Jameis Winston Favored Over Prescott, Rivers & Goff to Finish With Most Passing Yards

• Jameis Winston is coming off a 456-yard passing game with four touchdowns and three interceptions
• Dak Prescott is averaging 344.4 passing yards over his last five games
• Winston has a small fracture on his throwing hand, so there is good value with Prescott at +110

Jameis Winston continues to be one of the most confounding players in the NFL. While he’s a turnover machine, he’s actually on pace for over 5,000 yards. He’s now favored to lead the league in passing yards. Is he a good bet to do so or is there better value with someone else?

Odds to Lead NFL in Passing Yards in 2019

Odds taken Dec. 10.

Winston Fresh off Incredible Performance

Winston is in the running to lead the league in passing thanks in part to an incredible effort last Sunday. It was incredible not in the amazing type of way; it’s that it’s actually hard to believe. Winston threw three interceptions – including a pick-six and seemingly crippled his team’s chances of winning.

At the same time, Winston also threw for 456 yards with four touchdowns, averaging an incredible 10.1 yards-per-attempt. In terms of this prop, Winston is now just seven yards short of Dak Prescott for the league lead. He also has the best schedule remaining as his three final opponents are all ranked 24^th in pass defense or worse.

Winston Broke His Thumb

One of the key issues with betting Winston here is that he broke his thumb on his throwing hand last week. It’s just a hairline fracture, so he’s expected to play in Week 15 and beyond. He reportedly played through it in the second half last week but this is something that would keep me away from betting him here.

Beyond that, keep in mind that he’s also lost his best weapon in wideout Mike Evans. The Bucs have suggested that Evans’ injury is serious and that he’s expected to miss the rest of the season. These two factors will lead me to pass on Winston in this spot.

Rivers, Goff Have Been on a Tear

Los Angeles Chargers’ starter Philip Rivers has been on a mini tear since his ugly four-interception performance three weeks ago. In his last two games, he has 579 passing yards. As for Jared Goff, he’s been even better as he’s posted 717 passing yards the last two weeks.

The challenge is that Rivers is 374 yards off the pace right now and Goff is 410 back. They’ll have to make that up on Dak Prescott by the end of the season if either are to win. I have a hard time believing Rivers is 124 yards per week better Prescott or that Goff is 137 better. That being the case, I’ll pass on both.

Value With Prescott?

Prescott is the current leader in the clubhouse but he’s still at +110 rather than the chalk. That’s because Tampa Bay hardly runs the ball while Dallas is a run-oriented team. However, Dallas has run their offense through Prescott this season and I don’t think his passing yards will fall off in the last three weeks.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l9gaKdmRCE4

Keep in mind that the Cowboys have an easy schedule with the Philadelphia Eagles and Washington Redskins in the final two weeks. This week, they’ll face the Los Angeles Rams, who have a strong defense, but Prescott has averaged 344.4 passing yards over his last five games. I’m not expecting the Rams to cut him off completely here.

The Cowboys are in the middle of a nosedive but that’s not impacting Prescott. With him playing for a new contract, I’d bet him at +110 to finish the year as the league’s leading passer – especially since Winston has a hairline fracture on his throwing thumb.

Best Bet: Prescott (+110)