Kyler Murray’s Odds of Being Selected 1st Overall Listed at -400 Less Than 1 Month Before Draft
- Kyler Murray won the 2018 Heisman Trophy
- He is projected by many, including Mel Kiper Jr., to be selected 1st by the Arizona Cardinals
- The NFL draft begins Thursday, April 25th
Oh how times have changed. Remember when people weren’t even sure Kyler Murray would be an NFL Draft pick? Now, the odds definitely tell a different story.
Secrets are popular this time of year in NFL circles. With over 220 NCAA players about to be taken in the 2019 NFL Draft, it’s reasonable GMs from around the league want to keep their opinions and plans to themselves.
The only team that doesn’t need to be secretive: the Arizona Cardinals.
Odds to Be Selected First Overall in 2019 NFL Draft
| 2019 1st Overall Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | -400 |
| Nick Bosa | +225 |
| Quinnen Williams | +1800 |
| Josh Allen | +2000 |
Odds taken March 26.
Murray has seen his odds skyrocket like few prospects before him. He finally worked his way into the first round conversation in early January, only to see his stock rise again after being measured at the combine.
And just 22 days ago, Murray became the odds-on favorite to be selected first overall.
But now, less than one month from the 2019 NFL Draft, Murray’s odds of going first overall continue to shorten.
When it comes to the 1st overall pick the Cardinals can be as up front as they so choose. They don’t need to hide their love for Oklahoma Sooners QB Kyler Murray and if they want him they can take him.
First five picks in my Mock Draft 3.0:
1. Cardinals: Kyler Murray, QB
2. 49ers: Nick Bosa, DE
3. Jets: Josh Allen, OLB
4. Raiders: Quinnen Williams, DT
5. Bucs: Devin White, ILBFull 1-32: https://t.co/01e6edhCVq
— Mel Kiper Jr. (@MelKiperESPN) March 26, 2019
Despite needing to swallow a -400 price tag betting on Murray, he is actually a fantastic value play. Here are the two main reasons why I suggest you jump on this bet while it’s still being offered.
Kingsbury Wants Murray
Kliff Kingsbury took over as the Head Coach in Arizona and the reality is Josh Rosen isn’t his guy.
That’s not to say Rosen isn’t talented, or that he won’t go on to have a successful career, but he just isn’t the choice of the new boss. Kingsbury has the opportunity to grab the franchise QB that perfectly fits his system and there’s little reason to pass on that opportunity, even with edge rusher Nick Bosa on the board as well.
With news the Cardinals are meeting with Kyler Murray today…
Any team acquiring Josh Rosen in a trade would be on the hook for three-years, $6.24M, both in cash paid and total cap hits for a potential starter/valuable backup.
Every team should at least make a call to Arizona.
— Field Yates (@FieldYates) March 19, 2019
Kingsbury could get his guy and likely a decent return of draft picks and/or players in a trade for Rosen. The second-year QB has a very team-friendly contract and would likely be a hot commodity if made available.
There’s no reason to second guess yourself here if you’re Kingsbury. The guy you want is there, so you take him, plain and simple.
Could Another Team Trade Up For Murray?
There’s one alternative to the seemingly obvious option of the Cardinals drafting Murray: maybe they like Rosen and are just trying to raise the value of Murray to trade down.
If this was the case, that would still make Murray the overwhelmingly likely choice to go #1 overall. If this has all been a ploy to get a fortune from the Giants, Dolphins, or even Raiders, that would still have him going first overall.
The bet doesn’t say anything about being the team that drafts him being the Cardinals, just that he’s the first one off the board.
Cardinals HC Kliff Kingsbury gives high praise to Oklahoma QB Kyler Murray.
Will Arizona take Murray No.1 overall? pic.twitter.com/gXEfoxdvrD
— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) March 26, 2019
The mistake with bets like this when you see a -400 price tag is to find the underdog that provides value. In this case, the value lies with Murray, because he really is the only option at the top of the board.
Consider the steep price more of an investment than a wager. Whatever you feel comfortable laying down, you’ll get paid back 25% of it April 25th when Roger Goodell reads Murray’s name before any other player.
PICK: KYLER MURRAY (-400)
Ryan has been working at TSN for over eleven years, and is now a lead writer and content producer at That's Hockey. Over the years, he's launched and hosted TSN's first NCAAF podcast, The College Football Show, and been featured on the likes of TSN 1050, Sportscentre, and That's Hockey 2Nite.
