The 10 Best Value Prop Bets for Super Bowl 54 – Don’t Pass on These!

• Get help making smart prop bets on Super Bowl 54
• The 49ers averaged just 0.6 fumbles on the road (fewest in the NFL); their first turnover is likely to be an interception
• Demi Lovato has used a microphone stand at her three World Series performances as well as at an NFL game

Super Bowl 54 takes place in less than 48 hours (Sunday, Feb. 2, 6:30 PM ET). We’ve now had a couple of weeks to look at all of the props on the board. After sifting through the massive list, we’ve narrowed down our 10 best value bets for Super Bowl 54.

10. Demarcus Robinson First Catch Over 9.5 Yards

While it’s a little-known fact, Chiefs wide receiver Demarcus Robinson has been one of the team’s most explosive players this year. He has a 14.0 yards-per-catch average, which is better than Travis Kelce and Sammy Watkins, and is just 0.8 yards behind Tyreek Hill.

Demarcus Robinson First Reception Distance Over/Under

Odds taken Jan. 31.

His first catch against the Tennessee Titans went for 24 yards and, while his first catch against the Houston Texans was just four yards, he cleared 9.5 in each of the four games prior.

Just looking at his averages, he averaged more than 9.5 yards-per-catch in 10 of his 18 games this year with one near miss at 8.8.

I put him at about a 70% chance of hitting over 9.5 – especially since in five of his last six games, he’s easily beat this number – so that gives us an 8.5% edge on this prop. Also, it’s worth noting that the over/under on his first reception yardage is 12.5 yards.

9. The 49ers First Turnover Is an Interception

Both of the teams take care of the football, for the most part, but if the 49ers do turn it over, an interception is more likely than a fumble.

49ers First Turnover Odds

Odds taken Jan. 31.

Neither Kansas City Chiefs or San Francisco 49ers fumbles a whole heck of a lot. On the year, the Chiefs had just 1.3 fumbles per game, which was 14th in the NFL, while the 49ers were at 1.1, which was 10th-best. The 49ers were even more careful on the road as their 0.6 average was the fewest in the NFL.

That’s why I’m expecting the 49ers first turnover of the game to be an interception. They were 18th in the category at 0.8 per game, which is not a great mark. Jimmy Garoppolo has had at least one pick in 11 of his 18 contests. The -130 odds carry a 56.5% implied probability; I put this closer to 60%.

8. No Field Goal In The Second Quarter

The oddsmakers seem to think that there is a strong likelihood of this happening, but I put this closer to 50/50.

Odds a Field Goal Is Made in Second Quarter

Odds taken Jan. 31.

The -300 odds give us an implied probability of 75%. Looking at the numbers on the year, that’s a little too high. For Chiefs kicker Harrison Butker, the second quarter was his most active of the year as he made 15-of-16 field goals. That’s nearly double the attempts he’s had in his next highest quarter, which was nine.

As for Robbie Gould, the second quarter is his second-most active (after the fourth); he had nine attempts in the quarter.

At the same time, both teams have kicked field goals in the second quarter this postseason and both teams have had a game where they haven’t. Both teams might still score but via touchdowns instead of field goals.

This puts me closer to 50/50; I don’t see this as much of a lock as the oddsmakers do.

7. No Halftime Appearance from Gerard Pique (Shakira’s Boyfriend)

Although this prop is heavily juiced to ‘No’, considering Pique has a match on Sunday in Spain, the odds for ‘No’ should maybe be even shorter.

Odds Gerard Pique Is Shown on Halftime Broadcast

Odds taken Jan. 31.

With odds of -1500, the line is telling us the implied probability of not seeing Pique – Shakira’s boyfriend – at 93.8%. That seems low considering he plays for FC Barcelona, a soccer team that will have a game in Spain on the same day (roughly 3:00 PM ET). I’d give him a 0.5% chance of skipping that game to appear at the Super Bowl and be shown at halftime.

6. Jimmy Garoppolo Over 29.5 Pass Attempts

The 49ers quarterback had a total of just eight passing attempts in the NFC Championship Game. so I’m not surprised that many people like the under here. However, to me, this prop is more about the pace of play.

Garoppolo Over 29.5 Pass Attempts

Odds taken Jan. 31.

The Chiefs tend to drag teams into their style of game, which typically means the opponent either has to keep up or come from behind.

