Final NFL Draft Predictions – Best Value Bets for First Round
By Ryan Potts in NFL News
Published:
- The 2026 NFL Draft begins on Thursday, April 23
- The Raiders hold the #1 pick
- Continue reading for my best NFL Draft value bets
At long last, the 2026 NFL Draft is here. With 257 players about to find NFL homes, there are a slew of betting markets to milk value from. While the #1 pick is almost certainly going to be Fernando Mendoza heading to Las Vegas, intrigue begins with the #2 pick, currently held by the New York Jets. Beyond the Jets, chaos will follow.
Pittsburgh will host the three-day event, with Round 1 beginning at 8:00 pm ET on Thursday night. ESPN, ABC, and NFL Network will televise the selections.
Keep reading for my four best NFL Draft value bets, as well as the odds for various markets to monitor tonight, Friday, and Saturday.
O/U Draft Position Pick: Jordyn Tyson Over 8.5
Arizona State wide receiver Jordyn Tyson has a 63% chance to go in the top eight picks of the 2026 NFL Draft, but I am fading these odds. After the top four teams, there is a run of potential suitors, but the Giants, Browns, Commanders, and Saints not only have other needs than wide receiver, but Tyson is likely the second receiver off the board behind Carnell Tate.
Tyson is incredibly talented, but he has an extensive injury history for his entire collegiate career. He missed most of the 2023 season with a knee injury, and he missed Arizona State’s Big 12 Title game and CFP appearances in 2024. In 2025, he was in and out of the lineup. With other safer options in the top eight, I expect Tyson to slide into the middle of the first round.
Best Bet
First Wide Receiver Drafted Pick: Carnell Tate
Keeping with the Tyson theme, I expect Ohio State’s Carnell Tate to be the first receiver off the board on Thursday night. As mentioned, the first four teams are unlikely to take a wide receiver, but Tate’s range begins at #5 with the Giants. Tate would be a natural fit for the Giants, slotting in as the #2 wide receiver once Malik Nabers returns from injury.
At #6, the Browns could opt to keep Tate in the state of Ohio as their top wide receiver. On Kalshi, the Browns have a 29% chance to take Tate, narrowly edging out Washington (28%) and New Orleans (18%). Tyson, meanwhile, is favored to go to the Giants (50%). However, much of that handle is based on the Giants holding the #10 pick in the draft.
By Kalshi’s draft position odds, this is also a reasonable bet as Tate’s position is set at 7.5 while Tyson’s is set at 8.5.
Best Bet: Carnell Tate as 1st Receiver Taken (Yes – 50¢)
Team to Draft Olaivavega Ioane: BAL Ravens
The top guard in the class, Olaivavega Ioane is favored to be heading to Baltimore with a 41% chance on Kalshi. The Giants sit in second place with a 27% chance. The Chargers and Dolphins are at 13%, while the Steelers round out the top five with a 9% chance to keep Ioane in the state of Pennsylvania.
Baltimore currently holds the #14 pick in the NFL Draft. While they have enough draft ammo to move up, the Ravens generally operate on a “let the value fall to you” process on draft day. Ioane is the top interior offensive lineman in the class, a position of desperate need for Baltimore. On Kalshi, Baltimore has a 69% chance to draft an offensive lineman with its first pick, dwarfing wide receiver and tight end among other positions.
Best Bets: Ravens Draft Ioane (40¢), Ioane to be the #14 Pick (28¢)
Odds to Go in the 1st Round
For this prop, the value usually comes from the bottom of the round, taking shots on players to be one of the last few picks. In 2026, this includes players such as Cashius Howell (23%), Jadarian Price (18%), and Brandon Cisse (16%). However, I find tremendous value in Jermod McCoy being listed as a toss-up to be a first-round pick (49%).
McCoy missed the entire 2025 season while recovering from an ACL injury. However, he has been a mainstay in the top half of mock drafts the entire process. Even with the injury and the usual tumult of the draft order, McCoy is practically a toss-up with LSU’s Mansoor Delane to be the first cornerback taken and the second defensive back off the board (after safety Caleb Downs).
On Kalshi, McCoy’s over/under line is set at 25.5, a line I find highly questionable. At worst, McCoy is the second-best cornerback in the draft (Delane), and cornerback is among the most valuable positions. The window for McCoy begins with the Dolphins at #11 and heats up with the likes of the Jets (#16) and Cowboys (#20). Even if McCoy were to slip to the end of the round, teams such as Kansas City (#29), Miami (#30), and Seattle (#32) would be reasonable picks to cash this bet.
Best Bets: Jermod McCoy is a first-round pick (51¢), Under 25.5 (29¢)
Ryan Potts is a veteran football and baseball content creator. He was previously a credentialed NFL media member, covering the draft, bombine, and Super Bowl. He has been featured on Atlanta sports talk radio and Arizona student radio. Ryan is a journalism graduate from the University of Arizona.
