After Week 8, Jared Goff Given Best Odds to Lead NFL in Passing During 2019 Season
- The odds on who will lead the NFL in passing yards have been fluid
- Jared Goff is the current favorite but he has a tough road ahead
- Aaron Rodgers is lurking as a sleeper pick
We are at the halfway point of the 2019-20 NFL season and one of the most interesting storylines is the race among quarterbacks for the most passing yards. The quarterback position is of course the marquee position in football and the list of contenders includes bonafide superstars as well as some others that might surprise you.
More important than the storyline for our purposes, of course, is the betting line and we saw some significant movement from last week as to who in fact has the best odds to take home this season’s passing yards title.
There is a new favorite entering Week 9, as Jared Goff takes that position for the first time. He saw a dramatic increase in his odds from last week after throwing for 372 yards in a Los Angeles Rams win over the lowly Cincinnati Bengals.
2019 NFL Passing Yardage Leader Odds
| Player (Team) | Passing Yards (NFL Rank) | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff (Rams) | 2,367(1) | +500 |
| Matt Ryan (Falcons) | 2,,170(8) | +700 |
| Jameis Winston (Buccaneers) | 2,072(12) | +750 |
| Aaron Rodgers (Packers) | 2324(2) | +750 |
| Dak Prescott (Cowboys) | 2,123(10) | +800 |
| Phillip Rivers (Chargers) | 2,315(3) | +800 |
| Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs) | 2,180(7) | +900 |
| Matthew Stafford (Lions) | 2,093(11) | +1000 |
| Tom Brady (Patriots) | 2,251 (5) | +1600 |
| Kyler Murray (Cardinals) | 1,988 (14) | +2500 |
Odds taken Oct. 31.
Is It Worth Betting on Goff?
Goff is currently the favorite at +500 to end the season with the most passing yards (he is the league leader with 2,367 yards heading into Week 9), but is he worth the bet? He’s a bit of an unlikely favorite it seems, as just weeks ago he was looked at as being a disappointment.
However, he does have a history of success, having led the Rams to the Super Bowl just last year (yes, that happened) and in the Rams pass-happy offensive scheme, along with the diminished skills of running back Todd Gurley, Goff figures to pile up many more passing yards in the second half of the season.
Heading into bye week with the W‼️ pic.twitter.com/IUidv0yHyE
— Los Angeles Rams (@RamsNFL) October 28, 2019
On the other hand, Goff’s remaining schedule could cause some problems. After his Week 9 bye, he faces a tough matchup at Pittsburgh before hosting Chicago and then Baltimore, two tough-minded defensive teams. He only faces two cupcakes the remainder of the season, having the pleasure of playing Arizona twice.
Who Are the Other Contenders?
Some other quarterbacks also had significant movement in their odds from Week 8 to Week 9. Matt Ryan went from the favorite at +250 to +700 after a bye week. In one of the more surprising developments, the much-maligned Tampa Bay quarterback Jameis Winston jumped from +1600 last week to +750 this week after throwing for 301 yards in a loss at Tennessee and moving to 12th in passing yards with 2,072. Though inconsistent, Winston has a propensity to put up big numbers and has one of the best receiving corps in the NFL.
Of course, there is a guy named Patrick Mahomes who is still sidelined with a dislocated kneecap, but practiced last week and should be back under center by Week 10 at Tennessee. However, missing two and a half games and then a Week 12 bye will likely be too much lost ground to make up.
#Chiefs coach Andy Reid confirmed Patrick Mahomes will do “a little more” than he did last week at practice.
— BJ Kissel (@ChiefsReporter) October 30, 2019
One contender people may be overlooking is a guy that’s been there, done that. Aaron Rodgers jumped from +1000 last week to +750 this week. He has passed for 2,324 yards, good for second in the league. He has a Week 11 bye, but has some favorable matchups down the stretch versus the New York Giants, Washington and Detroit.
Aaron Rodgers' last two games combined:
48/64 (75%)
734 passing yards
8 touchdown passes#GoPackGo— Dan Cohen (@DanCohenTV) October 28, 2019
While Goff is a solid bet to lead the league in passing yards, based on the weapons at his disposal and his coach’s offensive mind, my money is on Rodgers at a friendly +750 to do what he has done for his entire career: put yards and points on the board. Much has been made of Rodgers having to adjust to a new coach and new system – which he has done for eight weeks – and he is still second in the NFL in passing yards. Expect him to be even more productive down the stretch.
My pick: Aaron Rodgers (+750)
Jamal Murphy is a sportswriter, attorney and Executive Producer/Co-Host of the Bill Rhoden On Sports podcast. Jamal has covered the NBA, NFL, MLB, NHL, college basketball, tennis, and boxing. He has previously written for CBS Local Sports and USAToday.com, among others.
