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Josh Allen Remains NFL MVP Favorite; Brady, Stafford Continue to Trail

Bryan Thiel

by Bryan Thiel in NFL Football

Nov 1, 2021 · 6:46 AM PDT

Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills, celebrates
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) celebrates after his touchdown during the second half of an NFL football game against the Miami Dolphins, Sunday, Oct. 31, 2021, in Orchard Park, N.Y. (AP Photo/Jeffrey T. Barnes)
  • Josh Allen and Matthew Stafford were among the MVP candidates to score rare wins in Week 8
  • Both were top-five in the 2021 NFL MVP odds after Week 7
  • See the updated odds below

It was not a good week if you were atop the NFL MVP odds following Week 7.

Kyler Murray lost to Aaron Rodgers on Thursday night in a meme-worthy ending. Dak Prescott missed Sunday Night Football with a calf injury, Tom Brady and Justin Herbert lost, and Derrick Henry suffered a potential season-ending injury. FanDuel has already reacted to the news, taking Henry off the board.

Both Josh Allen and Matthew Stafford pulled out wins, though. And as we all know, when it comes to individual awards, wins are almost important as statistics.

2021 NFL MVP Odds

Player Odds
Josh Allen, BUF +200
Tom Brady, TB +600
Dak Prescott, DAL +600
Kyler Murray, ARZ +600
Aaron Rodgers, GB +800
Matthew Stafford, LAR +800
Derek Carr, LVR +2000
Justin Herbert, LAC +2000
Lamar Jackson, BAL +2000
Joe Burrow, CIN +4000
Patrick Mahomes, KC +4000
Ryan Tannehill, TEN +5000
Cooper Kupp, LAR +7500
Alvin Kamara, NO +15000

Odds as of November 1st from FanDuel


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Due to Patrick Mahomes’ struggles, the names atop the 2021 NFL MVP odds have changed with some frequency. Kyler Murray’s stake to the title began to lose steam, and his Thursday night loss didn’t help matter. Matthew Stafford and Dak Prescott have spent some time as the favorite as well.

But Allen has held strong for three-straight weeks now. He moved into a tie atop the table following Week 6, and despite a Week 7 bye, took over as the favorite. On Sunday, he only added to his case.

Allen, Bills Dominate Dolphins Again

Josh Allen didn’t start out with the flashiest weeks, but the Bills were getting the job done.

Allen stuck around in the early going of the season, even though he wasn’t doing as much as his contemporaries. But he’s hit his stride lately, and the Bills scored some big wins and hung tight in their losses.

Josh Allen Week-by-Week

Week Comp/Att Yards TD INT Rushing Yards Rushing TD Rating
Week 1 vs PIT; L 23-6 30/51 270 1 0 44 0 79.7
Week 2 @ MIA; W 35-0 17/33 179 2 1 35 0 75.2
Week 3 vs WAS; W 43-21 32/43 358 4 0 9 1 129.8
Week 4 vs HOU; W 40-0 20/30 248 2 1 41 0 100.4
Week 5 @ KC; W 38-20 15/26 315 3 0 59 1 139.1
Week 6 @ TEN; L 34-31 35/47 353 3 1 26 0 107.8
Week 8 vs MIA; W 26-11 29/42 249 2 0 55 1 100.2

Allen has been racking up the touchdowns both through the air and on the ground. Up until Sunday he was doing a good job of putting up major yardage too.

The biggest thing however, has been limiting the turnovers. Allen has just one lost fumble this year, giving him four turnovers in 2021. Over his first three seasons, Allen lost 12 fumbles and threw 31 interceptions.

With the Jags and Jets coming up, Allen has two prime opportunities to pad his stats.

Stafford, Kupp Continue to Make Magic

While it’s been pretty far down the list, Cooper Kupp’s name has continued to show up on the MVP odds this season. Further proof that Matthew Stafford’s new home with the Rams has been mutually beneficial.

Stafford breezed his way to another 300 yard game through the air, mixing in three more TDs against the Texans. What did that mean for Kupp? Just another seven receptions for 115 yards and a TD of his own.

Kupp has one game this season where he’s caught fewer than seven passes. That was also the only game where he finished with fewer than 90 yards.

Kupp’s biggest detriment is that it’s the man throwing him the ball that’s taken his performance from great to other-worldly.

The beatdown of the Texans was Stafford’s fifth 300-yard game of the season, and he’s finished below 275 just once. He’s thrown multiple touchdowns in seven of eight games and his interception percentage (1.7%) is tied for his career low.

LA’s schedule sees them host the Titans and then travel to San Francisco to face the 49ers. Stafford could easily exit Sunday Night Football in Week 9 with a firm grasp on the MVP odds.

Long-Term Views with MVP Candidates

Tom Brady’s yards (375) and TD (four) totals were nice on Sunday, but the turnovers were not. Brady fumbled once and threw two interceptions. The turnovers are typically an outlier with Brady, so he’s got more forgiveness than other contenders.

Another advantage that Brady has is his upcoming schedule. Washington, the Giants, Colts and Falcons are all up ahead for Tampa. That’s a lot of opportunity for TB12 to keep airing it out.

While Aaron Rodgers is another name with good value that has a slightly tougher schedule, Stafford and Brady are the names to watch. Both have a chance to move up the board in the coming weeks, and the odds are only getting tighter.


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