2020 AFC East Predictions, Odds, Projected Records, and Win Totals
By Robert Duff in NFL Football
Updated: March 9, 2021 at 4:06 pm ESTPublished:
- The Buffalo Bills are +120 favorites to win the AFC East
- The New England Patriots (+130) have won the past 11 AFC East titles
- Buffalo’s last division title came in 1995
Believe it or not, there was time when teams other than the New England Patriots won the AFC East Division title. Some sports-betting sites are of the belief that the time could again be upon us.
The New England Patriots have won the past 11 AFC East titles. But as the opening kickoff of the NFL season approaches, New England is without quarterback Tom Brady for the first time in two decades, and the Pats are no longer considered the team to beat.
That tag is being applied to the Buffalo Bills. Buffalo is the +120 favorite to be 2020 AFC East champions in the NFL Divisional odds and the the SBD NFL Win Probabilities agree that the Bills should be favored.
AFC East Odds and Win Totals
| Team | Division Odds | Win Total | SBD Win Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | +120 | 9.5 | 9-7 |
| New England Patriots | +130 | 8.5 | 8-8 |
| Miami Dolphins | +800 | 6.5 | 6-10 |
| New York Jets | +850 | 6.5 | 6-10 |
Odds as of Sept. 1st
The Bills haven’t been division champions since 1995.
Buffalo Bills
- 2019 record: 10-6
- Points per game: 19.6 (23rd)
- Points allowed per game: 16.2 (2nd)
- Yards per game: 330.2 (24th)
- Yards allowed per game: 298.3 (3rd)
- Turnover differential: +4 (T10)
A wildcard playoff team last season for the second time in three years, Buffalo lost its first postseason game to Houston in heartbreaking fashion.
Are the Bills ready to take the next step, win the division, and be a playoff performer, as opposed to a postseason participant?
That @JoshAllenQB deep ball is looking dangerous…
(via @BuffaloBills)pic.twitter.com/3GaC5bpCLv
— B/R Gridiron (@brgridiron) August 25, 2020
QB Josh Allen has proven adequate over his two NFL seasons. With Buffalo’s stalwart defense, that’s good enough to get the Bills to the dance but it won’t make them homecoming king. Buffalo supplied Allen with a legitimate #1 receiving threat by acquiring Stefon Diggs from the Minnesota Vikings.
Bills Key Additions and Losses
| Additions | Departures |
|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs WR | Frank Gore RB |
| Josh Norman CB | LaAdrian Waddle OT |
| Mario Addison DE | Stephen Hauschka K |
| AJ Klein LB | Jordan Phillips DT |
| Tyler Matakevich LB | Shaq Lawson DE |
| Quinton Jefferson DE | Kevin Johnson CB |
| Vernon Butler DT | Senorise Perry RB |
| Evan Boehm C | Star Lotulelei DT* |
| Brian Winters G | EJ Gaines CB* |
*COVID-19 opt outs.
Defensively, Buffalo rates up there with the NFL’s elite groups. It all comes down to the offense for the Bills. If Allen moves ahead in his development, great things await.
Prediction 10-6 (first)
New England Patriots
- 2019 record: 12-4
- Points per game: 26.3 (7th)
- Points allowed per game: 14.2 (1st)
- Yards per game: 354.0 (15th)
- Yards allowed per game: 275.9 (1st)
- Turnover differential: +21 (1st)
Is there life after Brady? Patriots fans are about to find out.
In truth, New England rode the NFL’s stiffest and most opportunistic defense to success last season. But several pieces of that group are gone.
Saw this crazy fact: The last 6 Super Bowls have all featured a once Patriots starting QB…
49- Tom Brady
50- Cam Newton
51- Tom Brady
52- Tom Brady
53- Tom Brady
54- Jimmy GaroppoloWill SB 55 feature another former or current Pats QB? 👀 pic.twitter.com/9OoGSx8zTO
— Jordan Moore (@iJordanMoore) August 25, 2020
Linebackers Kyle Van Noy and Jamie Collins departed via free agency, while LB Dont’a Hightower and strong safety Patrick Chung were among a league-high eight COVID-19 opt outs.
