NFL Regular Season Rushing Totals for RBs in 2022 Season – Early Picks to Go Over/Under
- Dallas Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott is given a total of 850.5 yards in NFL rushing over/under wagering, which would be a career low
- After two injury-plagued seasons, Carolina Panthers back Christian McCaffrey is expected to bounce back strongly and is set at a total of 925.5 yards
- Bettors who play an NFL rushing total over/under on Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson are working with a total of 875.5 yards
Since rushing for an NFL-leading 1,434 yards during the 2018 season, Dallas Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott saw both his carries and yardage decrease in each of the next two seasons. He enjoyed a bit of a rebound last season but oddsmakers are expecting that downward trend to resume during the 2022 campaign.
On the other hand, rushing over/under NFL betting lines are showing the belief that Carolina Panthers running back Christian McCaffrey is in line for a bounce-back season.
2022 NFL Rushing Yardage Over/Under Odds
| Player (Team) | Total Yards | Over Odds | Under Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Akers (Rams) | 925.5 | -112 | -112 |
| Devin Singletary (Bills) | 750.5 | -112 | -112 |
| Josh Allen (Bills) | 550.5 | -112 | -112 |
| Antonio Gibson (Commanders) | 825.5 | -112 | -112 |
| Christian McCaffrey (Panthers) | 925.5 | -112 | -112 |
| D’Andre Swift (Lions) | 925.5 | -112 | -112 |
| Damien Harris (Patriots) | 825.5 | -112 | -112 |
| Daniel Jones (Giants) | 400.5 | -112 | -112 |
| David Montgomery (Bears) | 925.5 | -112 | -112 |
| Elijah Mitchell (49ers) | 900.5 | -112 | -112 |
| Jalen Hurts (Eagles) | 675.5 | -112 | -112 |
| Joe Mixom (Bengals) | 1075.5 | -112 | -112 |
| Jonathan Taylor (Colts) | 1350.5 | -112 | -112 |
| Justin Fields (Bears) | 525.5 | -112 | -112 |
| Lamar Jackson (Ravens) | 875.5 | -112 | -112 |
| Miles Sanders (Eagles) | 850.5 | -112 | -112 |
| Najee Harris (Steelers) | 1120.5 | -112 | -112 |
| Nick Chubb (Browns) | 1150.5 | -112 | -112 |
| AJ Dillon (Packers) | 750.5 | -112 | -112 |
| Austin Ekeler (Chargers) | 800.5 | -112 | -112 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire (Chiefs) | 675.5 | -112 | -112 |
| Dalvin Cook (Vikings) | 1150.5 | -112 | -112 |
| Derrick Henry (Titans) | 1350.5 | -112 | -112 |
| James Conner (Cardinals) | 825.5 | -112 | -112 |
| Josh Jacobs (Titans) | 825.5 | -112 | -112 |
| Kyler Murray (Cardinals) | 500.5 | -112 | -112 |
| Saquon Barkley (Giants) | 850.5 | -112 | -112 |
| Ezekiel Elliott (Cowboys) | 850.5 | -112 | -112 |
| Leonard Fournette (Buccaneers) | 775.5 | -112 | -112 |
| Javonte Williams (Broncos) | 925.5 | -112 | -112 |
| Rashaad Penny (Seahawks) | 750.5 | -112 | -112 |
Odds as of July 22 at FanDuel Sportsbook. Get this FanDuel Sportsbook promo code before making your NFL bets
Which players will go over their rushing totals? Who are the best bets to go under?
Let’s take a look at that.
All rushing over/unders are set with odds of -112 whether they go over or under their total. At that betting line, no matter which way you play it you’ll be given an implied probability of victory of 52.83%. A $10 bet at those odds will bring a payout of $18.90 on a successful wager.
Elliott’s Rushing Numbers In Decline
Last season, Elliott went for 1,002 yards on the ground, his best season in three years. Still, it was a fair cry from the 1,631 yards he rambled for as a rookie in 2016.
There are plenty of reasons to suspect that Elliott won’t be getting anywhere near 1,000 yards on the ground in 2022. For starters, Dallas passes the ball a lot more frequently than the Cowboys did earlier in Elliott’s career. In his first three NFL seasons, Dallas never ranked higher than 22nd in NFL pass rate. Last season, the Cowboys were eighth in the league in this category.
Ezekiel Elliott has 7,386 rushing yards since entering the NFL in 2016.
No one has more.
HBD @EzekielElliott! pic.twitter.com/rEUGExCTKk
— NFL UK (@NFLUK) July 22, 2022
Secondly, Elliott has a capable backup who in fact graded out better than him as a ball carrier last season. Tony Pollard carried the ball 130 times and averaged 5.5 yards per carry (YPC). On Elliott’s 237 carries, his YPC was 4.2. Elliott’s touch rate has shrunk from 78% to 62% over the past three years.
Slotting Elliott down to 850.5 yards this season might seem a steep drop-off from 1,002 yards, but bet on it happening.
Pick: Ezekiel Elliott (Cowboys) under 850.5 yards (-112)
Can McCaffrey Stay Healthy?
Over the past two seasons, injuries have limited Panthers’ running back McCaffrey to playing in 10 of 33 games. McCaffrey had 403 touches during the 2019 NFL season. Over the past two years, he’s accounted for 212 touches. His yards per attempt in each of the past two seasons were below his career rushing average of 4.6 yards.
After back-to-back injury-riddled seasons, Christian McCaffrey & Saquon Barkley are looking to bounce-back in 2022 💪
Which running back will have the better season? 🤔 pic.twitter.com/7OZcXQyJd6
— TWSN (@TWSN___) July 17, 2022
Of the 28 players who’ve had 400+ touches in a single season since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger, only nine ever managed to do it again. Perhaps even more disconcerting for McCaffrey’s future is that backs who’ve missed the majority of consecutive seasons due to injury never rebound to be the player they once were.
Pick: Christian McCaffrey (Panthers) under 925.5 yards (-112)
Count On More Action from Jackson
Injuries kept Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson out of five games last season and he still ended up rushing for 767 yards. Over 17 games, that’s a 1,087-yard pace.
I love @NFL we gone turn up this year I appreciate the @Ravens for coming back in the first round and picking me up 💜🖤 we gone eat https://t.co/848MOMjKI5
— Lamar Jackson (@Lj_era8) July 14, 2022
On the one hand, Jackson’s yardage and yards per carry have declined in each of the past three years since the 2019 campaign, when the defied the NFL MVP odds by rushing for 1,026 yards – an NFL record for a QB – and 6.9 YPC. He led the league in YPC last season. Jackson didn’t last season but still had an impressive 5.8 YPC.
If he stays healthy, Jackson will go over 875.5 yards rushing for fun. For those looking to bet on Jackson’s quarterback passing yards, that total is set at 3,500.5 for the season.
Pick: Lamar Jackson (Ravens) over 875.5 yards (-112)
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An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.
