Browns vs Broncos Week 15 Props: DaeSean Hamilton Breaks Out
- The Cleveland Browns face the Denver Broncos on Saturday night (8:20pm EST) of Week 15
- How much will the Mile High crowd affect Baker Mayfield?
- See three NFL player props to consider for the game
Just when you were thinking there aren’t enough days of the week with football on, the NFL has come through with a couple Saturday games to ensure all that Christmas shopping gets put off for another day.
The second game of the day features the Cleveland Browns heading to Denver to take on the Broncos at 8:20pm EST (December 15th). If you’re looking for the moneyline and spread, see our Browns vs Broncos Odds and Predictions.
We’ll focus solely on the team and player props available for this game from here out.
Prop #1: DaeSean Hamilton Breaks Out
| Receiving Yards for DaeSean Hamilton in Week 15 | Odds |
|---|---|
| 48+ | -115 |
| 63+ | +142 |
| 78+ | +264 |
| 93+ | +450 |
*Odds taken 12/14
When the Denver Broncos traded Demaryius Thomas to the Houston Texans, Courtland Sutton was supposed to be the primary beneficiary.
But the second-round pick has only averaged 49.6 receiving yards per contest in the five games since Thomas was traded. What’s more concerning, though, is the 13 receptions on 28 targets.
Sutton is second in the league in drops (7) and drop percentage (15.9%) in the NFL this season.
Pair that with a quarterback in Case Keenum who has been extremely conservative with the ball lately, refusing to give Sutton jump-ball opportunities, and you’re seeing an extremely talented receiver not being utilized properly.
Courtland Sutton’s snap rates the last four games: 89%, 74%, 69%, 69%
On Sunday Tim Patrick played 86% of snaps. DaeSean Hamilton was out there for 97%. It’s the second straight week Hamilton has played more than Sutton (80% vs 69% Week 13).
— J3ff Miller (@FFJeffM) December 10, 2018
As a result, DaeSean Hamilton, who has taken over Emmanuel Sanders’ role in the slot, has become the receiver Keenum trusts the most.
Hamilton played 97% of the Broncos offensive snaps, a high among receivers, in his first start against the 49ers on Sunday.
Every target for DAESEAN HAMILTON week 14 vs. 49ers#BroncosCountry
9 tgts, 7 catches, 47 yds, TD pic.twitter.com/NiXPhbgRvO
— PirateLife Football (@PirateLifeFF) December 12, 2018
I don’t foresee this changing in Week 15 against a Browns defense that ranks 31st against the pass. I do expect him to see even more targets than the nine he saw in Week 14, though.
If you want to play this one safe, take the 63+ at +142 odds. I’m going bigger, though.
Pick: DaeSean Hamilton to record 78+ receiving yards in Week 15 (+264)
Prop #2: Jarvis Landry Picks on Broncos Secondary
| Jarvis Landry Prop | Odds |
|---|---|
| 6+ Receptions in Week 15 | +114 |
| 81+ Receiving Yards in Week 15 | +133 |
| Parlay | +168 |
Last week we saw TE George Kittle embarrass the Broncos secondary for 210 yards and 1 TD on 7 catches in just the first half.
I can see why the logical solution this week may be to bet David Njoku. Denver has allowed the most yards per game to TEs in the NFL. But 426 of those 977 yards came from Kittle and Travis Kelce.
Baker Mayfield 51-yard TD to Jarvis Landry. Placed the ball perfectly. pic.twitter.com/UTngcxmVi5
— NFL Update (@MySportsUpdate) December 9, 2018
Njoku is not the same kind of tight end. This is why I’m going with Jarvis Landry to be the guy who takes advantage of a weakened Broncos secondary.
Since Freddie Kitchens took over the Browns offense in Week 9, Cleveland has not force-fed the ball to Landry. The former Dolphin is only averaging four receptions on six targets and 52.4 receiving yards per game in those five games.
#Browns Week 14 Utilization Report
WR Jarvis Landry continues to work deeper second week in a row (aDOTs of 18.5 and 21.8)
RB Nick Chubb season high targets w/ 6 (led team)
According to @PFF Chubb leads all runners w/ 4.6 yards after contact per carry; 4th in YAC yds (663) pic.twitter.com/itXMBdrLLs
— Context Matters (@dwainmcfarland) December 11, 2018
But Landry will likely see a lot of Justin Simmons on Saturday night, who has allowed a 105.3 passer rating when targeted. This is the matchup the Browns will look to exploit.
Pick: 6+ receptions and 81+ receiving yards for Jarvis Landry in Week 15 (+168)
Prop #3: Mayfield Has More TD Passes Than Keenum
| Prop | Odds |
|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield Has More Passing TDs Than Case Keenum | -122 |
This is my safe play of the night.
Case Keenum has only thrown five touchdown passes in the last five games, and has thrown less than two touchdowns in eight of Denver’s 13 games this season.
He has also struggled when pressured this year, and you can expect Myles Garrett to be in his face often in a matchup with Garett Bolles.
Case Keenum’s completion percentage drops by 26.4% when pressured this season (6th-largest decrease in NFL among 32 qualifying QB)
– Keenum: 41.7 comp pct under pressure (7th-lowest in NFL)
– Keenum: 68.1 comp pct when not pressured (12th-lowest in NFL) pic.twitter.com/GOl3E0eE6y
— James Palmer (@JamesPalmerTV) December 14, 2018
Baker Mayfield has only thrown two touchdowns in the last two weeks, matching Keenum, but he threw nine in the previous three games.
It’s not even the quarterbacks, though, that have be so into this prop. It’s how each team fares against the run that has me jumping all over Baker here.
The Broncos have only given up eight rushing touchdowns this season, the fifth-fewest in the league. And four of those came against two of the NFL’s best offenses: the Rams and Chiefs.
Meanwhile, the Browns have given up 17 rushing TDs, the third-most in the NFL.
Pick: Baker Mayfield to have more Passing TDs than Case Keenum (-122)
After working in TV, Matt turned his focus towards numbers, specifically odds. He has been with us since 2016 and serves as SBD's Editor-in-Chief, credited with creating our futures trackers, SBD's score predictor, SBD Sharp, and his own model for calculating NFL SOS, among other products.