Patriots Key Additions and Losses
| Additions | Departures |
|---|---|
| Cam Newton QB | Tom Brady QB |
| Brian Hoyer QB | Kyle Van Noy LB |
| Beau Allen DT | Jamie Collins LB |
| Adrian Phillips S | Stephen Gostkowski K |
| Brandon Copeland LB | Danny Vitale FB* |
| Justin Rohrwasser K | Marcus Cannon T* |
| Tyler Gauthier C | Brandon Bolden RB* |
| Ben Braden G | Patrick Chung S* |
| Xavier Williams DT | Dont’a Hightower LB* |
*COVID-19 opt outs.
The Pats are handing the keys to their offense to QB Cam Newton. Yes, he’s a former NFL MVP. He’s also 0-8 in his last eight starts, with nine touchdown passes against 10 interceptions.
Prediction: 9-7 (2nd)
Miami Dolphins
- 2019 record: 5-11
- Points per game: 19.1 (25th)
- Points allowed per game: 30.9 (32nd)
- Yards per game: 310.0 (27th)
- Yards allowed per game: 397.8 (30th)
- Turnover differential: -10 (27th)
Who were the real Dolphins: the team that opened 0-7, or the team that finished 5-4?
Dolphins Key Additions and Losses
| Additions | Departures |
|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa QB | John Jenkins DT |
| Jordan Howard RB | J’Marcus Webb T |
| Byron Jones CB | Deon Lacey LB |
| Kyle Van Noy LB | Evan Boehm G |
| Ted Karras C | Taco Charlton DE |
| Ereck Flowers G | Nick O’Leary TE |
| Emmanuel Ogbah DE | Reshad Jones S |
| Shaq Lawson DE | Daniel Kilgore C |
| Matt Breida RB | Aqib Talib CB |
| Kamu Grugier-Hill LB | Allen Hurns WR* |
| Kavon Frazier S | Albert Wilson WR* |
*COVID-19 opt outs.
Miami rebuilt its offensive line, added a quality pass rusher in Shaq Lawson, and bolstered the run game via the acquisitions of Matt Breida and Jordan Howard.
When will the offense be given over from veteran QB Ryan Fitzpatrick to first-round pick Tua Tagovailoa?
Right. On. The. Money. Tua Tagovailoa with a 70-yard bomb at Dolphins practice today.
(🎥 via @MiamiDolphins) pic.twitter.com/KOJzgNgYXx
— Touchdown Alabama (@TDAlabamaMag) August 25, 2020
Going to a rookie QB with a defense that the was the NFL’s most porous during the 2019 campaign, the Fins are still a long way from being relevant again.
Prediction: 6-10 (third)
New York Jets
- 2019 record: 7-9
- Points per game: 17.3 (31st)
- Points allowed per game: 22.4 (16th)
- Yards per game: 273.0 (32nd)
- Yards allowed per game: 323.1 (7th)
- Turnover differential: -4 (23rd)
The Jets opened 1-7 and then closed 6-2 in the second half. Injuries to QB Sam Darnold greased the first-half slide.
Awesome back-shoulder throw by Sam Darnold.
Great catch by Le’Veon Bell.
Le’Veon can be a big weapon for Darnold. pic.twitter.com/Rc4Es48yug
— Manish Mehta (@MMehtaSports) September 1, 2020
They’ll need a rebound from RB  Le’Veon Bell, who was a disappointment in his first season with the Jets.
Dolphins Key Additions and Losses
| Additions | Departures |
|---|---|
| Joe Flacco QB | Robby Anderson WR |
| Frank Gore RB | Bilal Powell RB |
| Breshad Perriman WR | Kelvin Beachum T |
| George Fant T | Brandon Shell T |
| Greg Van Roten G | Tom Compton G |
| Pierre Desir S | Trumaine Johnson CB |
| Mekhi Becton T | Jamal Adams S |
| Denzel Mims WR | CJ Mosley LB* |
*COVID-19 opt out.
Defensively, All-Pro safety Jamal Adams was traded to Seattle. Linebacker CJ Mosley opted out of the season.
Prediction: 4-12 (4th)
Sports Writer
An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.
