Best Commanders vs Eagles Same-Game Parlay Picks for TNF Week 11

• Thursday Night Football gets a NFC East showdown between the 7-3 Washington Commanders and 7-2 Philadelphia Eagles
• Tonight’s TNF same-game parlay features an Over/Under pick and calls for a Brotherly Shove TD
• Below, see all three legs of a +700 Commanders vs Eagles SGP for Thursday Night Football

Disagree with me and my SGP all you want, but tonight’s Thursday Night Football matchup won’t be the shootout we saw last week. It’ll still be a battle, however, just one fought in the trenches, when the Washington Commanders take on the Philadelphia Eagles for control of the NFC East. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15 pm ET.

Commanders vs Eagles Same-Game Parlay Picks

Despite hitting last week’s Bengals vs Ravens SGP, I regret not going with a riskier line. Hitting two anytime TD picks was great, but seeing Ja’Marr Chase score three TDs overall means money was left on the table. Likewise, when I took Joe Burrow to hit 300+ yards, only for him to go over 400 instead. But the SGP paid out, so a win is a win.

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That’s why I’m again trusting my gut on how Commanders vs Eagles will play out for this week’s NFL SGP bet. I’m expecting a run-heavy, lower scoring game, but not without its share of red zone, “tush push” action. This week’s Commanders vs Eagles SGP adds up to +700, where a $100 bet will net a profit of $700, but only if all three legs hit.

Ian’s 2024 NFL SGP Record: 3-6, +15.83 units

Commanders vs Eagles Same-Game Parlay Pick #1: Total Under 48.5 Points

I know I’m in the minority with my first SGP leg: Commanders vs Eagles will not be high scoring. I know that doesn’t make sense since these two teams average 29.0 and 25.9 PPG, respectively, but hear me out.

First, it’s an understatement to say Washington and Philadelphia like to run the ball. Going into Week 11, the Eagles run game is first in attempts, second in yards, and second in TDs, while the Commanders are respectively third, third, and first in those categories.

None of this is surprising when the likes of Brian Robinson Jr., Austin Ekeler, Saquon Barkley, Jayden Daniels, and Jalen Hurts have their hands on the ball.

However, run plays eat up the clock, so the question becomes how effective will either team be on the ground. For Washington, that could become problematic when facing an Eagles defense that’s 5th in rush yards allowed, tied for 5th in TDs, and 2nd in Run Stop Win Rate.

I’m also not convinced that a Kliff Kingsbury offense will outduel a Vic Fangio defense. The two have never gone head-to-head directly, but the influence of their schemes have clashed. Twice, in fact, in 2022, and both times the Fangio-adjacent teams won.

Denver’s then-DC Ejiro Evero ran a defensive blueprint created by Fangio the year prior, and held Kingsbury’s Cardinals to 15 points and just 240 yards. Of course, that particular game featured Colt McCoy & Trace McSorley in the backfield. It’s a miracle Arizona got any points, let alone 15.

But when facing the highly-mobile Kyler Murray earlier that season, the Fangio-consulted Eagles also held Arizona to just 17 points and 363 yards.

This is my long-winded way of saying that Kingsbury offenses don’t run up the score against Fangio-adjacent defenses. Tonight, he gets Fangio and his deceptively complex schemes. If Philly is controlling the game on the ground, they won’t need to pile on the points, either.

Commanders vs Eagles Same-Game Parlay Pick #2: Jayden Daniels Completions Under 19.5

The Commanders’ rookie QB has been electric since Day 1, bringing renown back to the franchise overnight with his arm and his feet. It’s the latter that’ll incidentally impact this leg of the parlay.

Why do rush attempts matter? Just like in SGP Pick #1, the clock will constantly be running when the ball’s on the ground. Offensive opportunities will be limited. Who benefits in that scenario? The team that dominates possession.

In addition to leading the league in rushing attempts, the Eagles are also Top 4 for time of possession. In fact, Philly’s ball control is trending upward lately, averaging over 34 minutes per game over their last three, compared to a season average of 32:28.

Logically, if the Eagles have the ball more, Washington will have it less. And, again, the clock will always be running.

However, if Washington falls behind early, which I don’t see happening, only then will Daniels start firing from the pocket. Even if that’s the case, he’ll still have to contend with the Eagles’ second-ranked pass defense. That in itself will not be easy.

#Eagles pass defense since Week 6:

#1 in EPA/Dropback
#1 in Success Rate/Dropback
#1 in Explosive Pass Rate
#1 in YAC/reception

Pretty good! 🔊🔊 pic.twitter.com/mjt1vvIYMG

— Fran Duffy (@FDuffyNFL) November 12, 2024

This isn’t to say Daniels will be ineffective in the pocket; instead, I think he’ll have fewer chances to shake things up.

And it’s not for nothing, but rookie starting QBs are 0-9-1 against the Eagles since 2016, while Fangio defenses are 6-2 against rookie starting QBs over the last 5 seasons.

Commanders vs Eagles Same-Game Parlay Pick #3: Jalen Hurts Anytime TD

I have no qualms with riding the current Jalen Hurts TD parade. It’s hard to go against a guy that cannot be stopped from one yard, especially when a touchdown is on the line.

After all, Hurts has eight rushing touchdowns in his last four games! If your mind wasn’t just boggled, go reread that last sentence.

Jalen Hurts has 8 rushing TDs in his last 4 games – that is the most by a QB in any 4 game span in NFL history @NFLPlus

— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) November 11, 2024

In 99 red zone plays this season, the Eagles have put it on the ground 70 times, with 30 of those runs coming from Ol’ Jalen Two Shoes. That’s more RZ rush attempts than Barkley, their primary back.

Furthermore, all ten of Hurts’ TDs this season have come from inside the red zone; that’s ten touchdowns on just thirty runs! Only Barkley comes close with six RZ TDs, while four other Eagles have one RZ TD apiece.

Philadelphia unquestionably has big-time players, but when near the end zone, they may as well give it to Hurts and help shove him the rest of the way.

Also see:

• Commanders vs Eagles Predictions
• Commanders vs Eagles Player-Prop Picks