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Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions Prediction, Spread & Odds for Week 12

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in NFL Football

Updated Nov 22, 2023 · 2:15 PM PST

The Lions are 7.5-point home favorites over the Packers.
Green Bay Packers defensive tackle Devonte Wyatt (95) chases Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff (16) during their football game Thursday, September 28, 2023, at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wis. Wm. Glasheen USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin
  • The Detroit Lions are 7.5-point home favorites over the Green Bay Packers in the Thanksgiving Day tilt between these two NFC North clubs on Thursday, November 23
  • Detroit is 4-0 SU and ATS in the past four games with Green Bay. The Packers are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games against the Lions
  • Get our top Packers vs Lions picks for the first Thanksgiving Day game here

Coming off a rare failure to cover, all signs are pointing toward the Detroit Lions (8-2, 7-3 ATS) getting back on the winning side of the against the spread line as they face the Green Bay Packers (4-6, 5-5 ATS) in an NFC North clash on Thanksgiving Day as favorites in the Packers vs Lions odds.

For starters, the Lions have rebounded to cover the next game in each of the past four occasions that they were coming off an against the spread failure. Then there’s Detroit’s sterling coverage rate of late when facing the Packers.

Overall, Detroit is 4-0 straight up and ATS in the past four games against Green Bay, The Lions are also 5-0 ATS the last five times that the Packers were visiting Detroit.

Following these betting trends, oddsmakers are setting Detroit as 7.5-point home favorites in the Packers vs Lions odds. That’s the largest spread given to the Lions in a game vs Green Bay since they were also the 7.5-point home chalk in a 35-11 home-field win on Dec. 31, 2017.

Packers vs Lions Odds

Team Moneyline Spread Total
Green Bay Packers +290 +7.5 (-110) Over 46.5 (-118)
Detroit Lions -360 -7.5 (-110) Under 46.5 (-104)

In the Green Bay vs Detroit odds, the Lions are -360 moneyline favorites, giving them a 78.26% implied win probability. The total is set at 46.5 points. Only the Chicago Bears (7-4) have gone over more often this season than Detroit (6-4).

Odds as of November 22 at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Kickoff for this game at Ford Field on Thursday, November 2, is set for 12:30pm ET. The broadcast is being carried by FOX, as well as by DAZN in Canada.

Green Bay vs Detroit Betting Trends

Looking at the NFL public betting splits, the Lions are drawing 71% of spread handle and 94% of moneyline handle.

Detroit is 6-0 SU and ATS in the last six games as a betting favorite over Green Bay. That includes a 40-10 rout as the 7-point home chalk in their previous Thanksgiving Day game on November 28, 2013.

Total bettors are leaning toward the over in both handle and bets. The under has hit in six of the past eight Green Bay vs Detroit games. However, five of the last seven Lions games went over. Then again, five of the last six Packers games went under.

Detroit is the seventh betting choice in the Super Bowl odds at +1300. The Packers are set with odds of +15000 in this betting market.

Lions Dominate NFC North

The north belongs to Detroit – well the NFC North does. For the first time since 1962, when Vince Lombardi was coaching the Packers and JFK was in the White House, the Lions are 8-2. They sit atop the division standings.

Detroit is 11-3 ATS in the last 14 games against divisional opponents. Straight up the Lions have won seven games in a row within the division. Lions coach Dan Campbell is 4-1 SU against Green Bay.

As for the Packers, they are 6-14 ATS in the last 20 games facing Detroit. Green Bay is 1-2 SU in the division this season.

Can Packers Slow Detroit Offense?

The Lions can move the football and they can score the football. Detroit is scoring 27.2 points per game, which is #6 in the NFL. The Lions are also #2 in total offense (399.6 yards per game), and #4 in passing (263 YPG) and #5 in rushing (136.6 YPG). Detroit and Miami are the only NFL teams to rank in the top five in both rushing and passing offense.

Then there’s the vastly underrated pass-and-catch combo of Lions QB Jared Goff and WR Amon-Ra St Brown. If you’re seeking a play in the Week 12 Packers vs Lions props, St Brown leads all NFL receivers with six 100-yard games. Or maybe go with Goff. He’s thrown a TD pass in 18 successive home games. That’s the second-longest current streak in the league.

Packers vs Lions Prediction

It would be wrong to suggest Detroit owns Green Bay on Thanksgiving, but the Lions have gotten the better of the Packers on Turkey Day. Detroit is 12-8-1 SU vs the Packers on Thanksgiving. Overall, the Packers are an underwhelming 14-20-2 SU on the holiday.

In more recent news, the Packers are 2-5 ATS over their past seven games. They’ve lost four of the last five on the road.

Packers vs Lions Picks: Detroit Lions -7.5 (-115)

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