Expert NFL Picks Against the Spread for Week 11
- Our NFL experts predict their top picks against the spread for NFL Week 11
- Our experts are riding with teams like the Bills, Steelers and Chiefs on SNF
- Read on for our expert NFL picks against the spread for Week 11 below
This weekend’s expert NFL picks against the spread feature nine picks from our experts coming from eight different teams.
Our expert ATS picks had been flying along for most of the season. But last week was a stinker at 2-10. Too many picks on the Browns, Seahawks and Cowboys did us in. Still, we’ve compiled more Ws than Ls at 57-45-6 on the season.
Each week we’ll make our top picks against the spread and keep track of our records throughout the season. Read on for this week’s top NFL ATS picks.
Expert NFL Picks Against the Spread Week 11
| Matt McEwan | Ryan Metivier | Zach Reger | Bob Duff |
|---|---|---|---|
| — | Bills (-7.5) | Giants (-3) | Bills (-7.5) |
| — | Broncos (-2.5) | Steelers (+4) | Patriots (-3.5) |
| — | Jets (+3.5) | Cowboys (-1.5) | Chiefs (-4.5) |
| 7-13-1 Season Record | 14-14-2 Season Record | 19-9-2 Season Record | 17-9-1 Season Record |
Odds as of November 18. Check out this Caesars Sportsbook promo code to bet on the NFL this weekend
Assuming the Bills make it to Detroit to play the Browns, Buffalo is getting two selections in this week’s NFL ATS picks.
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Ryan Metivier
- Bills (-7.5) at BetMGM
The Browns’ strength is their run game where they rank fifth overall, with Nick Chubb being third in league rushing. Buffalo should be able to slow Chubb as they rank seventh in rushing yards allowed per game.
Cleveland got torched through the air last week in Miami, as Tua Tagovailoa went off for 285 yards, three passing touchdowns and Miami won 39-17. Miami are second in passing offense when it comes to yards per game (293.8). Buffalo is right there with them ranking second at 294.2 YPG.
The Bills should take a similar approach against the Browns this week and could also win by double digits.
- Broncos (-2.5) at FanDuel Sportsbook
It doesn’t get much uglier than this with the 2-7 Raiders (0-5 on the road), traveling to face the 3-6 Broncos (2-2 at home) in this AFC West showdown.
Denver is dead last in PPG at 14.6 and just lost 17-10 in Tennessee last week. The Raiders’ offense can score, sometimes. They’ve put up 20 points in back-to-back weeks and rank 14th in PPG at 22.6.
But they also just lost, at home, to the Colts last week. A Colts team who brought Matt Ryan back after being benched. A Colts team with a head coach who had never coached a game before. And a Colts team with an offensive play-caller, Parks Frazier, who had never called a play before. Denver doesn’t score often, but if they even get close to the Raiders’ endzone they probably will. Inside the red zone, teams own a 72-percent touchdown rate against the Raiders. Raiders’ opponents have also scored touchdowns on 30 percent of their drives against Las Vegas.
Broncos this season
Scoring Defense: BEST in NFL (16.6 PPG)
Scoring Offense: WORST in NFL (14.6 PPG) pic.twitter.com/r6vSmCC50Z— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) November 14, 2022
Now maybe Saturday and Frazier are better at their new jobs than every single pundit predicted. Maybe. The Colts did average their highest yards per play (seven) all season and converted 6/11 third downs. Or maybe the Raiders are a complete hot mess.
Either way, we’ll side with the home team under a field goal here who are looking to snap a five-game losing skid against the Raiders.
- Jets (+3.5) at DraftKings Sportsbook
Ok, I know the Jets have lost 13 straight to the Patriots, but that streak has to end sometime right? Well, with the Jets as 3.5-point underdogs I don’t necessarily need it to end on Sunday. I just need the Jets to keep it close. They did so in their last meeting with the Pats this season losing 22-17. They could’ve had a better fate too if not for three Zach Wilson interceptions.
The Jets held Mac Jones to only 194 yards passing, while Wilson racked up 355 yards through the air. The Jets and the Eagles are only two teams still undefeated on the road this season at 4-0 and I’m betting this is a field goal game either way.
Zach Reger
- Giants (-3) at FanDuel Sportsbook
This Giants team just continues to win and cover. They have a 7-2 record, and they are also 7-2 against the spread this season, That should continue against the Lions, who are coming off an emotional win against Chicago. Dan Campbell got his first-ever win on the road last week, so I do not expect him to win back-to-back away games. Saquon Barkley was the leading rusher in the league heading into Week 11, and the Lions will be chasing after him all day. The Big Blue should win comfortably at home on Sunday.
- Steelers (+4) at DraftKings Sportsbook
The underdog in divisional matchups this season is 30-17 against the spread this season. That is good for a 63.8% clip. The Steelers are a completely different team when TJ Watt is on the field, and that was evident last week against New Orleans. The Bengals’ offense was riding high heading into their bye week after beating the Panthers in a blowout. However, their offense has still struggled, especially with Ja’Marr Chase still sidelined. Pittsburgh’s offense is still nothing to write home about, but I expect their defense will do enough to give them good field position and keep this game close. Give me the home underdog in a divisional game out of principle.
.@Steelers @_TJWatt what a difference this Steeler defense looks like with Watt back in the lineup. No one else in this league plays like this. Makes everyone else better. #BaldysBreakdowns pic.twitter.com/tGI9dnbbM5
— Brian Baldinger (@BaldyNFL) November 15, 2022
- Cowboys (-1.5) at FanDuel Sportsbook. Claim your FanDuel Sportbook promo code for this weekend here
The Vikings just came off the game of the season last week. The Cowboys lost to the Packers, yet Dallas is slightly favored as the road team in this matchup. The Cowboys outplayed the Packers for most of the game before allowing a comeback and losing in overtime. Dallas is a good team on both sides of the ball, and while the Vikings are also a talented team, they are due for a letdown. It is always scary betting against Kirk Cousins at home on a Sunday, but the Cowboys should do enough to pull away and win this game.
Bob Duff
- Bills (-7.5) at FanDuel Sportsbook
Despite successive losses, the Buffalo Bills remain the chalk in the Super Bowl odds. They are also 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings with Cleveland.
Buffalo is also 4-1-2 ATS as a favorite of 8.5+ points at home since the start of last season (they were 8.5-point favorites earlier this week but that number has come down since). The Browns are 0-5 ATS in their last five games against AFC East clubs and 1-7 SU in their last eight road games.
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- Patriots (-3.5) at DraftKings Sportsbook
First off, let’s talk about all the nice things going on with the Jets. They are 5-1 ATS over the past six games. And the Jets are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games.
Now, let’s discuss the Jets and Bill Belichick. Years ago, Belichick was briefly named coach of the Jets before thinking better of the idea. Ever since he’s been putting a beatdown on New York’s AFC team.
New England has won 13 in a row SU over the Jets. The Patriots are 11-0 SU in the last 11 home games with the Jets as visitors. Factor in that the Jets are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 divisional games and 1-10 SU in the last 11 games coming off the bye.
- Chiefs (-4.5) at FanDuel Sportsbook
The Kansas City Chiefs are going to defeat the Los Angeles Chargers. They are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS on the road against them since the Chargers relocated from San Diego.
Covering the spread, though, that’s a different matter. Kansas City is 1-4 ATS in the past five games against the Chargers.
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Ryan is SBD's resident soccer pro, though his repertoire is by no means limited to a single sport. His articles have been published by the Canadian Hockey League (CHL), Ontario Hockey League (OHL), and the Kitchener Rangers, and outlets like SportsXpress and Shredthespread.com
