect in the Week 6 college football trends.
Previous Coaching Changes Impacted College Football Betting Trends
Georgia Tech was 1-3 both SU and ATS when the Week 4 firing of Geoff Collins took place. The only victory by the Yellow Jackets was a 35-17 verdict over Western Carolina in which they failed to cover as 24.5-point home favorites.
However, in their first game under interim coach Brent Key, the Yellow Jackets dropped Pittsburgh 26-21 and covered as 21.5-point underdogs.
Arizona State and coach Herm Edwards agreed to mutually part ways following Week 3. The switch to interim coach Shaun Aguano hasn’t helped in the win-loss column. The Wildcats are 0-2 SU under Aguano. However, they did cover as 24.5-point underdogs in last week’s 42-25 loss to USC.
One third into the CFB season, five Power 5 schools have committed to paying fired head coaches a combined $60M+ in buyouts.
Paul Chryst, Wisconsin: $16.4M
Scott Frost, Nebraska: $15M
Geoff Collins, Georgia Tech: $11.37M
Karl Dorrell, Colorado: $8.7M
Herm Edwards, ASU: $9.4M pic.twitter.com/W5lCINDaes— Front Office Sports (@FOS) October 3, 2022
It’s been almost a month since Nebraska sent Scott Frost packing. The Cornhuskers were 1-1 SU and 0-2 ATS under Frost this season. They’ve gone 1-2 SU and ATS since interim coach Mickey Joseph was put in charge. In the Week 6 college football opening odds, the Cornhuskers are 2.5-point road favorites at Rutgers.
If you’re keeping score at home, CFB teams changing coaches this season are a combined 2-4 SU and 3-3 ATS. Together they were 3-6 SU and 1-8 ATS under their original coaches. So while the SU% remains .333, the ATS% improved significantly from .111 to .500.
Badgers Heavy Favorites At Northwestern
Interim Colorado coach Mike Sanford has a bye week in order to prep his squad for an Oct. 15 home date against the California Bears. Meanwhile, Wisconsin interim coach Jim Leonhard is diving right into it this week.
#Badgers coach Jim Leonhard says the time for talking about playing better is done.
“To me, it’s time to show it.” pic.twitter.com/1vSDLwFPLs
— Zach Heilprin (@ZachHeilprin) October 4, 2022
Oddsmakers are big on the Badgers as they travel to Northwestern to face the 1-4 Wildcats. Wisconsin is set as 10-point road favorites, even though the Badgers are 1-4 ATS in their past five games when facing the Wildcats and 1-9 ATS in their last 10 visits to Northwestern.
Interestingly, the Wildcats posted their only win of the season over Frost and Nebraska in a game played at Dublin, Ireland.
Harbaugh Living Proof Staying The Course Works
While ousting coaches is big news in the Week 6 college football betting trends, Jim Harbaugh of the Michigan Wolverines is displaying what can happen when a school keeps the faith in their coach.
In recent years, there were plenty of calls for Harbaugh’s head as Michigan was struggling to win big games. Amazing what a victory over Ohio State and a Big Ten title can do for a fellow’s job security.
Jim Harbaugh had them laughing and thinking today. 🤔 pic.twitter.com/thi5KX9qPz
— Michigan On BTN (@MichiganOnBTN) October 4, 2022
The Wolverines (5-0 SU, 3-2 ATS) are 22.5-point road favorites at Indiana. Since 1968, Michigan is 19-2 SU on the road facing the Hoosiers.
Indiana is 1-7 ATS in the last seven home games and 1-8 ATS overall in the past nine games.
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An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.
