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Odds Suggest Lamar Jackson to Use his Arm More, Legs Less in Week 12

Eric Rosales

by Eric Rosales in NFL Football

Updated Apr 2, 2020 · 1:22 PM PDT

Lamar Jackson Ravens QB
Lamar Jackson leads the Ravens against the Chargers as the NFL playoffs kick off with Wild Card Weekend. Photo by U.S. Air Force Staff Sgt. Delano Scott [Public Domain]
  • What will Lamar Jackson have for an encore to first win?
  • Vegas believes Ravens pivot will likely throw more
  • Baltimore will likely to find balance for young QB

The oddsmakers have their hands full with Lamar Jackson.

After moonlighting in Baltimore’s specialty packages for the first 10 weeks of his NFL career, the Ravens turned the starting quarterback gig over to their prized draft pick due to an injury to Joe Flacco.

By all accounts, it was a success.

The hyper-athletic Jackson turned an ultra-conservative scheme into his own personal sandlot, with an unreal 27 carries for 117 yards rushing in his NFL debut.

That’s the most carries ever by a pivot in the Super Bowl era, and he looked good doing it.

For good measure, he also tossed the ball around too, as QBs are known to do, finishing with 150 yards passing.

Most importantly, Baltimore snapped an ugly three-game losing skid and moved into the six hole in the playoff battle in the AFC with a win over the Bengals.

Perhaps most notable was Bengals head coach Marvin Lewis’ assessment of Jackson’s day.


And so oddsmakers have waded into the waters, treading lightly on what Jackson will have in store against the Raiders this Sunday. They do expect Jackson and the Ravens to tone down the running … sort of.

Let’s break these down.

Lamar Jackson Week 12 Props

Total Passing Attempts

Prop Odds
Over 27 attempts -120
Under 27 attempts -120

Jackson had just 19 attempts the entire game in Week 11.

To put that in perspective, the only other starting QB to throw less than that in Week 11 was Blake Bortles.

Yes, that Blake Bortles. Even Blaine Gabbert and Jameis Winston, relieving the starters due to injury or ineffectiveness, still threw 16 passes apiece.

Perhaps the Ravens know that keeping their quarterback upright and healthy is going to be the key long term, which is why they’ve already said Jackson will be throwing more. Jackson himself said as much.

“Hopefully, I’m going to start throwing the ball more. The game plan is coming up. We’re going to be throwing the ball. They’re going to see.” – Lamar Jackson

Take the over.

Total Passing Yards

Prop Odds
Over 190.5 yards -120
Under 190.5 yards -120

It stands to reason that more passes should equal more yards.

And that should be the thinking here as the Ravens take on the beleaguered Raiders, who can’t wait to get to the upcoming draft.

Oakland is third-worst in the league in surrendering points at 29.3 per game. Even though they’re just 16th in yards allowed per contest, that total is over 245 yards.

Take the over.

Total Rushing Attempts

Prop Odds
Over 11.5 carries -130
Under 11.5 carries -110

The only thing we know for sure is that Jackson isn’t going to get 27 totes.

However, he is such an effective weapon when the pocket collapses or plays break down. Instinct alone has this total climbing to double digits, but it will barely fall short.

Take the under.

Total Rushing Yards

Prop Odds
Over 57.5 yards -130
Under 57.5 yards -110

That doesn’t mean that he won’t be a force when he does tuck it and go.

Again, opponent matters. The Raiders are leaking versus the run game, surrendering over 142 yards a contest, next to dead last in the NFL. Run safe, young man.

Take the over.

Total Pass & Rush TDs Combined

Prop Odds
Over 1.5 TD -120
Under 1.5 TD -120

Tough one to calculate, because he was the engine that moved this offense against Cincinnati, only it didn’t register on the stat line.

His running backs feasted last game, but this time, expect Jackson to figure prominently into the scoring.

Take the over.

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