- The Kansas City Chiefs host the LA Chargers in Week 3 play
- Last week’s prop picks: 1-4. Overall: 2-6, -4.21units
- See the odds, spread, analysis, and best prop bets below
We definitely took our lumps in Week 2.
What we learned: the Tampa Bay offense is deep. Antonio Brown, who entered the game as one of the most consistent and dependable receivers of late, totaled just one catch for 17 yards, and Tampa still hung 48 on the Atlanta Falcons. We also learned that trying to predict rookies may prove difficult, especially those as talented as Kyle Pitts, who shredded his total receiving yards total in the first half.
Alas, it’s time to forge forward and work our way back into the black with an all-AFC West showdown in Kansas City, as the Chiefs host the upstart LA Chargers.
Chargers vs Chiefs Player Props
|Passer||Completions||Passing Yards||Passing TDs|
|Justin Herbert (LAC)||26.5 (Ov -130 / Un +100)||301.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115)||1.5 (Ov -210 / Un +155)|
|Patrick Mahomes (KC)||26.5 (Ov -120 / Un -110)||303.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115)||2.5 (Ov +105 / Un -140)|
|Rusher||Rushing Attempts||Rushing Yards||Longest Rush|
|Austin Ekeler (LAC)||12.5 (Ov -130 / Un +100)||54.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115)||13.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115)|
|Clyde-Edwards-Helaire (KC)||14.5 (Ov -110 / Un -120)||57.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115)||13.5 (Ov -125 / Un -110)|
|Justin Herbert (LAC)||OFF||13.5 (Ov -110 / Un -120)||OFF|
|Patrick Mahomes (KC)||OFF||17.5 (Ov -110 / Un -120)||9.5 ( Ov -125 / Un -105)|
|Tyreek Hill (KC)||OFF||2.5 (Ov -120 / Un -110)||OFF|
|Receiver||Receptions||Receiving Yards||Longest Reception|
|Austin Ekeler (LAC)||4.5 (Ov -155 / Un +115)||40.5 (Ov -110 / Un -120)||15.5 (Ov -120 / Un -110)|
|Clyde-Edwards-Helaire (KC)||2.5 (Ov +105 / Un -140)||14.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115)||9.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115)|
|Demarcus Robinson (KC)||2.5 (Ov +100 / Un -135)||27.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115)||15.5 ( Ov -120 / Un -110)|
|Jalen Guyton (LAC)||2.5 (Ov +125 / Un -165)||23.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115)||14.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115)|
|Jared Cook (LAC)||3.5 (Ov +100/ Un -130)||37.5 ( Ov -110 / Un -120)||17.5 (Ov -120 / Un -110)|
|Keenan Allen (LAC)||6.5 (Ov -135 / Un +105)||81.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115)||24.5 ( Ov -110 / Un -120)|
|Mecole Hardman (KC)||4.5 (Ov +120 / Un -160)||42.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115)||18.5 ( Ov -110 / Un -120)|
|Mike Williams (LAC)||5.5 (Ov -110 / Un -120)||68.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115)||23.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115)|
|Travis Kelce (KC)||7.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115)||88.5 ( Ov -110 / Un -120)||24.5 ( Ov -110 / Un -120)|
|Tyreek Hill (KC)||6.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115)||80.5 (Ov -115 / Un -115)||25.5 (Ov -120 / Un -110)|
Odds taken Sept. 18 from DraftKingsAdvertising Disclosure
Count on Kelce
What else can you say about the all-world play of the KC pass-catcher? He’s coming off a spectacular Week 2 performance against the Ravens, taking a short pass and picking his way through Baltimore’s defense for an electric 46-yard catch-and-run, part of a 7-catch, 109-yard receiving night with a TD.
