College Football Week 14 Upset Pick: Kansas State Takes Down Iowa State in “Farmageddon”

• Kansas State hosts Iowa State in Week 14 (Saturday, Nov. 30)
• Both teams have seven wins and are fighting to improve their status for bowl season
• Can Skylar Thompson lead the Wildcats to an upset victory over the Cyclones?

Kansas State  (7-4, 4-4 Big 12) and Iowa State (7-4, 5-3 Big 12) face off in the in the annual “Farmageddon” game on Saturday, Nov. 30 (7:00 PM ET).

The Wildcats have dominated this matchup recently and are primed to turn in a big performance in their final home game of the season.

Can dual-threat QB Skylar Thompson lead the Wildcats to a big upset victory?

Kansas State vs Iowa State Odds

Odds taken Nov. 28

The Matchup

Kansas State improved to 7-4 on the season after beating Texas Tech 30-27 in Week 13. The Wildcats never trailed in the game and rebounded nicely after suffering a home loss to West Virginia in the previous week.

Iowa State is also 7-4 on the season after beating Kansas by a 41-31 score last weekend. The Cyclones were trailing in the fourth quarter before rallying for 14 points to win the game. Despite pulling out the victory, Iowa State allowed 493 yards and nine third-down conversions to the last-place team in the conference.

Kansas State has dominated this series historically, winning 21 of the last 25 meetings. Iowa State erased a 17-point deficit to win the 2018 meeting in Ames, but they haven’t beat the Wildcats in Manhattan since 2004.

Wildcats Dominant Run Game

A big reason why Kansas State is a good bet for the upset is their elite run game. The Wildcats have rushed for 2,037 yards and 26 rushing touchdowns this season and should continue that success against an Iowa State rush defense that ranks 28th nationally.

Youngblood with the answer for K-State#KStateFB ⚒ Pound The Stone pic.twitter.com/uHxeJWGVUc

— K-State Football (@KStateFB) November 24, 2019

Iowa State hasn’t been as efficient on the ground and will need to rely on their passing game to beat the Wildcats. The Cyclones haven’t had problems winning games in the air, but they’re run into trouble when up against dual-threat defenses.

Kansas State has two linebackers and two defensive backs with at least 46 tackles, while top DE Wyatt Hubert has seven sacks. This is a well-balanced defense that will pressure on the QB and force Iowa State to take chances and make mistakes. 

Skylar Thompson vs Brock Purdy

Brock Purdy leads a dangerous Iowa State pass offense that is averaging 330.5 yards per game and ranks sixth nationally. Purdy was recently named the Big 12 offensive player of the week after throwing for for 372 yards and four TDs against Kansas.

Kansas State can win this game due to a reliable passing defense. They have their hands full with Purdy, but they have given up just 10 passing TDs this season, which is tied for the sixth fewest nationally. Even in games where Oklahoma’s Jalen Hurts and Texas Tech’s Jett Duffey each threw for almost 400 yards, the Wildcats were still able to pull out victories.

Skylar Thompson punches in his fourth rush TD of the day!

Kansas State leads No. 5 Oklahoma 41-23 👀 pic.twitter.com/svcgEkdMvp

— ESPN (@espn) October 26, 2019

A key reason the Wildcats have managed victories against strong pass offenses is their plus-4 turnover margin and the play of dual-threat Skylar Thompson. The Wildcats QB accounted for 10 of the team’s 26 rushing TD’s and has also thrown for over 2,000 passing yards. Thompson is coming off a strong outing against Texas Tech and can go toe-to-toe with Purdy.

Thompson has had success against Iowa State in the past, throwing four TD passes over the last two years against the Cyclones. Expect another big game from the dual-threat QB against a weak Cyclones secondary that ranks 86th nationally.

Betting Advice

This is always a tightly played game that has been decided by less than a touchdown in each of the last five meetings.

Close games are better suited for the Wildcats, as they have been the much better team on turnovers, possession and third downs this season. As good as Brock Purdy has been, Kansas State has a strong secondary that will force Iowa State to make plays with a mediocre rush attack.

Expect Kansas State to control the pace of the game and rely on their solid rush offense to earn a tight upset victory.

Pick: Kansas State (+175)