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LSU Now an Odds-On Favorite (-150) to Make 4-Team Playoff; Tigers Were +650 in June

Brady Trettenero

by Brady Trettenero in College Football

Oct 25, 2019 · 8:56 PM PDT

Joe Burrow and the LSU Tigers football team
Joe Burrow and the LSU Tigers are now an odds-on favorite (-150) to make the four-team playoff. Photo by Tammy Anthony Baker [CC License].
  • You can wager on whether or not LSU will make the four-team CFP
  • The Tigers have one of the best offenses in the country led by QB Joe Burrow
  • LSU’s playoff chances will likely come down to a Week 11 clash with Alabama

The LSU Tigers are now an odds-on favorite (-150) to make the four-team CFP. The Tigers convincingly beat a ranked Florida team in Week 8 and will benefit from Alabama’s star QB Tua Tagovailoa suffering from another ankle injury when they meet the Tide on November 9th.

LSU QB Joe Burrow is the Heisman Trophy favorite and a big reason why the Tigers’ four-team CFP odds are improving.

Is LSU a good bet to make the playoff at -150 or better value to miss at +130?

Odds to Make 2020 College Football Playoff

Team Odds to Make Playoff Odds to Miss Playoff
Clemson -300 +250
Alabama -230 +190
Ohio State -190 +165
Oklahoma -170 +150
LSU -150 +130
Georgia +290 -350
Penn State +450 -600
Oregon +500 -650
Auburn +1000 -1500
Wisconsin +1000 -1500
Utah +1000 -1500

Odds collected Oct. 24.

LSU’s Prolific Offense

LSU is proving to have one of the best offenses in the country. The Tigers rank third in the nation in total offense and are beating their opponents by an average of 30 points.

The most positive development for LSU’s four-team CFP hopes is how the Tigers offense performed against Florida’s top-10 defense in Week 7. The Gators came into the game leading the country in interceptions and leading the SEC in sacks, but LSU was able to total 511 yards without giving up a sack or committing a turnover.

Auburn is another good defensive team that will present a challenge for the Tigers. As long as they take care of business in Death Valley, their only other tough remaining game on the schedule will be the Alabama clash in Week 11.

Joe Burrow is Heisman Favorite

Joe Burrow is now favored in the 2019 Heisman Trophy Odds after another impressive showing in Week 8 against Mississippi State. Burrow set the LSU school record when he threw four touchdown passes in a 36-13 win over the Bulldogs. Not only are his 29 TD passes this season a school record, but they are also the most thrown by any QB on a playoff contender.

LSU’s offensive line has been excellent this season and Burrow has had plenty of time to put his deadly accuracy to use. The Tigers QB has thrown just three interceptions and ranks second in the nation with a 216.2 pass efficiency rating.

Burrow is a big reason to bet LSU to make the playoff. He hasn’t had a bad outing this season and I doubt he turns in one this year. His consistency gives the Tigers a very strong shot at winning all the remaining games on their schedule.

Tough Competition 

There are six teams in the top-10 in the latest AP Poll who are still undefeated and have good playoff odds. Ohio State recently became on odds-on favorite to make the CFP as Justin Fields and the Buckeyes have been blowing out their opponents. There is a chance they get upset by Wisconsin, Michigan or Penn State, but it’s very likely they win the Big 10 and make the playoff.

Jalen Hurts and Oklahoma took down Texas in their biggest test of the season in Week 8. They are very likely to win out against some lackluster Big 12 opponents and make the CFP.

Clemson survived a scare against UNC in Week 7 and rebounded with a convincing 45-10 victory over Florida State the following week. They should keep the momentum rolling and finish the season undefeated,

LSU is likely going to have to beat Alabama to make the playoff …

There’s a chance one of these top-five teams incurs an upset at some point, but the odds aren’t great. LSU is likely going to have to beat Alabama to make the playoff, which is very possible.

Alabama Game on Horizon

LSU’s playoff chances are likely to come down to the game against Alabama on Nov.9. The Tigers had a decent shot at winning heading into Week 8, but those chances increased when Crimson Tide QB Tua Tagovailoa injured his ankle against Tennessee.

Tagovailoa required surgery and has been ruled out for Week 9 against Arkansas. He could return for the LSU game, but it isn’t guaranteed. Even if he does manage to return to face the Tigers, he likely won’t be at 100 percent.

Tagovailoa underwent the same tightrope procedure on his other ankle last December and returned to game action 28 days later against Oklahoma in the CFP semi-final. He told reporters he was only at 80% for that game. This time, he only has 20 days to recover if he were to return for LSU.

Because the competition in CFB is so strong this year, LSU likely won’t get into the playoff unless they beat Alabama. But with Tagovailoa nursing an ankle injury, the Tigers have the upper hand.

Analysis on LSU’s Four-Team CFP Odds

LSU had a chance to beat Alabama before Tagovailoa went down, but they have an even better chance now. Everything Joe Burrow and the Tigers have shown this season makes them a good bet to make the CFP.

There are some strong playoff contenders with easier paths to making the CFP, but the Tigers offense has been outstanding and they proved they can get the job against a top defensive team such as Florida.

I like the value on LSU’s playoff odds entering Week 9. Auburn and Alabama are going to be tough tests, so bet the Tigers to make the CFP before these games. LSU’s playoff odds are going to increase dramatically if they beat Alabama on Nov.9.

Pick: LSU to make the four-team playoff (-150)

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