Best Steelers vs Browns Same-Game Parlay Picks for TNF Week 12
By Ian Jones in NFL Football
Published:
- The Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns face off tonight on Thursday Night Football
- Tonight’s TNF same-game parlay features an ATS pick, a pair of offensive milestones, and even a special-teams leg
- Below, see all four legs of a +750 Steelers vs Browns SGP for Thursday Night Football
Without question, tonight’s SGP is demonstrably one-sided, but that’s what you get when an eight-win team is squaring up against an eight-loss team. You should still expect a typical AFC North battle, however, when the Pittsburgh Steelers take on the Cleveland Browns on Thursday Night Football. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15 pm ET.
Steelers vs Browns Same-Game Parlay Picks
| Picks | Odds |
|---|---|
| Steelers -3.5 | -110 |
| Russell Wilson 175+ Passing Yards | -145 |
| Najee Harris Over 17.5 Rushing Attempts | -120 |
| Steelers to Score First Field Goal | -125 |
| TOTAL PIT vs CLE SGP ODDS | +625 |
I was right to go with my gut in last week’s Commanders vs Eagles SGP, but it all fell apart in the dying moments. All I needed was for Jayden Daniels to stop throwing the ball and accept his fate instead of chasing a 16-point deficit in the last two minutes. I don’t blame him for not going gently into that good night, but I sure wish he would have.
For this week’s NFL SGP bet, I’m leaning heavily on the Steelers to control the game on the ground on a wet and windy night in Cleveland. This week’s Steelers vs Browns SGP adds up to +625, where a $100 bet will net a profit of $625, but only if all four legs hit.
Ian’s 2024 NFL SGP Record: 3-7, +14.83 units
Steelers vs Browns Same-Game Parlay Pick #1: Steelers -3.5
Without checking, I knew I’d be in the majority backing Pittsburgh tonight. But if you are curious about today’s NFL public betting trends, here they are: at -200, the Steelers are getting 99% of the moneyline handle and 92% of all moneyline bets.
And that’s why I’m looking at a spread play instead, where the Steelers vs Browns odds favor Pittsburgh by just -3.5.
First, Pittsburgh is 8-2 ATS in 2024, tied for best in the NFL. Conversely, the Browns are 3-7 ATS, good enough for fourth-worst in the league.
They’ve also just finished two weeks of tough football, stifling the elite offenses of Baltimore and Washington, whereas the Browns came out of a bye week and lost by three touchdowns to the 4-7 Saints.
Head-to-head, the Steelers are 7-3 ATS against the Browns in their last ten. It’s worth noting that the three losses were in Cleveland, just like how it’s worth noting those Steelers teams were led by Mason Rudolph, Mitch Trubisky, and Kenny Pickett. Take those losses with as many grains of salt as your doctor recommends.
Pittsburgh will be better on the short week and will construct a short-week game plan more effectively than Cleveland.
If you’re feeling daring, I’d even consider taking an alternate ATS line for the Steelers. For example, Pittsburgh is currently getting +133 to cover -6.5. That’s how confident I am in the Steelers on Thursday, or, if you’re a “glass half empty” type, how little faith I have in the Browns.
Steelers vs Browns Same-Game Parlay Pick #2: Russell Wilson 175+ Passing Yards
If I’m being honest, 175+ passing yards for Russell Wilson may be a little conservative, but I’m OK with going light here to build a winning parlay.
Despite the sample size, Wilson’s passing numbers with the Steelers are solid. He’s gone over 200 yards in three of his games and fell just short in the fourth. This includes 278 and 264-yard performances against the Giants and Jets, respectively the third and fourth-best passing defenses.
Sunday’s win was far from Russell Wilson’s best game as Steelers QB but these vertical sideline shots to George Pickens are a cheat code.
The accuracy on this. pic.twitter.com/L1f0LgYRAH
— Daniel Valente (@StatsGuyDaniel) November 19, 2024
Respect where it’s due, the Browns defense can show up for games, even when they’re losing: they’ve held six teams to under 200 pass yards this season. Then again, those all came in their first six games, back when there was still hope in the building.
But the main reason I’m going with a lower passing milestone is the weather. Thursday night in Cleveland is looking to be cold and rainy.
It’s been nearly three years since Wilson played a 40-degree game in the rain, when he hung 236 yards and 4 TDs on Detroit, back when the Lions were terrible.
It may have been a typical windy, rainy PNW day, but the banks of Lake Erie are supposedly going to be windier and rainier Thursday night.
Pittsburgh will still throw the ball, it’s Russell Wilson after all, but I can’t imagine the Steelers will take to the air often against a team whose defense will show up for a divisional dogfight.
Steelers vs Browns Same-Game Parlay Pick #3: Najee Harris Over 17.5 Rushing Attempts
Who else will benefit from all that rain and wind? Najee Harris, that’s who! It’s one of those give-and-take things in the NFL: it’s scientifically proven that less passes lead to more carries.
And Harris will get plenty of opportunities with the rock tonight. Currently 6th in rush attempts with 175, while also posting 70.8 YPG, his numbers have only gone up with Wilson under center.
Another narrative to blow up…Najee Harris “is a JAG.”
Separate the OL from the RB, please. pic.twitter.com/0KyNmz1HNt
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) November 17, 2024
Over the last four games, Harris is averaging 19.75 A/G with Wilson as QB1, compared to the 16.0 in six games with Justin Fields under center.
A lower Y/A total won’t affect his number of carries, either, especially if coach Mike Tomlin wants to eat up the clock. Against Washington and Baltimore, arguably the worst and best rush defenses in the NFL this season, Harris respectively posted Y/A’s 2.5 and 3.5, while still netting 21 and 18 carries.
Oh, he also has zero fumbles this season. Tomlin will trust him with the rock in tonight’s soupy weather.
Steelers vs Browns Same-Game Parlay Pick #4: Steelers 1st Field Goal Made
Maybe I’m still impressed by the Pittsburgh needing all six field goals to beat the Ravens, but all of a sudden I’m feeling like a special teams prop bet is necessary.
For the season, Pittsburgh’s Chris Boswell is 29 for 30, making him No. 1 for FGM and No. 2 for FGA. On top of that:
- His only miss came from 62 yards!
- There’s only been one game this season where he didn’t kick a FG!
- He’s kicked the game’s first FG in his last four games!
Also worth noting is how the Steelers are currently sixteenth in the league in Red Zone Scoring Percentage (86.1% ), but are third-worst in RZ TD% (44.4%). They’re only average when it comes to red zone scoring because of Boswell’s prolific kicking.
In fairness, this leg of the SGP can arguably be called a coin flip, quite literally in fact, as it will be influenced by who wins the flip to start the game. But even if Pittsburgh “wins” and defers possession, they should be able to stop the first Cleveland drive and move the ball far more purposefully than the Browns.
By all means leave this one out of your parlay, as doing so will drop it to a 3-legged SGP totaling +455, but I’m going to keep it in for that deliciously sweet juice.
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MLB, NFL & MLS Writer
With a background in content marketing, literature, and design, Ian has been bringing a little bit of everything to SBD since 2021. In addition to having penned articles for Eighty-Six Forever, Ian can and will talk your ear off over almost any sport you can think of.
