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Opening College Football Conference Championship Odds, Spreads & Early Predictions

Sascha Paruk

by Sascha Paruk in College Football

Updated Nov 27, 2023 · 3:07 PM PST

Alabama Crimson Tide quarterback Jalen Milroe celebrates winning the 2023 Iron Bowl over Auburn
Nov 25, 2023; Auburn, Alabama, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide quarterback Jalen Milroe (4) celebrates after defeating the Auburn Tigers at Jordan-Hare Stadium. Alabama won 27-24. Mandatory Credit: Gary Cosby Jr.-USA TODAY Sports
  • See the NCAAF conference championship game odds for all ten games
  • Alabama and Georgia meet in the SEC title game for the third time in the last six seasons
  • Oregon is a big favorite over undefeated Washington in the Pac-12 championship

After a thrilling rivalry week, which saw another ludicrous ending to the Iron Bowl, the matchups are set for all ten conference championship games.  While Michigan vs Iowa in the Big Ten title game is expected to be a blowout, the majority of the matchups features single-digit point spreads, which portends an entertaining week of pivotal games.

The table below lists the spread, moneyline, and total for all ten games, along with the date and time. Under the table, find my favorite lines to target at this early stage. Games are listed in chronological order.

NCAAF Conference Championship Game Odds 2023

C-USA Point Spread Moneyline Total Date/Time/Location
New Mexico State Aggies +10.5 (-110) +310 O 52.5 (-110) Friday, Dec. 1
Liberty Flames -10.5 (-110) -400 U 52.5 (-110) 7:00 pm ET (Lynchburg, VA)
Pac-12 Point Spread Moneyline Total Date/Time/Location
Oregon Ducks -8.5 (-115) -330 O 68.5 (-110) Friday, Dec. 1
Washington Huskies +8.5 (-105) +260 U 68.5 (-110) 8:00 pm ET (Las Vegas, NV)
MAC Point Spread Moneyline Total Date/Time/Location
Miami Ohio RedHawks +8.5 (-110) +250 O 45.5 (-110) Saturday, Dec. 2
Toledo Rockets -8.5 (-110) -315 U 45.5 (-110) 12:00 pm ET (Detroit, MI)
Big 12 Point Spread Moneyline Total Date/Time/Location
OK State Cowboys +11.5 (-105) +340 O 53.5 (-115) Saturday, Dec. 2
Texas Longhorns -11.5 (-115) -450 U 53.5 (-105) 12:00 pm ET (Arlington, TX)
Mountain West Point Spread Moneyline Total Date/Time/Location
Boise State -2 (-110) -135 TBD Saturday, Dec. 2
 UNLV +2 (-110) +115 TBD 12:00 pm ET (Las Vegas, NV)
SEC Point Spread Moneyline Total Date/Time/Location
Georgia Bulldogs -5.5 (-108) -194 O 55.5 (-110) Saturday, Dec. 2
Alabama Crimson Tide +5.5 (-112) +160 U 55.5 (-110) 3:00 pm ET (Atlanta, GA)
AAC Point Spread Moneyline Total Date/Time/Location
SMU Mustangs +3 (-110) +122 O 52.5 (-110) Saturday, Dec. 2
Tulane Green Wave -3 (-110) -146 U 52.5 (-110) 4:00 pm ET (New Orleans, LA)
Sun Belt Point Spread Moneyline Total Date/Time/Location
App State Mountaineers +7 (-115) +198 O 51.5 (-110) Saturday, Dec. 2
Troy Trojans -7 (-105) -245 U 51.5 (-110) 4:00 pm ET (Troy, AL)
ACC Point Spread Moneyline Total Date/Time/Location
Louisville Cardinals +4.5 (-110) +152 O 51.5 (-110) Saturday, Dec. 2
Florida State Seminoles -4.5 (-110) -184 U 51.5 (-110) 8:00 pm ET (Charlotte, NC)
Big Ten Point Spread Moneyline Total Date/Time/Location
Michigan Wolverines -22.5 (-115) -7000 O 35.5 (-115) Saturday, Dec. 2
Iowa Hawkeyes +22.5 (-105) +2000 U 35.5 (-105) 8:00 pm ET (Indianapolis, IN)

The biggest spread of the week is Michigan vs Iowa, where the Wolverines are 22.5-point favorites over the low-scoring Hawkeyes. No other spread is more than 11.5 (Texas over OK State).

