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2022 NFL Player Prop Picks – Best Season-Long Player Total Bets

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in NFL Football

Updated Sep 8, 2022 · 6:10 AM PDT

Zach Ertz acknowledges the crowd
Jan 9, 2022; Glendale, Arizona, USA; Arizona Cardinals tight end Zach Ertz (86) waves towards the crowd before a home game against the Seattle Seahawks. Nfl Seahawks Vs Cardinals
  • Player props are one of the softest NFL markets to wager on and offer great value for sports bettors
  • Zach Ertz has scored just six touchdowns total in his past two seasons
  • See below for analysis and picks to target in the 2022 NFL season-long player props market

The NFL season is about to kick-off, but before it does there’s still time to get action down in the futures market. Super Bowl, Division winners and win totals are all options, but by far the softest market to target are NFL player props.

That’s because online sportsbooks put more effort into making their other markets as efficient as possible because they generate more revenue from them. As a result, a big opportunity opens up for bettors who are following the news throughout the preseason.

We’ve scoured the season-long player props market, and have identified the following three wagers to target before the 2022 campaign gets underway.

2022 NFL Player Prop Bets

Pick Risk
Zach Ertz Under 4.5 TD (-120) 2 Units
Tee Higgins Over 975.5 Receiving Yards (-134) 2 Units
Christian McCaffrey Over 880.5 Rushing Yards (-112) 1 Unit

Odds as of September 7th at Barstool Sportsbook

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Our betting card starts with a fade of Arizona’s Zach Ertz’s touchdown prospects. Ertz has plenty of red flags heading into his first full season with the Cardinals.

Pick #1: Zach Ertz Under 4.5 TDs

For starters, Ertz is hurt already. The 31-year-old is dealing with a calf issue, and while he finally returned to practice on Wednesday, he didn’t do much and remains a game-time decision to play in Week 1.

Ertz has played in every regular season game just twice in the past seven years, and has reached the 5 TD mark only four times in his nine year career. In three of those seasons he earned 110+ targets and it’s fair to expect him to fall well short of that number this year for a couple of reasons.

First, there is going to be plenty of mouths to feed in Arizona, especially once DeAndre Hopkins returns from his six-game suspension. In addition to Nuk, Marquise Brown, a longshot contender to finish with the most receiving TDs,  as well as Rondale Moore, James Connor and AJ Green will all command a healthy share of targets. Also working against Ertz, is the fact that the Cardinals just spend some serious draft capital on his eventual replacement.

Arizona drafted Trey McBride, the reigning Mackey Award winner for college football’s best tight end, in the second round. Needless to say, they didn’t select him for his blocking prowess after he recorded 90 receptions and 1,121 yards last year at Colorado State.

Pick: Zach Ertz Under 4.5 TD (-120), 2 Units

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Pick #2: Tee Higgins Over 975.5 Receiving Yards

Ja’Marr Chase is generating all the receiving buzz out of Cincinnati this year and rightfully so. Chase lit up the NFL as a rookie in 2021, but let’s not overlook his running mate Tee Higgins.

https://twitter.com/BengalsBrews/status/1567498268015316995

The third year wideout actually drew more targets than Chase on a per game basis in 2021 (7.8 vs 7.5), and reached 1,091 receiving yards in only 14 games. Higgins was also super productive in the playoffs, eclipsing 95 yards three times, as teams focused their coverage on stopping the more explosive Chase.

We should expect a similar approach by enemy defenses this season, which puts Higgins in position to smash in the NFL player props. Also working in his favor, is the expected increase in pass rate for Joe Burrow.

The Bengals deployed a very cautious offense for the bulk of the regular season with Burrow to help shield him from too many unnecessary hits. That strategy shifted down the stretch and in the playoffs to a more pass heavy scheme, which resulted in a ton of success.

With a revamped offensive line we should expect even more pass volume in 2022, which will lead to a higher probability of all Cincy pass catchers exceeding their receiving yards props.

Pick: Tee Higgins Over 975.5 Receiving Yards (-134), 2 Units

Pick #3: Christian McCaffrey Over 880.5 Rushing Yards

It’s safe to say the hate has gone too far on Christian McCaffrey in NFL player props wagering. People are actively looking for ways to fade him because they believe he’s injury prone. Newsflash, he plays arguably the most dangerous position in all of pro sports. Injuries are going to happen.

Still, this number is a slap in the face to CMC. Let’s not forget he averaged 4.9 yards per carry in two full seasons as the Panthers lead back in 2018 and 2019, easily eclipsing 1,000 yards twice. Oh yeah, and he’s still the unquestioned number one pick in all fantasy football formats this season.

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Also working in his favor is improved QB play this season with a healthy Baker Mayfield, which should keep defenses honest. The Panthers also made significant upgrades to their offensive line, most notably in the form of first round mauler Ikem Ekwonu. Add it all up, and McCaffrey is a great value to exceed his rushing yards over/under.

Pick: Christian McCaffrey Over 880.5 Rushing Yards (-112), 1 Unit

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