Dolphins vs Texans Odds, Predictions & Player Props (Dec 15)

• The Dolphins’ slim playoff hopes are on the line in Week 15 as Miami visits the Houston Texans on Sunday, Dec. 15
• Tua Tagovailoa has an 11-to-0 TD-to-INT rate over the past four games
• See the Miami Dolphins vs Houston Texans odds, predictions, and player props for Week 15

The stakes are high on Sunday as the Miami Dolphins (6-7, 2-4 away) face the Houston Texans (8-5, 4-2 home). Miami enters play two games back of Denver for the AFC’s final Wild Card berth, but can increase their chances of making the playoffs to 27% with a victory in this matchup. Houston meanwhile, can clinch the AFC South with a win and a loss by the Colts to the Broncos. Online sportsbooks are bullish on the Texans to hold up their end of the bargain, pegging them as field-goal favorites in the Week 15 NFL odds.

Miami Dolphins vs Houston Texans Odds

The Dolphins vs Texans spread currently sits at Miami -3 across the board. Per the latest NFL odds, the shortest Texans moneyline available is -148 at DraftKings. The longest odds you can get on the Dolphins to pull off the upset is +130 at BetMGM.

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Total-wise, most books are showing an over/under of 47 juiced at -110. DraftKings is an exception, coming in half a point lower at 46.5. Regardless of the number however, bettors are expecting a track meet. The NFL public betting percentages show 78% of the tickets and 62% of the handle are backing the over.

The spread action is just as lopsided in favor of Miami. The Fins are garnering 71% of both the ATS wagers and money at +3.

Kickoff for this pivotal game is set for 1 pm ET at NRG Stadium in Houston, TX, with CBS providing the broadcast coverage.

Miami Dolphins vs Houston Texans Predictions

• Dolphins +3 (-110) 

A big reason why bettors are backing the Dolphins is the recent play of Tua Tagovailoa. Since returning from injury he’s been nearly flawless, throwing 15 touchdowns against only 1 interception in seven games. Miami is 4-3 in those contests, losing twice by 3 points or less. Tua has an 11-to-0 TD-to-INT rate over the Dolphins last four games, leading them to a 3-1 record and over 29 points per game.

Tagovailoa leads the NFL in completions and passing yards since Week 8. The former Alabama star has been on target with 70+ percent of his throws over that span, which is a Dolphins record.

LEGENDARY: #Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa is the 1ST PLAYER IN #NFL HISTORY with at least 40 pass attempts, 300 passing yards, and zero interceptions in 3 consecutive games.

🤯

Tua has been elite this season. pic.twitter.com/1M7NB6x5JF

— MLFootball (@_MLFootball) December 12, 2024

The matchup on paper looks favorable, as the Texans defense is in a slump. They’ve allowed 300 passing yards and 2 TD passes in five of their last six games. No team is allowing more touchdown throws per game than Houston, while only three squads grade out worse in the tackling department.

On the other side of the ball, Miami’s defense is literally built to stop this Texans offense. According to ESPN’s analytics, Stroud ranks 30th in QBR and 27th in completion rate versus split-safety looks. Joe Mixon and the running game hasn’t fared much better, producing a dismal 34% rushing success rate versus that type of defense. The Dolphins run that scheme on nearly 50% of their snaps, a number we can expect to increase on Sunday.

MIA vs HOU Player Props

Given his recent play, it’s no surprise that Tagovailoa has higher completion and yardage over/unders than Stroud in the Dolphins vs Texans player props. Tua is projected for three more completions and 21 more passing yards. He also has shorter odds to throw two TDs at -125, compared to Stroud’s +100. The ladder prop is the one I’d target. Tagovailoa’s cleared that number in four straight outings and Houston is significantly worse against the pass than the run.

Miami’s rushing attack has also taken a step back in recent weeks. DeVon Achane is sharing carries and may not be cut out for a bellcow role. Achane is averaging 2.2 yards per attempt over his last three starts, failing to clear 12 carries in five of his past seven outings.

• Dolphins vs Texans Player Props: Tua Tagovailoa Over 1.5 Passing TD (-125), DeVon Achane Under 12.5 Rushing Attempts (-110)