- In the Divisional Round betting trends for NFL playoffs away teams were road warriors last season, going 3-1 SU and ATS
- It was the first time since 2009 that the away squads won more games that the home teams
- Winning teams have also covered in 33 of the last 44 NFL Divisional Road games
The eight teams in this year’s NFL Divisional Round will be hard-pressed to outdo last season’s second round of the NFL Playoffs. All four games a year ago went right down to the final play of the game before being decided.
Last season was also an aberration in terms of outcomes. Road teams were 3-1 both straight up and against the spread. It was the first time since 2009 that the away squads were carrying the day. That season, road teams were also 3-1 SU and ATS.
In the previous four years of NFL Divisional Round betting trends, home teams went 13-3 SU and 10-6 ATS. So in which trend are you going to place your betting trust?
Home teams are the chalk in the NFL odds in all four games this weekend, all of them by 4 or more points.
Let’s take a look through some of the Divisional Round betting trends worth keeping in mind during this weekend’s games.
Bengals Are Postseason Road Warriors
The Cincinnati Bengals are getting 5.5 points at Buffalo against the Bills. That just might be too tempting not to bet on the Bengals.
En route to a Super Bowl appearance last season, the Bengals were road money. They were 3-0 ATS away from home during the NFL postseason. This season, Cincinnati is 4-0 ATS in the last four road games and 7-1 ATS over the past eight away from home.
Keeping Up With Jones
The New York Giants are the NFL’s best ATS team this season and Giants quarterback Daniel Jones is an absolute coverage monster.
Coming into Philadelphia as 7.5-point road underdogs, the Giants are an NFL-leading 14-4 (77.8%) ATS this season. On the road, New York is also #1 in the league at 7-1 (87.5 %). As well, the Giants are 7-1 as an away underdog.
Daniel Jones against the spread per @Bet_Labs.
— John Ewing 🦁 (@johnewing) January 18, 2023
Jones is 18-7 ATS overall in his career on the road. As a road underdog, he’s 17-5 ATS.
The Eagles, though, could prove a formidable foe. They’re 6-2 SU in their last eight Divisional Round games and an even better 7-1 ATS.
Cowboys Divisional Round Playoff History Is Poor
No NFL team in recent years has proven to be more dismal in the Divisional Round betting trends than the Dallas Cowboys. Dallas is 0-5 SU in the club’s last five games at this stage of the NFL postseason. The Cowboys are 1-4 ATS in those games.
The Dallas Cowboys have not won a Divisional Round playoff game since 1995 pic.twitter.com/CBKUws9wjA
— CBS Sports (@CBSSports) January 18, 2023
Going to San Francisco to face the 49ers, Dallas is also 0-5 SU in the team’s last five road games during Divisional Round play. The Cowboys most recently captured a road game in this round in 1980, winning 30-27 at the Atlanta Falcons.
Another reason to avoid betting on Dallas? The Cowboys beat the Buccaneers in the Wild Card Round on Monday night. San Francisco won its Wild Card game over Seattle on Saturday afternoon. That’s a significant difference in rest.
Favored Chiefs Rarely Fail
Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs are the opposite of Dallas in Divisional Round play. Kansas City is 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS in the last eight Divisional Round games as a betting favorite. The Chiefs are an 8.5-point pick at home over the Jacksonville Jaguars.
When the Super Bowl 57 opening odds were dropping last February, the Jaguars were #30 in the odds at +12000. Just ahead of them in 29th were the Giants (+10000). This season marks the first time since 1987 that two teams with opening Super Bowl odds of +10000 or higher are playing in the Divisional Round.
Back then, it was the Indianapolis Colts and Houston Oilers. Both lost and failed to cover on the road. Like the Giants and Jaguars, each were massive road underdogs. The Colts (+8) lost 38-21 at Cleveland. Houston (+10) fell 34-10 at Denver.
Jacksonville is 4-0 ATS in the last four Divisional Round games played by the team, though. In 2017, the Jaguars won outright 45-42 at Pittsburgh as 7-point underdogs.
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