Chargers vs Texans Picks, Predictions & Best Odds for Jan. 11 (Wild Card)

• The first game of Wild Card weekend sees the Los Angeles Chargers visiting the Houston Texans on Saturday, Jan. 11
• The Texans are just 4-5 in their last nine games while the Chargers enter the postseason on a three-game win streak
• Below, see the Los Angeles Chargers vs Houston Texans predictions, expert picks, and best available odds

Two teams on different trajectories meet in the first game of the 2025 NFL playoffs when the Houston Texans (10-7, home, ATS) host the Los Angeles Chargers (11-6, away, ATS) at NRG Stadium at 3:30 pm CT/4:30 pm ET on Saturday, January 11th. With Los Angeles surging into the postseason on a three-game win streak, and Houston limping in losing two of three, it’s the visiting Chargers who are favored by a field-goal on Wild Card weekend.

Los Angeles Chargers vs Houston Texans Prediction

• Texans +3.5 (-140) at BetMGM
  

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The Chargers/Texans spread opened at LAC -2.5 and has only moved further in the visitor’s direction. I get the appeal of the Chargers, or perhaps the aversion to the Texans, in this particular matchup. Houston went just 1-5 against teams that finished with a winning record in the regular season, losing each of the last four such matchups to the Packers (24-22 away), Lions (26-23 home), Chiefs (27-19 away), and Ravens (31-2 home).

Their receiver room is still in relative shambles, with Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell on IR and John Metchie III questionable due to a shoulder injury, leaving just WR Nico Collins (1,006 yards),  TE Dalton Schultz (532 yards), and Robert Woods (203 yards) to carry the water in the passing game.

TD Nico Collins! We needed that badly. pic.twitter.com/1ehO4rgrIr

— big ounce (@_bigounce) January 5, 2025

Making matters worse, veteran right guard Shaq Mason has been ruled out with a knee injury, which is going to hinder Joe Mixon and the running game.

But I’m not buying into the idea that the Chargers should be favored by a full field goal on the road. LAC was only 3-5 against teams with winning records, and those three wins came against a Cincinnati team that missed the playoffs and a Denver team (twice) that barely held onto the #7 seed in the AFC. And the Chargers have their own injury issues at receiver. Josh Palmer (584 yards) is out and Quentin Johnson (711 yards) is questionable, which is going to put in inordinate amount of pressure on rookie standout Ladd McConkey (1,149 yards).

While PFF grades the Chargers as a significantly better overall team (90.1, fifth in the NFL compared to Houston in 16th at 83.9), DVOA shows less of a discrepancy: LAC finished 9th at +12.6% while Houston finished 16th at +5.3%.

The Texans still have an excellent defense that finished T4th in the NFL in sacks (49), while the Chargers were in the bottom half of the league in sacks allowed (44). Houston will keep it close in front of their home crowd against a good-not-great Los Angeles team.

Best Available Chargers vs Texans Odds

As with most NFL playoff games, there isn’t much range in the point spread after five full days of betting action. The line is LAC -3.0 across the board with only slight variations in the odds. FanDuel has the best price on the Chargers to cover at -104 while DraftKings has the best price on the Texans to cover at -112.

There is a bigger mix on the moneyline. Houston is as long as +140 to win straight-up at bet365 (and -135 or shorter everywhere else). FanDuel once again has the best number for Chargers bettors, listing the LAC moneyline at -154.

There is a half-point range with respect to the game total in the latest NFL odds. The vast majority of sportsbooks list the O/U at 42.5 but BetMGM has it a half-point lower at 42.0 with -110 odds both ways.

The NFL public betting splits currently show the public backing the favored Chargers both against the spread and on the moneyline: as of Friday afternoon, Los Angeles is getting 75% of moneyline handle and 72% of ATS handle. The public was also strongly backing the under, putting 85% of game-total money on under 42.5.