- Patrick Mahomes’ first year as starter produced a 5,097 yard season
- In total, 12 quarterbacks surpassed 4,000 yards passing
- What are the best over/under bets for this season?
This isn’t your dad’s NFL.
In this pass-happy version, quarterbacks are not battling in the trenches. Instead, they’re scorching the earth.
Since the 2014 season, there’s only been one year where less than 10 pivots didn’t break the 4,000 yard mark.
Of last year’s dozen, two cracked 5,000, and one of them, MVP Patrick Mahomes, was just the second ever to accomplish the 5,000 yards passing and 50 TD passes double.
With that, let’s check out the over/under props for a select choice of QB’s this upcoming season.
Like you, I’m tempted to take over on a bunch. Let’s delve in and see if you should trust your instincts.
2019 NFL Over/Under Passing Odds
|Player||Line||Over Odds||Under Odds|
*Odds taken 07/05/19.
The Mashers: Mahomes, Luck and Mayfield
The reigning MVP is due some regression, unless his arm is truly a bazooka, and Mahomes does the unthinkable and goes back-to-back 5,000 (let’s not put it past him).
Patrick Mahomes warms up throwing it 135 yards ? pic.twitter.com/2Nb4W44ZRx
— Footballism™ (@FootbaIIism) July 4, 2019
The one cause for concern would be the pending child abuse situation facing Tyreek Hill. In strictly football terms, he was key in popping the top off the defense, allowing Travis Kelce to wreak havoc in the middle of the field.
Patrick Mahomes torched man coverage last season for a 120.7 passer rating! pic.twitter.com/K8YnX5Sit5
— PFF (@PFF) July 4, 2019
Still, Mahomes is the centerpiece of this engine and one of the early favorites to lead the league in passing. Here’s betting that his play elevates whoever KC plugs into those spots on offense.
Pick: Mahomes Over 4650.5 (-115)
Coming off a career threatening injury to his throwing shoulder, Andrew Luck staying upright was the key to everything. Indy safeguarded him all year, and he surpassed the 4,500 yard mark for just the second time in his career.
Andrew Luck threw for 4,593 yards and 39 TDs with a receiving core that dropped the third most passes in the NFL in 2018 (28). How good do you think his stats would’ve been with a more sure-handed supporting cast last season? pic.twitter.com/pxzKw04tBW
— Cody Felger (@CPFelger55) June 29, 2019
TY Hilton will continue to shine, and Devin Funchess could finally break out and be the high draft pick (41st overall) talent many predicted coming out of Michigan. If the TE duo of Eric Ebron and Jack Doyle continue to shred defenses, Andrew will be a Giant.
Pick: Luck Over 4500.5 (-125)
There’s but a 13-start sample to go on, but Cleveland sure does believe Baker Mayfield’s time is now.
Baker Mayfield 51-yard TD to Jarvis Landry. Placed the ball perfectly. pic.twitter.com/UTngcxmVi5
— NFL Update (@MySportsUpdate) December 9, 2018
Nabbing Odell Beckham Jr. supercharges the offence, and the rest of the pieces fall in line nicely behind. Here’s hoping Cleveland rocks.
Pick: Mayfield Over 4325.5 (-120)
The Veteran Pivots: Rodgers, Brees and Wilson
Freed from the shackles of a Mike McCarthy-led offense, Aaron Rodgers will hopefully get to showcase his otherworldly skills under the tutelage of new head coach Matt LaFleur.
Here’s another reminder of Aaron Rodgers’ greatness in Green Bay during the PFF era. pic.twitter.com/AhS9dHI7Zs
— PFF (@PFF) June 28, 2019
Still, he threw for 4,442 yards with 25 TDs and two interceptions in a down year. Green Bay’s goal is to get back to the playoffs, where they’ve been outsiders the past two seasons. They’re preaching a more balanced attack. I’m preaching a letdown.
Pick: Rodgers Under 4275.5 (-100)
Drew Brees just came off his lowest passing yardage since 2005, the last year he failed to crack 4,000 yards.
.@DrewBrees: All-time passing yardage ?
This moment never gets old.
— NFL (@NFL) July 5, 2019
No reason to expect him to fall off a cliff. His 8.2 yards per pass attempt was the third highest in his illustrious career. Can it be that one of the greatest passers in NFL history was just going with the flow?
Pick: Brees Over 4350.5 (-125)
Let’s hope Brian Schottenheimer got the memo: It’s a crime to have Russell Wilson play a full 16-game season and attempt just 427 passes. This was magnified in an ugly playoff loss to the Cowboys, when Wilson got the chunk of his 233 yards passing when the Seahawks were down two scores late and forced to throw.
Seahawks fans, we're going to have a long talk about Brian Schottenheimer.
Seattle doesn't have Blake Bortles or Case Keenum at QB.
This is Russell Wilson.
16 Wilson passes @ 8.3 YPA vs
21 non-Wilson runs @ 2.8 YPC
One of the worst called games w a good QB I can remember.
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) January 6, 2019
Wilson has done more with less at his skill positions than most, yet he was handled last year like he was the late-round pick that was ordered to hand off to Marshawn Lynch in his first couple seasons. Let the man spin! If they do, Wilson dominates.
Pick: Wilson Over 3650.5 (-120)
What About the Kids?
I like Kyler Murray, but there aren’t enough weapons or talent to overcome the hurt he’s going to experience in Year 1. Kliff Kingsbury should build a nice offensive framework for him to succeed as early as Year 2.
Pick: Murray Under 3285.5 (-110)
Meanwhile, the Ravens beefed up their running attack with Mark Ingram, so it will be hard for John Harbaugh to expand Lamar Jackson’s passing attack, if they can ground and pound the opposition.
Lamar Jackson. 68-yard TD ?
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) December 23, 2018
Can Jackson average 190 yards a game passing to keep defenses honest? That would nail the over. It would also be an exponential jump from the 75 yards a contest he threw for last year in leading Baltimore to the playoffs.
Pick: Jackson Under 3000.5 (-115)