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Odds Against Mahomes Breaking Manning’s Single-Season Passing TD Record

Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs
Since throwing 13 TDs in his first three games of the 2018 NFL season, Patrick Mahomes has tossed just one in the last two weeks. Photo by Jeffrey Beall.
  • Patrick Mahomes has thrown 14 TDs through five games
  • Peyton Manning’s single-season passing TD record stands at 55
  • See the odds of Mahomes breaking the record

Online betting sites have released odds on whether Patrick Mahomes will break Peyton Manning’s single-season passing TD record, and the odds are stacked against Mahomes.

Odds Mahomes Breaks Manning’s Single-Season Passing TD Record

Will Patrick Mahomes Break Manning’s Single-Season Passing TD Record Odds
Yes +500
No -900

Oddly enough, the odds have actually moved slightly in his favor since his record-setting first three games.

Mahomes Slowing Down

Early into the 2018 season, Mahomes already has NFL pundits crowning the second-year standout as MVP.  The 2018 NFL MVP odds support their claims.

Mahomes undoubtedly deserves a ton of credit, as he looks like the steal of the 2017 NFL Draft, where the Chiefs moved way up the board to draft him 10th overall.

That said, it has become unlikely Mahomes will one-up Manning’s outstanding 2013 season. Manning’s 2013 season holds as one of the most impressive feats in all of sports and the stats can prove it.

A quick comparison of Mahomes through five games shows that he is still off pace from Manning’s incredible season.

Patrick Mahomes vs Peyton Manning

Player Avg TD per Game Passing TDs Through 3 Games Passing TDs Through 5 Games Passer Rtg Rushing TD Avg INT/gm
Patrick Mahomes (2018 Season) 2.8 (5 games) 13 14 112.7 2 0.4
Peyton Manning (2013 Season) 3.43 (16 games) 12 20 115.1 1 0.63

Can Mahomes Catch Back Up?

Mahomes is currently on pace to throw for 44-45 TD’s, which is incredible for a QB who is in his first full year of play. But it’s much less than his 4.3 touchdown per game pace through three games.

The last two weeks, where Mahomes has only tossed one touchdown pass, have really hurt his chances of breaking the record. Looking back to Manning’s 2013 season, he only had one game where he threw less than two TD passes – he only threw one in a Week 11 tilt with the Pats – and it was sandwiched between four and two-TD performances.

It’s unlikely Mahomes can increase his TD rate per game by nearly a full touchdown. That is the rate needed if he is to close in on Manning’s record.

We have to factor in that Mahomes is a talented runner and when necessary can use his legs. Mahomes has already scored two rushing TD on the season.

Kareem Hunt is still on the Kansas City Chiefs. The 2017 rushing title winner is a far superior running back than any back who played with Peyton Manning in the 2013 season.

The Broncos relied on Manning to carry the offense with his arm; the Chiefs have the ability to grind out games in the trenches.

Finally, Patrick Mahomes is essentially in his first season as he essentially red-shirted last year, but for one game. Mahomes will have a rookie slump somewhere in the 2018 season.

Mahomes looked more like a mortal against the Jaguars throwing two interceptions and no touchdowns. Teams will get more film on Mahomes and the Chiefs, and scheme up defenses to slow this offense down.

Pick: NO (-900)

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