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Can Luck Catch Mahomes in TD Passes? Sportsbooks’ Odds Against it

Colts QB Andrew Luck
Andrew Luck has thrown at least three TDs in eight straight games, bringing his season total up to 32. Photo by Keith Allison (Flickr) [CC License]
  • Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes leads the NFL with 37 TD passes, five more than Colts QB Andrew Luck
  • Sportsbooks list Mahomes as the overwhelming favorite to win the TD pass title
  • Luck has thrown at least three TD passes in eight straight games

Patrick Mahomes comes to throw touchdown passes. Andrew Luck comes to throw touchdown passes. When it all comes to pass, who will have passed for more touchdowns?

At the moment, Mahomes is that man, and sportsbooks are supremely confident that’s how it will end up. They are still listing Mahomes as the prohibitive favorite lead the NFL in TD passes.

Odds to Lead NFL in Touchdown Passes in 2018

Player Odds to have Most Passing TDs in 2018 NFL Regular Season
Patrick Mahomes -700
Andrew Luck +400
Drew Brees +3300

Luck has thrown 27 TD passes in the last eight games, an average of 3.375 per game, slowly catching up to Mahomes’ 37 on the season.

Is Mahom>es Standing Pat?


After he exploded for an NFL record 13 TD passes in the first three games of the season, people were touting Kansas City QB Mahomes to break the NFL single-season mark of 55 TD passes set in 2013 by Peyton Manning.

Once he fell off that pace, society moved on to the next flavor of the month, and that was Luck. But it’s not like Mahomes stopped passing for TDs, or didn’t you see him in action against the Los Angeles Rams on Monday Night Football a couple of weeks ago?

Mahomes has tossed for 23 TDs in the last six games, an average of 3.83 per game. In other words, as hot as Luck has been, Mahomes is still the one burning more brightly.

That’s What Passes For Luck

Who doesn’t love a good comeback story? People embrace the feel good with passion, and there’s no better warm and fuzzy going on in the NFL right now than Luck and the Indianapolis Colts.

The Colts were given up for dead after a 1-5 start, but now they’ve won five in a row and are smack in the middle of the playoff chase.

They can thank the man under center for that. Luck, who missed all of last season following shoulder surgery, has ignited this team.

He’s thrown 16 touchdown passes and just three INTs during their five-game winning streak. A big part of his success if the fact that he has been sacked just once in the last six games.

Could Mahomes Run Out Of Luck?

At their current paces, Mahomes will finish with 54 TD passes and Luck will garner 47. Even if Luck were to maintain his pace of the past eight games, he’d only end up with 49 TD passes.

NFL TD Pass Leaders

QB TD Passes in 2018
Patrick Mahomes 37
Andrew Luck 32
Drew Brees 29

Mahomes is the smart money here . . . unless the Chiefs opt to rest him once the division and home-field advantage are clinched. If that comes into play, Luck could be in with a slim chance. Otherwise, pass on betting Andrew and stand Pat.

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