Upcoming Match-ups

Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders Odds, Predictions and Best Bets for Week 18

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in NFL Football

Updated Apr 12, 2023 · 1:06 PM PDT

Patrick Mahomes slaps hands with fans
Jan 1, 2023; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) greets fans after defeating the Denver Broncos at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports
  • KC is giving 9.5 points at Las Vegas in the Chiefs vs Raiders odds on Saturday in Week 18
  • The Chiefs are 5-0 straight up versus divisional opponents this season, but 0-5 ATS
  • The latest Chiefs vs Raiders odds are listed below, along with injury updates and best bets

The last week of the NFL regular season is upon us, and the action kicks off a day early with a Saturday doubleheader. Game number one features the Chiefs (13-3, 6-2 away) visiting the Raiders (6-10, 4-3 home), with Kansas City still having plenty to play for.

The Chiefs can clinch a first round playoff bye with a victory. Online sportsbooks are expecting Kansas City to dominate judging by the Week 18 NFL odds, but don’t be surprised if this game winds up being closer than expected.

Chiefs vs Raiders Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Kansas City Chiefs -9.5 (-105) -400 O 51.5 (-110)
Las Vegas Raiders +9.5 (-115) +315 U 51.5 (-110)

Odds as of January 5th at FanDuel Sportsbook. Get the FanDuel promo code to bet on NFL Week 18.

The Chiefs are currently 9.5 point favorites, in a contest that features a total of 51.5. As of Thursday evening, the majority of bettors are backing both the Raiders and the over. 55% of the spread tickets and handle are on Las Vegas at +9.5, while 75% of all money wagered on the total is backing over 51.5.

Kickoff for this AFC West clash is set for 4:30 pm ET inside Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, NV, with ESPN providing the broadcast coverage.

Kansas City Chiefs Betting Analysis

Kansas City enters play riding a four-game winning streak, although none of those victories came over teams occupying a playoff spot.

Patrick Mahomes continues to put up video game numbers, throwing for over 325 yards in three of his past four games, along with 12 passing touchdowns and two rushing scores. He’s now the overwhelming favorite in the NFL MVP odds and will be looking to continue his dominance over KC’s division rival.

Mahomes is 8-1 all-time versus the Raiders franchise, with a 26-to-3 TD-to-INT rate. He torched them for 292 yards and 4 TD back in Week 5, as the Chiefs narrowly edged out the Raiders 30-29 on Monday Night Football.

That’s the thing about Kansas City this season. They’re winning games at an elite clip, but they’re not running away from teams, especially bad ones. Case in point last week against the Broncos. Kansas City trailed a four-win Denver team heading into the fourth quarter, barely squeaking out a 27-24 win.

That was their second one-score victory over the Broncos in four weeks, and their seventh one-score win of the season. As we’ll explore, they’re one of the worst teams in the league against the spread and have historically struggled to cover big numbers on the road with Mahomes under center – more on that later.

On the injury front, speedster Mecole Hardman (abdominal) is off IR and will play on a limited basis. As soon as one wide receiver comes back though, another goes down. Rookie wideout Sky Moore (hand) will sit out, while stud kicker Harrison Butker (back) is questionable.

Las Vegas Raiders Betting Analysis

Just because the Raiders’ playoff hopes have been washed away, don’t expect this team to roll over. That’s apparently what San Francisco was expecting last week, and Las Vegas promptly hung 34 points on the NFL’s top-rated defense.

The most impressive part about the performance was that it was led not by Derek Carr, but Jarrett Stidham. Making his first career start, Stidham threw for 365 yards and 3 TD, becoming just the second QB all season with three touchdown passes against the Niners. The other, is Patrick Mahomes.

Stidham ranked seventh among quarterbacks in expected points added per play last week, and third in passing success rate. He had no problem getting the ball to Davante Adams, who had the second-best game of his season (11/153/2) despite playing just a handful of regular season snaps previously with Stidham.

Also working in the former Patriots’ favor, is a healthy pass-catching corps. Tight end Darren Waller had his best game of the season (3/72/1), playing for just the third time since early October. Hunter Renfroe was also back for just the third time since early November, giving Stidham a reliable safety blanket in the slot.

Before the Raiders’ love goes too far, we can’t ignore their porous defense. Las Vegas ranks 31st on defense per DVOA, and bottom-eight in both points and yards allowed.

On the injury front, starting RB Josh Jacobs is officially questionable with hip and oblique injuries. Jacobs suffered the injury last week and has yet to practice this week.

Chiefs vs Raiders Trends and Predictions

We’ve seen this story unfold too many times involving the Chiefs. They win, but they simply do not cover as big road favorites. They’re 3-8 ATS as touchdown-plus favorites with Mahomes under center away from home, failing to cover in five straight.

They’re 5-0 straight up versus divisional opponents this season, but 0-5 against the spread. KC’s cover woes have extended outside of the division as well, as they’re a league-worst 1-10 ATS against conference opponents. The Chiefs are 0-4 ATS in their last four road outings and 1-4 ATS in their past five games overall.

Chiefs vs Raiders Last 5 Meetings

Date Away Team Home Team Result
10/10/22 Raiders Chiefs KC, 30-29
12/12/21 Raiders Chiefs KC, 48-9
11/14/21 Chiefs Raiders KC, 41-14
11/22/20 Chiefs Raiders KC, 35-31
10/11/20 Raiders Chiefs LV, 40-32

Las Vegas meanwhile, is 5-1 ATS in its past six home games with three straight covers. They easily covered as 7-point road ‘dogs in their first meeting with KC, and I’m betting on them doing so again on Saturday.

Pick: Las Vegas Raiders +9.5 (-115), 1 unit

2022 NFL Season Picks Record: 9-7, +0.94 units

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