NFL MVP Odds Update: Tagovailoa Jumps to Front of Pack
- There was significant line movement in the NFL MVP odds involving Miami QB Tua Tagovailoa following the first Sunday of the regular season
- At DraftKings Sportsbook, Tagovailoa and reigning NFL MVP Patrick Mahomes of Kansas City are co-favorites with odds of +700
- See all the NFL MVP betting action from Week 1 in the story below
Who’s the favorite in the NFL MVP odds as Week 1 of the regular season is drawing to a conclusion? Well, that depends upon which online sports betting site you check.
At DraftKings, reigning NFL MVP Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs is still on top at a betting line of +700. However, he’s sharing the favorite’s role with the sensation of the first Sunday of the season, Miami Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa.
FanDuel is putting Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen as the MVP chalk at +550. He’s making his season debut in the MNF game against the New York Jets. Meanwhile, over at BetMGM, Mahomes and Allen are co-favorites at +600.
Let’s look at the latest NFL MVP odds and see how things are shaking out so far.
NFL MVP Odds
| Player (Team) | Odds |
|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa (Dolphins) | +700 |
| Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs) | +700 |
| Joe Burrow (Bengals) | +750 |
| Josh Allen (Bills) | +850 |
| Jalen Hurts (Eagles) | +1100 |
| Justin Herbert (Chargers) | +1200 |
| Lamar Jackson (Ravens) | +1500 |
| Trevor Lawrence (Jaguars) | +1500 |
| Aaron Rodgers (Jets) | +1600 |
| Dak Prescott (Cowboys) | +2000 |
| Justin Fields (Bears) | +2500 |
| Deshaun Watson (Browns) | +2500 |
| Jared Goff (Lions) | +3500 |
| Brock Purdy (49ers) | +4000 |
| Jordan Love (Packers) | +4500 |
| Matthew Stafford (Rams) | +5000 |
| Derek Carr (Saints) | +5000 |
| Russell Wilson (Broncos) | +5000 |
| Tyreek Hill (Dolphins) | +5000 |
| Geno Smith (Seahawks) | +5000 |
Quarterbacks are holding down the top 18 spots in the NFL MVP odds until you get to Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill at +5000. The men who work under center have won the past 10 NFL MVP awards. A WR has never been voted NFL MVP.
Odds as of September 11 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Access this DraftKings promo code to bet on which NFL player you think will win the MVP here.
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NFL MVP Odds Shorten On Tagovailoa
While there still may be no clear favorite across all of the major online sports betting sites, the player making the paradigm shift during Week 1 was clearly Tagovailoa. His Sunday performance against the Chargers wasn’t the greatest ever in an NFL season opener, but it was darn close.
Dolphins’ QB Tua Tagovailoa passed for 466 yards today, the fourth-most passing yards in a season-opening game in NFL history, trailing only Norm Van Brocklin, (554 yards in 1951), Tom Brady (517 yards in 2011) and Dan Marino (473 yards in 1994).
Tyreek Hill registered 215…
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) September 11, 2023
In Miami’s 36-34 win over the Chargers, Tagovailoa threw for 466 yards. That’s the fourth highest Week 1 total in league history. Hill was good for 215 yards, the third-best performance by a wideout in a season opener. If Tagovailoa can stay healthy, that tandem is going to be giving NFL secondaries fits all season long.
At the outset of the season, you could get a betting line of +2200 on Tagovailoa in NFL MVP markets. His was far and away the biggest line movement of any player during Week 1.
Should You Fade Mahomes?
Do so at your own peril. Sure, it wasn’t pretty for the Kansas City offense during the Chiefs’ 21-20 loss to the Lions. Imagine what was going through his mind on Sunday as Mahomes was watching his old #1 WR Hill put on that electric showing in partnership with Tua.
That being said, the Chiefs and Mahomes are historically slow starters. They lost two of their first six games last season, then just one more the rest of the way as KC won the Super Bowl and Mahomes claimed his second MVP. In 2021, the Chiefs were 3-4 and still made it to the AFC Championship Game.
The 0-1 Chiefs are still the +650 favorites in the Super Bowl odds.
Week 1 NFL MVP Line Movement
Other than Tagovailoa, there wasn’t much in the way of massive movement in NFL MVP betting markets. Even though the Bengals lost and he was benched, Cincinnati QB Joe Burrow remains at a betting line of +750 at DraftKings. However, FanDuel lengthened his MVP odds to +1000.
Tua’s quantum leap is making the early MVP chase a three-player race. No matter which NFL betting site you check, the top three contenders in the NFL MVP odds are Mahomes, Allen and Tagovailoa. The order may differentiate from site to site and that’s why you should be line shopping right now.
Is it finally Josh Allen's MVP year? 🏆
Watch Bills vs. Jets tonight on NFL Game Pass on DAZN pic.twitter.com/keX9wgkpcI
— NFL on DAZN (@NFLonDAZN) September 11, 2023
While it’s too early to state a clear NFL MVP favorite, now’s the time to get action if you like a particular player and want to get a good price.
Should you believe that Tagovailoa and the Dolphins are for real, you can get NFL MVP odds of +850 on him at FanDuel. You can also get a +850 line on Allen at DraftKings and remember, he hasn’t checked in with his Week 1 performance yet.
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An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.
