Fantasy Football 2019 Divisional Round (Saturday) – Temper Expectations of Mahomes

• The NFL Divisional Round of the playoffs begins today
• Could we see a shootout between Andrew Luck and Patrick Mahomes?
• Which running back will have a better day between Ezekiel Elliott and Todd Gurley?

NFL Divisional Playoffs kickoff today with games featuring the Indianapolis Colts in Kansas City and the Dallas Cowboys traveling to LA to face the Rams.

Odds have been released on fantasy betting props for Andrew Luck, Patrick Mahomes, Ezekiel Elliott and Todd Gurley.

Let’s take a quick look at how the scoring is calculated for these bets:

• Pass Yds = 1 pt per 25 yds, Pass TD = 4 pts, Pass INT = -2 pts
• Rush Yds = 1 pt per 10 yds, Rush TD = 6 pts, Fumble = -2 pts
• Rec Yds = 1 pt per 10 yds, Rec TD = 6 pts, Rec = 1 pt
• 2-Point Conversion: 2 pts
• Decimals ≥ 0.5 round up, < 0.5 round down

Andrew Luck O/U 22.5 Fantasy Points

*All odds taken 1/12 from “Fantasy Betting” option 

Luck and the Colts feature a pass-heavy offense with Luck attempting the third-most passes per game. Luck throws for an average of 39.9 passes per game and against a Chiefs’ defense ranking 31st overall Luck should have a field day.

In fact KC is 31st against the pass in allowing 273.4 YPG while Luck is throwing 287.1 YPG on the season.

Only two games all season has Luck failed to find the end zone and he hasn’t thrown for fewer than two touchdowns in his past four games.

"I would be shocked if he outplays Andrew Luck." – @Nate13Burleson on Patrick Mahomes vs. the #Colts

?: @gmfb pic.twitter.com/TYKGUy90lW

— NFL Network (@nflnetwork) January 11, 2019

To reach 22.5 points you’re basically looking for Luck to total just over 300 yards and to throw for at least two touchdowns.

Both of these seem well within his reach in what could be an open game especially if they fall behind to the Chiefs’ high-powered offense.

The last top QB who faced Kansas City would’ve cashed the OVER with Russell Wilson throwing 271 yards and three TDs in Week 16, while rushing for 57 yards.

Pick: OVER 22.5 (-165)

Patrick Mahomes O/U 26.5 Fantasy Points

The Colts may be the league’s hottest team but rarely have they faced an offense like the Chiefs or a quarterback like Mahomes. Indy have rarely faced an offense ranked in the top ten or even top 20.

Since playing the Patriots back in October, you’d be hard-pressed to name another QB mentioned among some of the game’s best.

Mahomes is just that and may take home the league’s MVP award this year.

You think this weather will be a problem for these Chiefs fans? Think again. And how has Ande Reid prepared Patrick Mahomes for his first ever playoff game? pic.twitter.com/33t0m3fPXP

— James Palmer (@JamesPalmerTV) January 12, 2019

Expect to see plenty of passing from the Chiefs as well. Mahomes attempts 36.3 passes per game, good for tenth overall.

That average has dipped the past couple games in only attempting 27 and 28 passes. However, that didn’t stop him from throwing for a combined ten touchdowns.

Ex-NFL QB masterfully breaks down what makes the Colts simplistic defense so good https://t.co/l0RhvW5yTJ pic.twitter.com/Nua3oWWxa9

— For The Win (@ForTheWin) January 12, 2019

Can Mahomes exceed this total? Absolutely.

But the Colts’ defense ranks 16th and is only allowing 237.8 YPG. Last week on the road they held DeShaun Watson to only 235 yards, one touchdown and grabbed one interception.

This will be Mahomes’ first playoff game and when you do the math he’ll need at least 350 passing yards and three touchdowns to hit 26 fantasy points. That’s not counting rush attempts, but he’ll need to have a near-perfect game to reach this total.

Pick: UNDER 26.5 (-135)

Ezekiel Elliott O/U 22.5 Fantasy Points

After being rested in Week 17, Zeke was ready to go on Wild Card Weekend last week against the Seahawks.

Elliott carried the ball 26 times for 137 yards and one touchdown on the ground while adding 32 yards receiving on four catches.

In this scoring format he would’ve easily cashed with 27 fantasy points.

The two best running backs in the league square off in Los Angeles tomorrow night.

Ezekiel Elliott has the edge in yards, but Todd Gurley put up more points. Who'd you pick to join your squad: @EzekielElliott or @TG3II? pic.twitter.com/KEfOPYNgaN

— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) January 11, 2019

That came against a Seahawks’ defense ranked 16th overall in allowing 353.3 YPG. Tonight’s opponent actually ranks a little below that at 19th in allowing 358.6 YPG.

Elliott should be able to pencil in at least eight fantasy points as a receiver as well. He hasn’t caught fewer than four passes since October 21. He also averages just under 40 YPG as a receiver.

The OVER is a heavy favorite and likely for a reason as it’s risen from 20.5 during this writing.

Pick: OVER 22.5 (-220)

Todd Gurley O/U 23.5 Fantasy Points

Gurley at his best could easily hit this total, but there is still a question of his health. While Rams coach Sean McVay says Gurley is ready to go, the star running back hasn’t played since December 16.

He had also cooled way down since his dominant start to the season. Gurley rushed for only 48 and 28 yards in his last two games. In fact, in his last six games he only went over 100 yards rushing twice. In the other four games his high was 68.

Todd Gurley is back ? pic.twitter.com/rzmVmo1yvZ

— LA Rams Nation (@RamsNationCP) January 11, 2019

Outside of a game in Philly back in December where he caught ten passes, his usage as a receiver has dropped with no receiving touchdowns since October.

McVay has been known to get away from using Gurley and now he may share some of the load with CJ Anderson.

The #DallasCowboys offense has given way to a defense led by a collection of homegrown cornerstones, new linebacker talent, and a fresh coaching voice. #DALvsLAR@robertmays: https://t.co/Mnq0z0abGB

— The Ringer (@ringer) January 11, 2019

The Cowboys defense also ranks fifth against the run and ninth in weighted DVOA.

Pick: UNDER 23.5 (-165)