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5 NFL Props to Bet on Sunday of Week 1: Kamara Will be a Workhorse

Bryan Thiel

by Bryan Thiel in NFL Football

Updated Apr 5, 2020 · 7:23 PM PDT

Alvin Kamara of the New Orleans Saints
With backfield mate Mark Ingram suspended for the first four games of the 2018 NFL season, Alvin Kamara figures to carry the load. (Photo by Roy K. Miller/Icon Sportswire)
  • Could the matchup between Odell Beckham Jr and Jalen Ramsey get ugly on Sunday?
  • Alvin Kamara should see a lot of work with Mark Ingram suspended
  • See the five props you should be focused on in Week 1 of the 2018 NFL season

The NFL is back and that only means one thing: extensive lists of prop bets.

While spreads and over/unders are nice, props are some of the most interesting and lucrative bets on the market.

Let’s take a look at the five best props to bet on Sunday of Week 1.

Prop #1: Ramsey or OBJ Will Cross the Line

Will Jalen Ramsey or Odell Beckham Jr get an Unsportsmanlike Conduct penalty? Odds
Yes +800
No -2500

*All odds taken on 9/08/18

Let’s kick it off with a little fun, shall we?

In Week 1, two of the most enigmatic personalities matchup: Jalen Ramsey of the Jaguars and Odell Beckham Jr of the Giants.

Beckham is now a whole lot richer than when the off-season began. And Ramsey thinks everybody sucks but him.

Both tend to have short tempers, too.

Ramsey has taken three unnecessary roughness penalties in his career, and two unsportsmanlike conduct penalties. OBJ has taken three unsportsmanlike conduct penalties and two unnecessary roughness calls in his career.

Jalen will likely talk the whole time. And push Beckham…literally and figuratively.

What’s the saying? This much dynamite only needs a spark? Bank on the spark. Even if OBJ thinks he’s learned his lesson.

Pick: YES (+800)

Prop #2: Texans will Score First in New England

Team to score first in Week 1 Odds
Houston Texans +130
New England Patriots -150

This may run counter to the popular choice, but go with the Texans here.

First of all, if the Patriots win the toss, expect them to defer. If the Texans win it, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them try to quiet the crowd early.

Either way, the road team gets the ball to start.

In their Week 3 matchup last year, the same thing happened. Houston went three-and-out.

This depends entirely on how Deshaun Watson looks in his first action since tearing his ACL. But a fired up Watson paired with dangerous Houston receivers will prove formidable for the Patriots, especially early in this game.

2017 Regular Season Results Total
Games where Texans scored first 9
Games where Patriots scored first 12

Pick: TEXANS SCORE FIRST (+130)

Prop #3: Kamara will be the Saints’ Workhorse

Alvin Kamara’s carries in Week 1 Odds
19+ carries +161
21+ carries +336
23+ carries +764
25+ carries +1472

Last year the Saints’ backfield was the definition of a timeshare. Rookie Alvin Kamara was on the field for 45% of offensive snaps, while Ingram was on the field for 55%.

This year, with Ingram suspended for the first quarter of the season, it’s purely Kamara’s job.

While Mike Gillislee will likely spell him for a handful of carries, expect Kamara to roll up the numbers on the ground. In two games against Tampa Bay last year the two combined for 22 and 26 carries.

The team logged fewer than 20 carries just three times, and less than 25 five times last year.

If you’re conservative, consider 21 carries the floor for Kamara. 23+ should be a safe bet though.

Pick: 23+ CARRIES FOR ALVIN KAMARA (+764)

Prop #4: Rivers will Pick Apart Chiefs Secondary

Philip Rivers passing TDs vs Chiefs Odds
2+ TD -185
3+ TD +206
4+ TD +808
5+ TD +1800

If history tells us anything, it’s that Philip Rivers has struggled against the Kansas City Chiefs.

Last year, six of Rivers’ ten interceptions came in his two meetings with KC (three each). In the past four seasons, he has thrown multiple touchdowns against the Chiefs just once. The Chargers haven’t beaten Kansas City in eight-straight.

That changes in Week 1.

Marcus Peters is gone. The safeties are banged up. Most of the defensive backfield is asking what they’re supposed to be doing.

Rivers is licking his chops.

Win or lose, expect this one to be a shootout. Rivers will hold up his end of the bargain with at least three touchdowns.

Pick: 3+ PASSING TOUCHDOWNS FOR PHILIP RIVERS (+206)

Prop #5: Jordan Reed will be Targeted Early and Often

Jordan Reed receptions vs Cardinals Odds
5+ catches -145
6+ catches +108
7+ catches +202
8+ catches +430

There’s no mistaking Jordan Reed for Travis Kelce, but that doesn’t mean Reed isn’t talented.

And while Kelce is all-world at the position, he still needed Alex Smith to get him the ball.

So can he do the same thing for one oft-injured TE that he did for the other?

He very likely can. For as much heat as he takes, Smith knows his limitations and doesn’t make mistakes. He excels in short yardage and can get a team downfield.

In 15 games last year, Kelce and Smith hooked up seven or more times on seven occasions.

The Cardinals limited tight ends to 9.7 yards per reception and 6.0 yards/target. Arizona gave up 75 catches to tight ends, or 4.7 a game. But that was with Tyrann Mathieu.

By all accounts, Reed is healthy and Smith loves his tight ends. Six catches in their debut is a good floor for Jordan Reed.

Pick: 6+ RECEPTIONS FOR JORDAN REED

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