Week 1 College Football Picks Against the Spread

• Week 1 of college football features the first main Saturday slate of the season  on Sept. 2
• Oklahoma is a heavy favorite over Arkansas State, while Boise State is an intriguing underdog vs Washington
• Read below for the best Week 1 college football picks against the spread

After getting a small taste of action during the Week 0 appetizer, the 2023 college football season provides its first main course with a jam-packed Week 1 slate on Saturday, September 2nd. We’ve assembled our three top CFB picks against the spread to help you turn a profit.

Among our best Week 1 college football picks against the spread is a play on the Oklahoma Sooners as they aim to rebound from a disappointing 2022 season. We’re also targeting two Mountain West underdog teams that are being undervalued due to the name-brand recognition of their respective opponents.

Let’s dive into our expert college football picks against the spread for Week 1 (Saturday, September 2rd).

Boise State vs Washington Odds 

All odds as of August 30th at DraftKings Sportsbook. Browse the top sports betting sites for college football against the spread betting. Bettors in the Bluegrass State should check out Kentucky sports betting ahead of Wednesday’s official pre-reg launch. 

Pick #1: Boise State +14.5 (vs Washington)

One of our top college football picks against the spread comes in a Saturday afternoon matchup between Boise State and Washington at Husky Stadium in Seattle. The Broncos shouldn’t be underestimated against a Huskies team gaining Pac-12 Conference Championship buzz.

Boise State had one of the best running attacks in the country last season, averaging close to 200 yards per game. It should be devastating for opposing defenses once again with the return of George Holani, who rushed for 1,100 yards in 2022. BSU was 9-0 when they rushed for at least 148 yards last season.

#BoiseState returns an ELITE running back duo in 2023 – The veteran George Holani, and the breakout star Ashton Jeanty
Although they compete with each other daily, Holani has taken Jeanty under his wing, and is ready for the duo to explode this season pic.twitter.com/XrFE84SmYJ

— Brady Frederick (@BradyFrederick_) August 14, 2023

Washington QB Michael Penix Jr. is a popular preseason pick in the Heisman odds, but he’ll become easier for opposing defenses to prepare for with UW losing their starting running back Cam Davis for the season due to injury. Albeit in the Mountain West, the Broncos had the conference’s second-best secondary last season (160.7 YPG).

We like Washington to win outright, but this line is too high for the talent Boise possesses. Not to mention, the Broncos are 5-1 ATS in their past six Week 1 games. The CFB public betting splits are also showing the type of money distribution we like to see, with only 35% of bets but 68% of the money on Boise State ATS.

• Pick: Boise State +14.5 (-110)

Arkansas State vs Oklahoma Odds 

Pick #2: Oklahoma (-35) vs Arkansas State

It’s sometimes hard for casual bettors to consider betting heavy favorites in college football against the spread, but value is value no matter how high or low the line is. We project Oklahoma as a 40-plus point favorite against Arkansas State in Week 1, yet the line currently sits at 35 points.

Brent Venables and the Oklahoma Sooners need to make a statement in Week 1 after underwhelming in year one of the former Clemson defensive coaches’ tenure. They land the perfect opponent in Arkansas State, who won only three games last season and are trending in the wrong direction under coach Butch Jones.

Competitive depth. #OUDNA | @Allstate pic.twitter.com/OjmLfHTvu2

— Oklahoma Football (@OU_Football) August 29, 2023

During the 2022 campaign, the Red Wolves had one of the worst pass defenses in the Sun Belt Conference, allowing 242.7 yards per game. Oklahoma’s senior quarterback, Dillon Gabriel, who threw for over 3,100 yards last season with 25 TDs and six picks, should have no problem torching this secondary.

A clear weakness for OU last season was their rush defense, as they were 0-6 when allowing over 200 yards per game on the ground. Fortunately, Arkansas State had the worst rushing offense in the Sun Belt last season (88.2 YPG). Look for the Sooners to begin their potential bounce-back campaign in blowout fashion.

• Pick: Oklahoma -35 (-110)

Fresno State vs Purdue Odds 

Pick #3: Fresno State (+4) vs Purdue

Concluding our Week 1 college football picks against the spread is a play on the Fresno State Bulldogs against the Purdue Boilermakers in West Lafayette. Coming off a 10-4 season in the Mountain West, the Bulldogs offer solid value against a Purdue team being slightly overvalued by the betting market.

Yes, the Boilermakers did reach the Big Ten Title game last season, but they were playing in a weak Big Ten West Division and got crushed by Michigan when it mattered. The Boilermakers have plenty of turnover this year, returning just four defensive starters and ushering in a new coach (Ryan Walters) and new quarterback (Hudson Card).

The Bulldogs also have to overcome turnover, as they’re replacing starting QB Jake Haener and top RB Jordan Mims. They do, however, return head coach Jeff Tedford, who has had his team prepared to start every season. In fact, the Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in their past five Week 1 contests.

Purdue typically doesn’t have strong starts to a season, and we don’t see that changing with all the offseason upheaval. The Boilermakers are 1-4 straight up in their past five Week 1 games and failed to cover the spread the last time they opened against a Mountain West opponent (-11 vs Nevada in 2020).

• Pick: Fresno State +4 (-110)

Current CFB ATS Picks Record: 2-1

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