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Best Week 11 NFL Parlays and Teasers

Ryan Metivier

by Ryan Metivier in NFL Football

Updated Nov 19, 2023 · 5:23 AM PST

Detroit Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs (26) celebrates with running back David Montgomery (5) after scoring a touchdown
Nov 12, 2023; Inglewood, California, USA; Detroit Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs (26) celebrates with running back David Montgomery (5) after scoring a touchdown against the Los Angeles Chargers during the first half at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports
  • We’re scouring the board on Sunday to pick out top NFL parlay predictions and teaser picks
  • Will Dallas, Detroit and Jacksonville cruise as big Week 11 favorites?
  • Read on to see our breakdown of this week’s best parlays and teasers to target this weekend

What could go wrong? Week 11 sees as many as three teams lined as double-digit favorites and seven as favorites of a touchdown or more. Perfect week for NFL parlays and teasers? Or will it be a week littered with traps and NFL upsets?

Let’s dive into this week’s NFL parlays and teasers and break down our our picks from seven different games.

Week 11 Parlay Picks

Matchup Pick (Odds)
Cowboys vs Panthers -550
Bears vs Lions -380
Titans vs Jaguars -320
TOTAL ODDS -104

We’ve grouped together three of the weekend’s bigger favorites in the Cowboys, Lions and Jaguars into our Week 11 parlay for get -104 odds at ESPN BET.

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NFL Week 11 Parlay Picks

This week’s NFL parlay predictions are backing two home favorites getting the best of their divisional foes, plus the Cowboys going on the road and beating up on another poor team in the Panthers.

Cowboys vs Panthers

  • Pick: Cowboys

The Cowboys beat up on bad teams. They have wins over the Giants (40-0), Jets (30-10), Patriots (38-3), Rams (43-20) and Giants again last week (49-17).

This just in, the Panthers are a bad team. They’re 1-8 SU and 1-6-2 ATS.

They have losses to the Falcons (24-10), Seahawks (37-27), Lions (42-24), Dolphins (42-21) and Colts (27-13).

In the past three weeks the Panthers have scored 13, 13 and 15 points. That’s not enough to hang with Dak and Cowboys who are averaging a tick shy of 30 PPG (29.9) as the league’s second-highest-scoring team.

Bears vs Lions

  • Pick: Lions

First place in the NFC North Detroit (7-2 SU, 7-2 ATS) hosts last place Chicago (3-7 SU, 3-5-2 ATS). It’s the first meeting between them this season but Detroit has won the last two games last season 41-10 in Detroit and 31-30 in Chicago.

Justin Fields looks to be coming back from a thumb injury this week but the Bears weren’t good with him earlier this season. And he’ll surely have some rust having not played since October 15.

We could see points in this game. Chicago is 6-4 to the Over, while Detroit is 5-4.

Jared Goff is fifth in league passing and just carved up another poor secondary last week in the Chargers, throwing for 333 yards and 2 TDs.

Detroit is the league’s sixth-highest scoring offense (26.8 PPG) and should take advantage of a Bears’ D that is 27th in PPG allowed and 26th in passing yards allowed.

Titans vs Jaguars

  • Pick: Jaguars

The Jags came out of their bye week last game and laid an egg getting thumped 34-3 at home to the 49ers. It was their worst home loss since 2019. They had been riding a five-game winning streak prior.

Will Levis came out strong in his first game with four passing touchdowns. That earned him a starting spot for the rest of the season but since that game he has zero touchdowns and two interceptions. Last week he threw for only 199 yards and was sacked four times for the second game in a row in Tennessee’s 20-6 road loss in Tampa Bay. It was the Titans’ fourth loss in five games and dropped them to 3-6 SU, 4-5 ATS and 0-5 SU on the road.

Mike Vrabel is 29-21-1 ATS as a dog with Tennessee and he may elect to lean on Derrick Henry in the run game, but Jacksonville is actually fifth in run defense giving up just 86.4 YPG. Whether Vrabel adds to his underdog ATS record or not won’t be relevant in our parlay picks so long as the Jags bounce back after a heavy loss to weaker opposition and win straight up.

Week 11 Teaser Picks

Matchup Pick (Teaser Odds)
Raiders vs Dolphins Dolphins -3.5 (-445)
Buccaneers vs 49ers 49ers -2.5 (-524)
Chargers vs Packers Chargers +7.5 (-740)
Jets vs Bills Bills +4.5 (-770)
TOTAL ODDS -115

My Week 11 teaser picks include four teams in the Dolphins, 49ers, Chargers and Bills and comes in at -115 odds.

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NFL Week 11 Teaser Picks

In our Week 11 teaser, we’ve bet down the Dolphins and 49ers to more manageable small favorites over the Raiders and Bucs, and flipped both the Chargers and Bills from favorites into underdogs.

I’ve created this teaser by choosing alternate spreads at DraftKings, but you should be able to do so at most of the best NFL betting apps as well.

Raiders vs Dolphins

  • Pick: Dolphins -3.5

Miami went to Germany and lost 21-14 to the Chiefs. That’s about par for the course with Miami. They’re 0-3 versus teams with a winning record this season. In fact, they haven’t beaten a team with a winning record since Week 3 of last year.