Ryan Tannehill and Deshaun Watson – the two quarterbacks the Chiefs faced in the playoffs – each went over 29.5. That trend continued into the regular season as each of the final six quarterbacks the Chiefs faced threw at least 30 attempts. The implied odds here say Garoppolo only has a 48.8% chance of hitting the over but I estimate it closer to 60%.

5. Raheem Mostert Will Not Score a Touchdown in Both Halves

Mostert accomplished this feat in the NFC Championship Game. It’s unlikely he’ll repeat it in back-to-back games.

Odds Raheem Mostert Scores a Touchdown in Both Halves

Odds taken Jan. 31.

The implied odds of ‘No’ are at 85.2%. I think it should be closer to 95%. Mostert had never scored a touchdown in both halves ever in a game before the NFC Championship against the Packers.

One aspect that gets overlooked in this game is that, while the Chiefs defense isn’t great overall, they do well in the red zone. They’re ninth in red zone defense and that’s despite being 24th in red zone attempts allowed. I think there’s a 95% chance Mostert doesn’t score in each half here.

4. Robbie Gould Will Miss a Field Goal Attempt

Robbie Gould has been on the money of late but he was just 32nd this season in teams of field-goal kicking accuracy.

Odds Robbie Gould Misses a Field Goal

Odds taken Jan. 31.

As touched on above, the Chiefs have a fairly good red zone defense, meaning the Niners might get bogged down inside the 20.

There’s no question that Gould is a solid kicker but few people realize that he’s made just 74.2% of his kicks this year. He’s been money down the stretch of the season (hasn’t missed in six games) but four of those games were at home.

He missed a kick in five of his seven road games this year and this will again be an away game. I have this at about 30% that he misses a kick whereas the odds for ‘No’ say it’s only 27.4%.

3. Mostert’s Rushing Attempts Is Higher Than Andre Drummond’s Rebounds vs Denver

This prop pits the 49ers running back against the Detroit Pistons center, who has a matchup against the Denver Nuggets on Sunday.

Raheem Mostert Carries v  Andre Drummond Rebounds Odds

Odds taken Jan. 31.

The odds are -115 both ways. Drummond is averaging 15.6 rebounds on the season and is at 15.5 this month. It’s worth noting he averages 14.6 rebounds at home compared to 16.5 on the road. On Sunday, he’ll face the Denver Nuggets in Detroit.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gGqNtMvumwQ

I like Mostert here for two mains reasons: first, Denver’s Nikola Jokic is not a great matchup for Drummond; second, even if Drummond gets to his season average of roughly 15, Mostert should still win. With Tevin Coleman’s status in question, Mostert being the hot hand right now and the Chiefs defense allowing 4.9 yards-per-carry, I give Mostert a 60% shot to hit at least 15 carries.

2. Zion Williamson’s Points/Rebounds/Assists Is Greater Than 49ers Total

The New Orleans Pelicans rookie will face the Houston Rockets on Sunday. Can he total more points, rebounds and assists than the 49ers will score points?

Zion Williamson More Points + Rebounds + Assists vs San Francisco 49ers Points

Odds taken Jan. 31.

The Super Bowl total currently sits at 54.5 and the Chiefs are a 1.5-point favorite, so the projected final score for the game is 28 – 26.5. With the 49ers being pegged at 26.5, I like Zion Williamson to go over that mark when the New Orleans Pelicans face the Houston Rockets on Sunday.

Williamson is currently averaging 18.0 points per game with 8.3 rebounds, so we’re already at the over if he hits those marks. At the same time, the Rockets play with a pace of 106.4, which is the second-highest mark in the NBA. That means there will be lots of possessions.

With Williamson’s minutes continuing to creep up, I put this at a 70% chance that he outscores San Francisco, not even counting assists. If he chips in a couple of assists, then he should be in great shape.

1. Demi Lovato Will Use a Microphone Stand During the National Anthem

We’ve seen her perform a number of national anthems, so that might tip us off as to which way she’ll go.

Odds Demi Lovato Uses a Microphone Stand for National Anthem

Odds taken Jan. 31.

This number shows that there’s a 61.5% chance that Demi Lovato uses a microphone stand but given that we have a little bit of evidence to work with, I put this number around 80%. She’s sung the National Anthem at the World Series three times and once at a Dallas Cowboys game. Every time she used a microphone stand.

She didn’t use a microphone stand when she sang at the Floyd Mayweather-Conor McGregor fight but that was in a ring. I put this at about 80%, so the ‘Yes’ has good value here.

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