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Chicago Bears vs Washington Commanders Prediction, Spread & Picks for Thursday Night Football

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in NFL Football

Updated Oct 5, 2023 · 2:42 PM PDT

The winless Chicago Bears are 6-point road underdogs facing the Washington Commanders in the Week 5 TNF game
Oct 13, 2022; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago Bears quarterback Justin Fields (1) runs with the ball against the Washington Commanders during the second half at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports
  • The Washington Commanders are 6-point home favorites over the Chicago Bears in the Week 5 NFL TNF game on Thursday, October 5
  • Chicago is winless since October 24, 2022. Will that streak continue in this week’s Bears vs Commanders picks?
  • The Commanders beat the Bears 12-7 on TNF last season at Soldier Field

The bad news for the Chicago Bears (0-4, 0-3-1 ATS) is that the last time they were facing the Washington Commanders (2-2, 2-2 ATS) on TNF, they lost. On the other hand, the good news is that a week later, the Bears won. Then again, the even worse news is that Chicago hasn’t tasted victory since that triumph on October 24, 2022. And the Bears vs Commanders odds suggest that streak may continue on TNF.

Riding an 0-14 straight up skid, the winless Bears are coming to the nation’s capital as 6-point road underdogs against the Commanders for the Week 5 TNF game. Chicago is 3-11-1 ATS during the current outright winless slide.

Let’s look more deeply into this Bears vs Commanders prediction and matchup and offer you our best bet for this Week 5 clash of NFC rivals.

Bears vs Commanders Odds

Team Moneyline Spread Total
Chicago Bears +215 +6 (-112) Over 44.5 (-110)
Washington Commanders -265 -6 (-108) Under 44.5 (-110)

In the Bears vs Commanders odds, the Commanders are -265 moneyline favorites, giving them a 72.60% implied win probability. The total is set at 44.5 points.  The total has gone over in all four Chicago games this season.

Chicago vs Washington odds as of October 4 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Be sure to claim a DraftKings promo code to make your Bears vs Commanders picks and to bet on other Week 4 NFL action. And check out DraftKings daily menu of odds boosts for TNF and other games this week. Right now DK has a 50% profit boost available for any Bears vs Commanders picks.

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Kickoff for this game at FedEx Field on Thursday, October 5 is set for 8:15pm ET. The broadcast is being carried by Prime Video and by DAZN in Canada.

Chicago vs Washington Betting Trends

Looking at the NFL public betting splits on this game, the people are expecting some capital punishment to be awaiting Chicago at Washington. In the Bears vs Commanders public spread splits, the favored Commanders are garnering 75% of handle. There’s also 80% of handle going on Washington in the moneyline splits.

Much like any other day of the week, Chicago isn’t getting enjoyment out of TNF. The Bears are 2-6 straight up in their last eight TNF games. They haven’t won a TNF road game since a 16-0 victory at Miami over the Dolphins on November 18, 2010.

Chicago’s last victory was a road game, though, a 33-14 win at New England. However, the Bears are 0-5 SU and ATS in their past five away contests.

As for the Commanders, they’re not exactly lighting it up, either. Washington is 3-6 ATS over the past nine games. The Commanders are 7-1 SU in the last eight games against the Bears and 6-2 ATS over the same span. Chicago is 3-7 SU in the last 10 games at Washington. But the Bears are 3-2 ATS in the past five trips to FedEx Field. Four of the last five Chicago vs Washington games have gone over the total.

Chicago is the longest shot in the odds to win the Super Bowl at +40000. Washington is given a betting line of +8000 in this market.

It Can’t Get Any Worse Than That

Last season, Washington went to Chicago for a TNF game on October 13, 2022 and the two teams combined to lay the biggest egg ever in the history of the series. Washington won an absolute stinker of a game by a dismal 12-7 count.

Both starting QBs in this game, Chicago’s Justin Fields and Washington’s Sam Howell, have thrown five interceptions this season. On the other hand, Howell is 3-2 SU as an NFL starter. Fields is 3-16.

Bears Eberflus On Verge of Dismissal?

If you’re betting on the first NFL coach to get fired this season and haven’t put at least a few dollars down on Chicago’s Matt Eberflus, what are you waiting for? That he’s lost 14 games in a row and is still collecting a paycheck as an NFL head coach is shocking.

There’s strong speculation that if the Bears make it 15 in a row on TNF, Eberflus will be getting the pink slip. After blowing a 21-point lead at home last week in a 31-28 loss to the Denver Broncos, perhaps only the short week leading into this game enabled Eberflus to survive that debacle.

Bears vs Commanders Prediction

Washington did lose last week. However, in a 34-31 OT loss to the Philadelphia Eagles, the Commanders were putting up 31 points against the reigning NFC champions.

With dissension and unrest reportedly gripping the Chicago locker room, this isn’t going to be the week that these bad news Bears come out of hibernation. But Washington is just 10-16 ATS in the last 26 home games as a favorite of 4+ points. So don’t be surprised if the Bears find a way to cover.

Bears vs Commanders Picks: Chicago Bears +6 (-112)

TNF Record: 4-0-0 (+4 units)

Looking for more picks for TNF? Check out our Bears vs Commanders same-game parlay here!

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