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Odds as of Nov. 26 on the FanDuel app and DraftKings Sportsbook. 

Two totals also stand out compared to the rest. The Pac-12 title game between Oregon and Washington has an over/under of 68.5, while Michigan vs Iowa is at just 35.5. Every other total in the current college football odds is between 45.5 and 55.5, though Boise State vs UNLV in the Mountain West championship has yet to be posted.

The national championship odds after Week 13 continue to favor Michigan (+182) and Georgia (+216). Oregon’s Box Nix (-129) continues to hold a slight lead over LSU’s Jayden Daniels (+105) in the 2023 Heisman odds.

Louisville vs Florida State Odds & Early Prediction

Florida State (12-0, 7-5 ATS) stayed perfect on Saturday against rival Florida but looked extremely vulnerable in the 25-16 win, its first Power 5 game without starting QB Jordan Travis, who is out for the season with a leg injury. The Seminoles managed just 224 yards of offense against a suspect Florida defense. Tate Rodemaker was 12-of-25 for just 134 yards and no touchdowns in his second career start. (He was 13-of-23 for 217 yards and two touchdowns in his first start, which came against FCS team North Alabama.)

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Louisville (10-2, 6-6 ATS) didn’t impress in Week 13 either, taking its first home loss (and second overall, overall) to Kentucky, 38-31. But they took a 10-7 lead into halftime and were still up 24-21 at the end of three. The Cardinals squandered their lead thanks to two fourth-quarter turnovers. They out-gained the Wildcats by a wide margin on the day (403 to 289). They also didn’t benefit from a single penalty call against UK.

In short, there was more to like in Louisville’s loss than there was in FSU’s win. This is the week the Noles fall from the ranks of the unbeaten. Look for Louisville to do the CFP Selection Committee a huge favor and hand Florida State an L.

Louisville vs Florida State pick: Louisville moneyline (+152)

Oregon vs Washington Odds & Early Prediction

The Oregon Ducks (11-1, 9-2-1 ATS) suffered their only loss of the season at Washington, 36-33, back in mid-October. The Huskies (12-0, 5-6-1 ATS) have stayed perfect since then, despite some very close calls, as evidenced by their 5-6-1 ATS record. Their last two wins over Oregon State and Washington State came by five total points, while none of their past five wins have come by more than ten.

Washington was fairly lucky to beat Oregon. The Ducks racked up  541 total yards (compared to 415 for the Huskies), didn’t commit a single turnover (compared to one for the Huskies), and controlled the ball for 34:21 (compared to 25:39 for the Huskies). But an 18-yard Rome Odunze TD catch with 1:38 to play put Washington on top for good in the back-and-forth game.

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The Ducks have looked like a team on a mission since that setback. Their smallest win in the past six games is nine points (36-27 versus USC), and they have averaged a 26-point margin of victory.

Yet this line is still too big. Washington may not be as good as its record, but this is still an extremely good and extremely balanced team with a senior Heisman contender at QB and a defense that’s held seven opponents to 24 or fewer.

Oregon vs Washington pick: Washington +8.5 (-110)

Sascha Paruk’s 2023 NCAAF betting record:

  • ATS: 4-8-1 (-4.36 units)
  • ML: 6-2 (+5.46 units)
  • O/U: 3-1 (+1.73 units)
  • Player props: 0-1 (-1.00 units)
  • Total: 13-12-1 (+1.83 units)

 

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