But Miami are the other bullies in this league. Much like Dallas, they also beat up on bad teams. And once again, despite winning two straight, the Raiders are another bad team.

Las Vegas is 5-5 and that is shocking to comprehend. They’re 27th in PPG and have a -33 point-differential.

It’s great to win two straight, but wins over the Jets and Giants are nothing to get excited about. The Jets game was 9-9 heading into the fourth so could’ve gone either way and if Zach Wilson was a moderately capable starting quarterback, it surely would have been a Jets win.

Aidan O’Connell isn’t much better. He threw for only 153 yards versus the Jets. In his four games this season he has just two passing touchdowns.

The Raiders already have lopsided road losses by 28, 18 and 12 points this season. The Dolphins already have big home wins of 50, 15, 21 and 14 points. The NFL lines make Miami heavy 13.5-point favorites but that may not be enough in this one.

Buccaneers vs 49ers

  • Pick: 49ers -2.5

The arrow looks to be pointing back up for the 49ers. They won five straight, lost three straight but came out of the bye last week with an impressive 34-3 road win over the previously 6-2 Jaguars. Brock Purdy threw for 296 yards and three touchdowns, Christian McCaffrey combined for 142 yards but saw his 17-game touchdown streak come to an end and George Kittle topped 100 yards receiving with 111 and 1 TD.

San Fran also held Trevor Lawrence to just 185 yards passing, zero TDs and forced him into two INTs. The 49ers dominated in nearly every statistical category and outgained the Jags 437 to 221 in total yards.

The Bucs won 20-3 at home last week but that came against the now 3-6 Titans and rookie QB Will Levis. It was also their only win in their past five games.

Both teams snapped losing streaks last week but it’s the 49ers who will start a new winning streak Sunday.

Chargers vs Packers

  • Pick: Chargers +7.5

Some way, some how, Chargers games always come down to the wire no matter if it looks like a game they should win or lose. This game looks like a game they should or could win. At least the NFL odds say so, making them 3-point road favorites in Lambeau.

In their nine games this season five have been decided by four points or less. The other four were wins of 7, 17 and 21, plus a road loss of 14 in Kansas City. So despite a 4-5 record SU and ATS, the Chargers hang around in every game.

The Packers are 3-6 SU and 4-5 ATS and they too have seen 5/9 games this season finish between four points or less. After an 18-point win over the Bears in Week 1, their other two wins were by 1 and 17 points. But that 17-point win has an asterisk as they got a Rams team playing with backup QB Brett Rypien.

That Rams win is also their only win in their past six games. It’s also the only time they’ve scored 20 or more points in their past five. They’ve only scored 20 points twice in their past seven games. When you’re averaging just 16.7 PPG in your last seven games it’s hard to see Green Bay getting any sort of win, much less a win by over a touchdown. Which is what will be needed here in our teaser picks.

The only concern was a Keenan Allen injury who’s dealing with a sprained AC joint from last week. However, he has said he’ll be playing Sunday.

Jets vs Bills

  • Pick: Bils +4.5

It’s a rematch of Week 1 that saw the Jets pull the upset winning 22-16 in overtime off a Xavier Gibson 65-yard punt return touchdown. That, after Aaron Rodgers tore his Achilles on the fourth play of the game. That has thrust backup Zach Wilson into the starting role and it’s been ugly to watch. The Jets are 30th in PPG, 29th in YPG and 30th in passing YPG.

Historically, the Jets haven’t had much success over the Bills of late being just 2-5 SU in the past seven meetings. That one other win came by three points.

This season, the Jets have four wins, but only one in their past three. They also only have one touchdown in their past three games, with that one score coming in the first quarter against the Giants, a 13-10 Jets win. Since that time it’s been nothing but field goals. With New York losing 27-6 to the Chargers and 16-12 to the Raiders. So it’s been a combined 11 quarters since Gang Green has found the darkly shaded area on either side of the field.

Now Buffalo looks to be in turmoil themselves, sitting at just 5-5 and losers of three of four SU and riding an 0-6 ATS run. After losing 24-22 at home to Denver on MNF, they’ll be coming into Week 11 off a short week and with a new OC. Ken Dorsey took the fall for the Bills struggles and Joe Brady steps in on an interim basis.

Both the Jets and Bills are tied with forcing 15 turnovers this season. The Bills have turned the ball over 18 times (second-most) while the Jets have turned it over 14, tied-12th most. Josh Allen is personally responsible for 11 of those 18 turnovers, leading the league with 11 INTs. He could be in for a long day versus the Jets who are sixth in yards allowed per game and seventh in points.

This game could get sloppy. The Bills at home should look to rally after Dorsey’s dismissal and their Week 1 loss. But they’re a hard group to trust right now. They do at least score, with 22, 18, 24 and 25 points in their last four. Manage anything close to that and even in a loss, it’s hard to see Wilson and the Jets winning by more that four. Let’s flip the Bills from -7 to +4.5 to round out our NFL Week 11 parlays and teasers.

  • Week 11 NFL Teaser picks: Dolphins -3.5 / 49ers -2.5 / Chargers +7.5 / Bills +4.5 (-115); risk 1 unit at DraftKings

Season record: 9-11, -3.28 units

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