TRAVIS KELCE WOULD NOT GO DOWN 💪
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) September 20, 2021
In fact, in his last 10 regular season games, Kelce has had at least six receptions, while getting double-digit targets in his seven of those games. He’s crossed this game’s projected total seven of those times as well. After Tyreek Hill went for nearly 200 yards receiving in their Week 1 win over the Browns, he was bottled up in Week 2’s loss to the Ravens.
Look for the Chargers to use that formula, which should mean plenty of opportunities for Kelce in the middle of the field.
- Kelce OVER 88.5 receiving yards (1 unit to win 0.91units)
Bring Out the Backs
There’s plenty of weaknesses on the Kansas City defense, but the biggest one is their porous run defense.
The Chiefs have surrendered a league-high 404 yards rushing and seven majors already, while giving up a staggering six yards per carry, the only team in the NFL to reach that plateau.
Austin Ekeler with the first TD of the opening NFL Sunday 💪
— NFL on ESPN (@ESPNNFL) September 12, 2021
Granted, KC has opened against two of the most dominant run games in the Browns and Ravens. Conversely, Chargers’ back Austin Ekeler has faced an inspired Cowboys defense, and a stout Washington front enroute to an average of 55.5 yards across two games. He should see some open space and crush that over.
On the other end, I don’t know how much more the Chiefs want to lean on their second-year back in Edwards-Helaire. He’s been a brutal start to the year, totaling just 89 yards across 27 carries. That includes a backbreaking fumble that led to a Baltimore win.
Worst possible outcome for the #Chiefs.
— Jason Pombo (@JasonPombo) September 20, 2021
The Chargers aren’t great defensively against the run, as they’re second-last to the Chiefs in rush yards per game (5.6), but I expect CEH’s leash to be shorter, while keeping the ball in Patrick Mahomes’ hands. It’s by far the Chiefs’ best option. And in the business of winning games, Andy Reid won’t be worrying about run-pass balance.
- Ekeler OVER 54.5 rushing yards (0.5 units to win 0.435 units)
- Edwards-Helaire UNDER 57.5 rushing yards (0.5 units to win 0.435 units)
Just a quick one here: anytime the league’s most electrifying player has plus-odds on a prop bet, you’ve got to entertain it.
Mahomes has tossed for three TDs in each of his first two starts, yet he’s +100 to surpass that against LA. Sure, he’s only ever gone over that total once in five career games against the Chargers.
— NFL France (@NFLFrance) September 20, 2021
LA’s defense has surrendered just 177 yards passing and 19 points per game to start the year, including neutralizing a potent Dallas Cowboys passing attack in a loss last week.
But with a less-than-stellar run attack, and the two-time AFC Champions staring up at both the Broncos and Raiders, Mahomes rises to the occasion.
- Mahomes OVER 2.5 TD passes (1 unit to win 1 unit)
Chargers vs Chiefs Scoring Props
|Player||First Touchdown Scorer||Anytime Touchdown Scorer|
|Tyreek Hill (KC)||+650||-140|
|Travis Kelce (KC)||+650||-140|
|Austin Ekeler (LAC)||+1000||+120|
|Mike Williams (LAC)||+1200||+150|
|Mecole Hardman (KC)||+1200||+150|
|Keenan Allen (LAC)||+1300||+170|
|Jared Cook (LAC)||+1400||+190|
|Demarcus Robinson (KC)||+1600||+225|
|Patrick Mahomes (KC)||+1800||+240|
|Justin Herbert (LAC)||+2200||+330|
Thanks to our friends at DraftKings for these updated stats for TD scorers. Ekeler (+120) has scored a major in three of the last four LA games, while Mike Williams (+150) has found paydirt in three straight games.
Over on the KC side, Kelce (-140) has scored at least a TD in each of his last eight games against AFC competition, while Tyreek Hill (-140) has scored a major in four of his last games against AFC West competition.
Let’s take our chances with the plus bets here, and try to gain you the most bang for your buck.
- Pick: Ekeler to score anytime TD (1 unit to win 1.20 units)