Latest NFL MVP Odds Have Mahomes, Stafford, Murray and Others Listed as New Co-Favorites

By Bryan Thiel in NFL Football
Published:

- The 2021 NFL MVP race is as tight as it’s ever been after Week 3
- Matthew Stafford and Kyler Murray made strong statements, resulting in a six-way tie for first
- See the updated 2021 NFL MVP Odds below
When it comes to Matthew Stafford and Kyler Murray, through three weeks, you can believe the hype.
We all believed that Murray and the Cardinals would have no problem with the Jaguars. Murray crossed the 300-yard plateau for the second time this season and mixed in 19 yards on the ground with a touchdown.
So through 3 weeks, who’s your NFL MVP? I think it’s between Kyler and Stafford right now
— Zirksee🍽️ (@Zirksee) September 26, 2021
Meanwhile in LA, if the NFL could flex games to completely different weeks, they probably would. This would’ve been a stellar Sunday or Monday Night Week 12 showcase. Stafford and Tom Brady put their 2-0 records on the line and both put on a show. But Stafford finished with four TDs to Brady’s one.
So far so good following his 12 years in Detroit.
2021 NFL MVP Odds
Player | Odds |
---|---|
Tom Brady, TB | +800 |
Josh Allen, BUF | +800 |
Aaron Rodgers, GB | +800 |
Patrick Mahomes, KC | +800 |
Kyler Murray, ARZ | +800 |
Matthew Stafford, LAR | +800 |
Justin Herbert, LAC | +900 |
Dak Prescott, DAL | +1600 |
Russell Wilson, SEA | +1600 |
Derek Carr, LVR | +2000 |
Lamar Jackson, BAL | +2000 |
Ryan Tannehill, TEN | +4000 |
Jameis Winston, NO | +4000 |
Joe Burrow, CIN | +5000 |
Baker Mayfield, CLE | +5000 |
Derrick Henry, TEN | +5000 |
Sam Darnold, CAR | +8000 |
Teddy Bridgewater, DEN | +8000 |
Jalen Hurts, PHI | +800 |
Kirk Cousins, MIN | +8000 |
Odds as of September 26th from FanDuel
Since the 2021 NFL MVP Odds opened back in February, this is the tightest that the race has been. On average, Murry and Brady were slightly behind Mahomes, but FanDuel teased this action last week, making Murray a co-favorite.
While it’s only been three weeks, they’ve seemingly separated the contenders from the pretenders, with eleven players at +2000 or better. Derrick Henry is the only non-QB of note, with players like Cooper Kupp and Davante Adams appearing at +8000 or longer.
Stafford Comes Out on Top in Head-to-Head Duel
Both Stafford and Brady had been playing at an MVP-level entering Sunday. And with the level of defenses the two were facing, there was a good chance one, or both could fall off in the race.
But both thriving?
Brady vs Stafford: Week 3
41/55 | Comp/Att | 27/38 |
74.5% | Comp% | 71.1% |
432 | Yards | 343 |
1 | TD | 4 |
0 | INT | 0 |
10.5 | Y/Comp | 12.7 |
+2.8 | Rating | 134.0 |
Sunday afternoon was basically the Brady show for the Bucs. They had 13 rushing attempts, and three of them belonged to Brady and one to Chris Godwin.
Brady actually led the team in rushing (14 yards) and mixed in a touchdown. The 432 yards through the air were a single-game high in his Tampa Bay career. It’s the first time Brady has thrown for 400+ yards in a regular season game since 2017.
Matthew Stafford threw for 343 yds, 4 TD & 0 Int in the Rams' win over the Bucs Sunday.
Stafford is just the 3rd QB to have a 4 TD-0 Int game when starting against Tom Brady.
The other 2 are Drew Brees (who did it twice) & Alex Smith. pic.twitter.com/uIIQc8thPV
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) September 26, 2021
Stafford was just throwing it all over his yard. He hit DeSean Jackson for a 75-yard TD, and four of the six Rams that caught a pass caught at least one that went 20+ yards. It was also the 13th time in his career Stafford has thrown four TD passes.
Kyler Keeps it Going; Mahomes Disappoints in Loss
Kyler Murray’s start to the season has been just as insane as his contemporaries. The win over Jacksonville gives him back-to-back games with 28+ completions, and back-to-back 300+ yard games. That’s just the second time he’s crossed 300 in consecutive games, since he did it in his first two NFL games.
The one thing that hurt Murray in Week 2 was the turnovers. And while he added another interception, giving him four on the year, he wasn’t the only one on Sunday.
Notable QB Performances: Week 3
Team | Comp/Att | Yards | TD | INT | Rushing Yards | Rushing TD | Rating |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Patrick Mahomes | 27/44 | 260 | 3 | 2 | 45 | 0 | 81.6 |
Aaron Rodgers | 23/33 | 261 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 113.3 |
Derek Carr | 26/43 | 386 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 95.7 |
Kyler Murray | 28/34 | 316 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 1 | 93.1 |
Russell Wilson | 23/32 | 298 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 111.2 |
Josh Allen | 32/43 | 358 | 4 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 129.8 |
In a world where we judge QB performances on wins and losses, Mahomes and Wilson take hits. Allen rebounded nicely from an uneven performance in Week 2, dominating a defense many hold in high regard.
Just Kyler's TENTH TD of the season already. #RedSea @K1
📺: #AZvsJAX on FOX
📱: NFL app pic.twitter.com/9GLqzLi3ur— NFL (@NFL) September 26, 2021
The name on the list that hasn’t gotten much love in this conversation in years past, is Carr’s. Angry bettors will hold Carr’s inability to avoid an ugly cover against him, but the fact is he has yet to throw for less than 380 yards in a game this year.
The TD numbers aren’t that gaudy with just two in each contest, but the Raiders are in a tie atop the AFC West. No matter how they got there, Carr deserves the attention.
Stafford Must Run Gauntlet
If you think his Week 3 matchup was tough, Stafford’s got Kyler Murray and Russell Wilson in back-to-back weeks. Mahomes has the Eagles and Bills on tap, while Brady has the Patriots and Dolphins.
Stafford faces the stiffest competition, but he could definitely find a way to navigate the Rams to 5-0. And if he does that, he should have a stranglehold atop the table.
If you like him, this may be the best price you get him at for a few weeks,
The Pick: Matthew Stafford (+800)

Sports Writer
Bryan has spent the last decade working in the sports industry. From the sidelines in the OHL and Rugby League to behind the scenes at TSN, Bryan has a wealth of experience with a soft spot for props and parlays.