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Latest NFL MVP Odds Have Mahomes, Stafford, Murray and Others Listed as New Co-Favorites

Bryan Thiel

by Bryan Thiel in NFL Football

Updated Sep 27, 2021 · 2:42 PM PDT

Matthew Stafford, huddle, Los Angeles Rams
Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford (9) walks to the huddle during an NFL football game against the Indianapolis Colts, Sunday, Sept. 19, 2021, in Indianapolis. (AP Photo/Zach Bolinger)
  • The 2021 NFL MVP race is as tight as it’s ever been after Week 3
  • Matthew Stafford and Kyler Murray made strong statements, resulting in a six-way tie for first
  • See the updated 2021 NFL MVP Odds below

When it comes to Matthew Stafford and Kyler Murray, through three weeks, you can believe the hype.

We all believed that Murray and the Cardinals would have no problem with the Jaguars. Murray crossed the 300-yard plateau for the second time this season and mixed in 19 yards on the ground with a touchdown.

Meanwhile in LA, if the NFL could flex games to completely different weeks, they probably would. This would’ve been a stellar Sunday or Monday Night Week 12 showcase. Stafford and Tom Brady put their 2-0 records on the line and both put on a show. But Stafford finished with four TDs to Brady’s one.

So far so good following his 12 years in Detroit.

2021 NFL MVP Odds

Player Odds
Tom Brady, TB +800
Josh Allen, BUF +800
Aaron Rodgers, GB +800
Patrick Mahomes, KC +800
Kyler Murray, ARZ +800
Matthew Stafford, LAR +800
Justin Herbert, LAC +900
Dak Prescott, DAL +1600
Russell Wilson, SEA +1600
Derek Carr, LVR +2000
Lamar Jackson, BAL +2000
Ryan Tannehill, TEN +4000
Jameis Winston, NO +4000
Joe Burrow, CIN +5000
Baker Mayfield, CLE +5000
Derrick Henry, TEN +5000
Sam Darnold, CAR +8000
Teddy Bridgewater, DEN +8000
Jalen Hurts, PHI +800
Kirk Cousins, MIN +8000

Odds as of September 26th from FanDuel

Since the 2021 NFL MVP Odds opened back in February, this is the tightest that the race has been. On average, Murry and Brady were slightly behind Mahomes, but FanDuel teased this action last week, making Murray a co-favorite.

While it’s only been three weeks, they’ve seemingly separated the contenders from the pretenders, with eleven players at +2000 or better.  Derrick Henry is the only non-QB of note, with players like Cooper Kupp and Davante Adams appearing at +8000 or longer.

Stafford Comes Out on Top in Head-to-Head Duel

Both Stafford and Brady had been playing at an MVP-level entering Sunday. And with the level of defenses the two were facing, there was a good chance one, or both could fall off in the race.

But both thriving?

Brady vs Stafford: Week 3

Brady
VS
Stafford
41/55 Comp/Att 27/38
74.5% Comp% 71.1%
432 Yards 343
1 TD 4
0 INT 0
10.5 Y/Comp 12.7
+2.8 Rating 134.0

Sunday afternoon was basically the Brady show for the Bucs. They had 13 rushing attempts, and three of them belonged to Brady and one to Chris Godwin.

Brady actually led the team in rushing (14 yards) and mixed in a touchdown. The 432 yards through the air were a single-game high in his Tampa Bay career. It’s the first time Brady has thrown for 400+ yards in a regular season game since 2017.

Stafford was just throwing it all over his yard. He hit DeSean Jackson for a 75-yard TD, and four of the six Rams that caught a pass caught at least one that went 20+ yards. It was also the 13th time in his career Stafford has thrown four TD passes.

Kyler Keeps it Going; Mahomes Disappoints in Loss

Kyler Murray’s start to the season has been just as insane as his contemporaries. The win over Jacksonville gives him back-to-back games with 28+ completions, and back-to-back 300+ yard games. That’s just the second time he’s crossed 300 in consecutive games, since he did it in his first two NFL games.

The one thing that hurt Murray in Week 2 was the turnovers. And while he added another interception, giving him four on the year, he wasn’t the only one on Sunday.

Notable QB Performances: Week 3

Team Comp/Att Yards TD INT Rushing Yards Rushing TD Rating
Patrick Mahomes 27/44 260 3 2 45 0 81.6
Aaron Rodgers 23/33 261 2 0 0 0 113.3
Derek Carr 26/43 386 2 1 -2 0 95.7
Kyler Murray 28/34 316 0 1 19 1 93.1
Russell Wilson 23/32 298 1 0 7 0 111.2
Josh Allen 32/43 358 4 0 9 0 129.8

In a world where we judge QB performances on wins and losses, Mahomes and Wilson take hits. Allen rebounded nicely from an uneven performance in Week 2, dominating a defense many hold in high regard.

The name on the list that hasn’t gotten much love in this conversation in years past, is Carr’s. Angry bettors will hold Carr’s inability to avoid an ugly cover against him, but the fact is he has yet to throw for less than 380 yards in a game this year.

The TD numbers aren’t that gaudy with just two in each contest, but the Raiders are in a tie atop the AFC West. No matter how they got there, Carr deserves the attention.

Stafford Must Run Gauntlet

If you think his Week 3 matchup was tough, Stafford’s got Kyler Murray and Russell Wilson in back-to-back weeks. Mahomes has the Eagles and Bills on tap, while Brady has the Patriots and Dolphins.

Stafford faces the stiffest competition, but he could definitely find a way to navigate the Rams to 5-0. And if he does that, he should have a stranglehold atop the table.

If you like him, this may be the best price you get him at for a few weeks,

The Pick: Matthew Stafford (+800)

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