Upcoming Match-ups
Tmrw
20
Apr
1:00 PM
ORL
CLE
+4.5
-4.5
207.5
3:30 PM
PHO
MIN
+1.5
-1.5
214
6:00 PM
PHI
NY
+3
-3
208.5
8:30 PM
LAL
DEN
+7
-7
224
Sunday
21
Apr
3:30 PM
DAL
LAC
-1.5
+1.5
224
7:00 PM
IND
MIL
-1
+1
233
Tuesday
23
Apr
8:30 PM
IND
MIL
+3
-3
239.5
10:00 PM
DAL
LAC
+2
-2
227.5

Devlin Hodges Performance Props & Predictions for First Start in Week 6

Eric Rosales

by Eric Rosales in NFL Football

Updated Apr 13, 2020 · 7:11 PM PDT

Third-string Steelers QB Devlin Hodges is likely making his first career start in prime time on Sunday night against the Chargers. Photo from @Steelersdepot (Twitter).
  • Unheralded Devlin Hodges likely to start for Steelers in Week 6
  • Hodges played well in first career NFL game in relief of Mason Rudolph
  • We examine sportsbooks’ props for the undrafted pivot against the Chargers in primetime

It’s becoming the hottest trend in the NFL: a star quarterback going down, and an unheralded pivot – the kind whose name you don’t recognize on the ticker and have to google – steps into the spotlight. For the Pittsburgh Steelers, they’re trotting out their second  such quarterback.

After Mason Rudolph took a hellacious hit in the third quarter in their Week 5 game against the Ravens and left with a concussion, Devlin Hodges took over and nearly orchestrated a victory.

However, the Steelers found another way to lose.

At 1-4 and their season literally hanging on by a thread, the Alabama kid Mike Tomlin dubbed “Duck Dynasty” in training camp will have the opportunity to raise the Black and Yellow up from the ashes. He’ll likely get his first career start in primetime, in LA to take on the Chargers.

Devlin Hodges Week 6 Passing Odds

Prop Line Over Odds Under Odds
Total Passing Touchdowns 1.5 +160 -190
Total Passing Yards 225.5 +120 -150

*Odds taken 10/10/19

Sportsbooks’ betting props represent some modest expectations, so let’s explore and see which way you should be leaning.

Total Passing Touchdowns

In his only NFL action, Hodges looked comfortable, going 7-for-9 for 68 yards with no TD’s and no INT’s, leading two scoring drives: one for a touchdown and another for a field goal, before a JuJu Smith-Schuster fumble helped set up Baltimore’s game-winning field goal in overtime.

If we classify Hodges as an unheralded – in this case, not a lottery pick or established / veteran player coming in for relief – he’ll join Jaguars rookie Gardner Minshew, Panthers’ second-year standout Kyle Allen, and teammate Rudolph in catapulting from unknown to starter in a week. Let’s also disregard Luke Falk, who is still reeling from his first pro start against the Eagles.

Minshew was brilliant in his first career start, throwing for two TD’s in a win over the Titans, while Allen was even more impressive, throwing four TD strikes to crush the Cardinals and officially bring the Panthers back into the realm of competitiveness.

Unfortunately, Steelers QBs have thrown for just a single touchdown in four of their five games. The only one they threw multiple strikes? Week 3 – Rudolph’s first career start. But remember, that was aided by an incredible solo catch and run to paydirt by Smith-Schuster.

The Steelers just aren’t built for that passing life right now. Also, the Chargers have allowed 2+ scores to opponents with a winning record. In their last two games against the Broncos and Dolphins, they’ve allowed one each.

The pick: under 1.5 TD passes (-190)

Total Passing Yards

Last year’s Walter Payton Award Winner (named the most outstanding offensive player in FCS) came from tiny Samford college, and put the finishing touches on a stellar four-year career. He went 380-for-550, a 70.5% completion clip, throwing for 4,283 yards, with 32 touchdown tosses and 16 interceptions. All of this in just 11 games.

He finished his college career as the FCS’ all time leader in passing yards with 14,584, topping the mark set by Steve McNair, who would go on to succeed in the NFL with the Titans.

Minshew tossed for 203 yards in his first start, Allen went for 261, and Rudolph for 174. The Chargers are averaging a middle-of-the-pack 243 passing yards a game, but again, against lesser opposition the past two weeks, they’ve given up 159 yards to the Broncos, and 161 to the Dolphins.

The Steelers might want to use Denver’s upset-winning formula from Week 5: they gashed the Chargers for 191 yards on the ground, the first time in four games that a team cracked 100 yards on the ground against LA. Expect to see a heavy does of James Conner, and efficient, short passing to compliment the Steeler attack.

The pick: under 225.5 yards passing (-150)

Author Image