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Kyler Murray’s NFL MVP Odds Improve from +2300 to +900 After Miraculous Win Over Bills in Week 10

Kevin Allen

by Kevin Allen in NFL Football

Updated Nov 16, 2020 · 6:35 AM PST

Kyler Murray celebrating
Kyler Murray celebrating a touchdown. (Photo by Kevin Abele/Icon Sportswire)
  • Arizona Cardinals quarterback’s odds improvement from +2300 to +900  puts him fourth in NFL MVP race behind Patrick Mahomes (+175), Russell Wilson (+250), and Aaron Rodgers (+300)
  • Kyler Murray is a second-year NFL quarterback, and second-year QBs (Mahomes and Jackson) have won the MVP award the last two seasons
  • See the updated NFL MVP odds and our pick to win the award below


With one successful Hail Mary heave, Kyler Murray informed the NFL that the Arizona Cardinals are for real and that he will be a major factor in the MVP race.

In the waning seconds, with his team trailing, Murray connected on a 43-yard TD pass to DeAndre Hopkins to give Cardinals (6-3) a 32-30 win against the Buffalo Bills. The winning throw, with two seconds left, was the most talked-about play of Week 10.

Murray’s MVP odds had increased from +1925 on Nov. 3 to +2300 on Nov. 10 after the Cardinals lost to the Miami Dolphins.  Murray’s odds were as high as +3750 on Oct. 6.


2020 NFL  MVP Odds

Player (Team) Odds
Patrick Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs) +175
Russell Wilson (Seattle Seahawks) +250
Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay Packers) +300
Kyler Murray (Arizona Cardinals) +900
Tom Brady (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) +2000
Josh Allen (Buffalo Bills) +2300
Ben Roethlisberger (Pittsburgh Steelers) +3000
Alvin Kamara (New Orleans Saints) +5000
Dalvin Cook (Minnesota Vikings) +5000
Philip Rivers (Indianapolis Colts) +5000

Odds taken Nov. 16th at Fanduel

Murray Boasts the Legs and Arm of an MVP

While Murray’s 263.9 yards per game passing average doesn’t put him among the top throwers, it is good enough to rank him in the upper half of NFL quarterbacks.

His 604 rushing yards, however, are tops among quarterbacks and place him ninth on the total rushing list. The only other QB in the top 25 is Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson who is 13th with 524 yards in 90 carries. Murray is averaging 6.9 yards per carry, compared to Jackson’s 5.7 yards per carry.

But it isn’t just statistics that are moving Murray up the MVP list. His energy, generalship, and talent have transformed the Cardinals into a legitimate contending team.

Wilson’s MVP Chances Have Taken a Major Blow

Russell Wilson could do no wrong early in the season. He was playing like a quarterback who was headed for his first MVP trophy.

He was a -171 MVP favorite on Nov. 3.  But Wilson’s Seahawks have lost three of their last four games. He hasn’t been at his best. In his last two games, losses to Buffalo and Los Angeles, Wilson has seven turnovers (four interceptions and three lost fumbles).  Wilson has seven interceptions in his past four games. His quarterback was a miserable 57.0 in a 23-16 loss to the Rams.

Wilson can certainly still win the MVP.  His overall numbers are impressive.  Everyone is aware that he has never won the award, even though he has previously played well enough to win it. Wilson simply needs to play like he did at the start of the season when he looked almost unstoppable

Murray Belongs in Discussion with Top MVP Candidates

On a pass to rush for 1,074 yards and pass for 4,224 yards, Murray deserves heavy consideration for the MVP Award.

Last season’s winner Lamar Jackson rushed for 1,206 yards and passed for 3,127. Jackson threw for 36 touchdowns and Murray is on a pace for 30 TD passes.  Murray is completing 68.2% of his passes and Jackson completed 66.1%.

At age 23, Murray has developed into one of the league’s creative difference-makers. He is an artful play-maker. He is just as dangerous, if not more dangerous than Jackson was when he won the award last year.

Young Murray a Good Value Bet

If you are hoping to hit on a good-odds payoff, Murray is a quality option. He has a fair chance to win MVP, particularly if the Cardinals win most of their games over the next seven games.

It’s not a cakewalk schedule: the Cardinals play the Seahawks Thursday and have the Rams twice and the pesky San Francisco 49ers yet to play. Murray has had poor games this season and needs to show consistency down the stretch to have an MVP shot.

Mahomes is the legitimate favorite because of his consistency and the quality of his team.

Pick: Patrick Mahomes (+175)

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