Bills’ Totals Have Gone Under in All 5 Games in 2019; Should You Bet This Trend in Week 7?
- Bills’ totals have finished “Under” in all five games in 2019
- The average margin in Bills games has been ten points “Under” the total
- The total is set at 40.5 for Sunday’s matchup with Miami
Thanks to the Buffalo defense, and some help from poor opposing offenses, Buffalo has been a great team for “Under” bettors in 2019. Through five games, the Bills have yet to be involved in a game that finished over the total in NFL betting results.
A look at the NFL sports betting trends indicates that this has a good chance of continuing. The Bills are finishing “Under” every week, and they’re doing so by an average margin of ten points.
Now in Week 7, Miami comes to town, and the Dolphins vs Bills total is listed at 40.5.
Dolphins vs Bills Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Miami | +17 (-115) | +700 | O 40.5 (-115) |
| Buffalo | – 17 (-105) | -1400 | U 40.5 (-105) |
Odds taken 10/18/19.
This is the second-lowest total in a Bills game in 2019. That’s no surprise, considering that Miami has also finished “Under” the total on a regular basis. The Dolphins hold a 1-4 mark against the number, and are averaging an abysmal 8.4 points per game.
Bills 2019 Results
| Opponent | Final Score | Total | Result (Margin) |
|---|---|---|---|
| @ New York Jets | 17-16 | 41 | U (-8) |
| @ New York Giants | 28-14 | 44.5 | U (-2.5) |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 21-17 | 43.5 | U (-5.5) |
| New England Patriots | 16-10 | 41.5 | U (-15.5) |
| @ Tennessee Titans | 14-7 | 39.5 | U (-18.5) |
Not only are Bills’ games consistently finishing “Under” the total, but they are trending towards bigger margins. They’ve only finished closer than five points away from the total once, and in the last two weeks, they’ve been over 15 points shy of the number.
Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills
| 1-4 | Over/Under | 0-5 |
| 8.4 | Points Per Game | 18.0 |
| 36.0 | Points Allowed Per Game | 14.0 |
Should You Follow the Trend?
The Bills allow under 200 passing yards and 100 rushing yards per game. With a Dolphin offense that scores only 8.4 points a game, it’s tough to see Ryan Fitzpatrick and company contributing much to the total on Sunday.
That’s especially the case when star players are either traded, or on the verge of being traded, on a seemingly weekly basis.
Here’s Kenyan Drake addressing trade rumors today reported by @RapSheet #Dolphins pic.twitter.com/XzyfC0Sd0D
— Mike Cugno (@MikeCugnoCBS4) October 17, 2019
In their own right, Buffalo is averaging only 18 points per game, and the gameplan has become very clear for the Bills. The defense is playing well enough that the offense can be conservative, and the primary goal has been to protect the ball and limit the risks for Josh Allen.
That isn’t to say Allen hasn’t made his fair share of nice throws, but Buffalo is still being wary of asking him to do too much.
First career @NFL game.
First career touchdown catch. #BUFvsTEN | #GoBills pic.twitter.com/eHJeEdleUr— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) October 6, 2019
Obviously, they hope Allen can grow into a more consistent thrower, but as the young quarterback develops, they want to win games primarily with defense and a physical running game.
That’s a big part of the reason that the Bills play so many close games, even against poor teams. When you shorten the game, you limit the opportunities to extend the lead. Only one Bills game has finished with a margin of more than seven points, and against the lowly Bengals, Buffalo came away with only a four-point victory.
On Sunday, it’s safe to say the trend of low-scoring affairs will continue in Buffalo.
With four years as radio host with The Ticket Sports Network and various written contributions to publications such as Fansided, Southbound and Down, and Last Word on Sports, Jake Mitchell comes to SBD with NFL, NBA, NCAAM, NCAAF and MMA know-how you can count on.
