Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets Public Betting and Money Percentages for MNF
- The public is all over the Jets as 2-point underdogs ahead of their Week 1 Monday Night Football matchup with the Bills in the Bills vs Jets public betting
- Over 45.5 is drawing the bulk of the tickets on the total, but sharps appear to leaning towards the under
- Don’t miss all the Bills vs Jets public betting splits for Monday Night Football on September 11
Home underdogs in Week 1 divisional games have been money in the bank dating back to 2012. It seems the public is all-in on that trend ahead of tonight’s Monday Night Football matchup between the Bills and Jets, as money is pouring in on New York ahead of kick-off when analyzing the Bills vs Jets public betting trends.
Bills vs Jets Betting Percentages
| Team | Spread | ATS Handle% | ATS Bet% | Total Points | O/U Handle% | O/U Bet% | Moneyline | ML Handle% | ML Bet% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | -2 | 20% | 6% | 45.5 | 57% | 67% | -125 | 89% | 68% |
| NY Jets | +2 | 80% | 94% | 45.5 | 43% | 33% | +110 | 11% | 32% |
Tthe Jets are currently drawing 94% of the ATS money on Monday morning. New York opened up as a 2.5-point underdog to Buffalo when NFL odds were first released, but heavy Jets action has brought the number down to -2 at most online sportsbooks, with some books even going to -1.5.
Odds as of September 11 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Be sure to claim a DraftKings promo code to bet on Monday Night Football and get $200 by betting just $5 for all new customers.
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NFL Spread Betting Splits Favor Jets
Entering this week, home ‘dogs in divisional games were 15-2 against the spread over the last 11 seasons in the NFL betting odds. On Sunday, teams in that scenario went 1-2, with Cleveland winning outright versus Cincinnati.
On paper the Bills and Jets are very evenly matched, and the public clearly thinks the value lies with New York. Per the NFL public betting trends, the Jets are drawing 80% of the spread handle, and newcomer Aaron Rodgers has thrived when catching points at home in his career.
"This is the most talented roster the Jets have ever had."
Former Jets HC Rex Ryan has HIGH praise for the 2023 squad 😳 pic.twitter.com/qQdde3Ffxf
— NFL on ESPN (@ESPNNFL) September 10, 2023
Rodgers is 6-1-1 ATS as a home ‘dog, and 12-3 ATS in the first two weeks of the season versus divisional opponents. Historically, underdogs on Monday Night Football have been a strong bet, as they’re 28-12-1 against the number since 1998.
On the other side, the Bills are no stranger to ATS success to start the season. Since 2003, Buffalo is a league best 14-6 ATS in Week 1 games per our Bills vs Jets picks. Josh Allen is a true primetime performer, going 6-0 straight up and against the spread in nighttime road games that weren’t played against the Titans or Chiefs.
Bills vs Jets Total Splits Favor a High-Scoring Game
Moving over to the total market now in the Bills vs Jets public betting, where the splits are more evenly split. 67% of the over/under wagers are backing a high-scoring game, but those tickets only account for 57% of the total handle.
That means 43% of the money that’s backing the under is coming off just 33% of the tickets, which is an indication that those who bet biggest (typically professionals) are leaning towards a low-scoring affair.
Both these teams were top-six defenses per DVOA in 2022, and a significant drop-off isn’t expected for either unit. Allen struggled against the Jets last season, throwing for only 352 yards and one touchdown in two games, while getting picked off twice. New York’s secondary is elite, which is one of the reasons Gabe Davis is an easy fade in the Bills vs Jets props.
The offensive line @AndrewWhitworth is most concerned about?
The Jets.
He explains why pic.twitter.com/AUKgtrXW8h
— Maggie Gray (@MaggieGray) September 9, 2023
Expectations may be high for Rodgers and the New York offense this season, but don’t be surprised if they get off to a slow start. The Jets are dealing with major offensive line issues due to a lack of continuity and poor play, and the Buffalo pass rush led by Greg Rousseau is a very strong unit.
NFL Moneyline Betting Splits All Over Buffalo
As for the moneyline splits, Buffalo is attracting the majority of the action in the Bills vs Jets public betting. The Bills are being backed on 68% of the moneyline wagers, and those bets make up 89% of the moneyline handle.
With this game being the final one of Week 1, you have to expect that a large number of those moneyline bets are tied up in parlays that may or may not still be live.
Bills vs Jets – Last Five Results in NY
| Date | Result |
|---|---|
| 11/06/22 | Jets 20, Bills 17 |
| 11/14/21 | Bills 45, Jets 17 |
| 10/25/20 | Bills 18, Jets 10 |
| 09/08/2019 | Bills 17, Jets 16 |
| 11/11/2018 | Bills 41, Jets 10 |
New York has struggled badly against the AFC East since 2018, posting a dismal 5-25 record. That’s the worst mark of any team versus their own division over that time frame.
Buffalo meanwhile, is 6-3 all-time against the Jets with Allen under center. The Bills have beaten New York in five of their past six matchups, and in four of their past five meetings at the Meadowlands.
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As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
