Upcoming Match-ups
Tmrw
26
Apr
5:30 PM
MIL
IND
+5.5
-5.5
222.5
8:00 PM
LAC
DAL
+4.5
-4.5
211.5
10:30 PM
MIN
PHO
+4
-4
207.5
Saturday
27
Apr
3:30 PM
OKC
NO
-1
+1
209.5
6:00 PM
BOS
MIA
-9
+9
205

Mahomes vs Gurley: The Race for 2018 NFL MVP

Ryan Metivier

by Ryan Metivier in NFL Football

Updated Jan 3, 2023 · 8:21 AM PST

Patrick Mahomes Kansas City Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes is now a +100 favorite to win the 2018 NFL MVP. Photo by Jeffrey Beall (Flickr) [CC License]
  • Two players have separated themselves from the pack in NFL MVP odds
  • Will current favorite Patrick Mahomes continue to impress?
  • Or will Todd Gurley win the award as the first RB since Adrian Peterson in 2012?

Patrick Mahomes and Todd Gurley have risen to the top of NFL MVP odds as the two clear favorites.

Average Odds to Win 2018 NFL MVP

Drew Brees is hanging around, but Mahomes and Gurley are both seeing extremely short average odds to win the 2018 NFL MVP, signalling this is a two-horse race.

NFL MVP Odds

Team Odds
Patrick Mahomes EVEN
Todd Gurley +210
Drew Brees +800
Aaron Rodgers +1500
Philip Rivers +1500

*For a full list follow the link in the table.

Mahomes Ignites Chiefs’ Offense

The first-year starter hasn’t missed a beat in KC and has impressed in leading the Chiefs to a 6-1 record and first place in the AFC West.

Mahomes was much the outsider to win the award in the spring, with average odds of +10000 on April 10.

2024-25 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds Tracker
Read More

Those odds shortened during the offseason and were at +4000 near the end of August. They were again quickly slashed all the way down to +330 as of September 26, as he threw an NFL-record 13 TDs in Weeks 1-3.

Under Andy Reid’s high-powered offense, Mahomes has only thrown for less than 300 yards once in eight games, and that came in the first game of the season.

It took all the way until Week 5 for him to throw his first INT, a game in which he threw two, yet KC still won 30-14 over Jacksonville.

Since that first pick, the INTs have become more common with six in his past four games. However, that pales in comparison to the 12 TDs he’s thrown in the same timeframe. In fact he’s now thrown four TDs in each of the Chiefs’ past three games.

In what was his biggest test of the season, Mahomes proved capable of going toe-to-toe with one of the league’s best.

The Chiefs came up just short in a 43-40 loss in New England against Tom Brady. Mahomes threw for 352 yards with four TDs and two INTs. Mahomes has already begun to break passing records, and, at his current pace, could be in line to break many more.

Mahomes vs League Leader/Closest Competitor

Mahomes
VS
LL/CC
2,526 Passing Yards 2,521
26 Passing TDs 23
6 INTs *1
115.3 Passer Rating 118.2

*As far as starting QBs go, each of Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers have only thrown a single INT, yet Brees owns a slightly better ratio having 14 TDs compared to Rodgers’ 13.

Mahomes has been incredibly efficient with the ball in only throwing six INTs. By comparison, Andrew Luck has the second-most TDs of any QB and has thrown eight INTs.

Gurley Doing It All For Rams

Much like Mahomes, Gurley has been the focal point behind the Rams’ explosive offense.

Through eight games, Gurley leads all rushers with 800 yards on the ground for an even 100 YPG. Gurley is a full 181 yards ahead of Ezekiel Elliott, and Elliott only has three TDs compared to Gurley’s 11.

Gurley’s contributions far exceed the ground game though.

He has the fourth-most receiving yards on the team and his four receiving TDs are only behind that of Cooper Kupp’s five.

Not counting QBs, his 15 total touchdowns are five clear of Mahomes’ teammate Kareem Hunt, who has ten. Only 14 players have caught more TDs than Gurley in the league and only James White and Kareem Hunt have more as RBs at five.

Gurley vs League Leader/Closest Competitor

Gurley
VS
LL/CC
800 Rushing Yards 619
4.7 Yards/Carry 6.2
1,151 Yards From Scrimmage 1,016
15 Total TDs 10

League-wide, Gurley tops all backs in basically every major category.

Though he lags behind the league-leader Aaron Jones of the Packers in YPC with 6.2, Jones has only carried the ball 44 times compared to Gurley’s 169. Of running backs with at least 100 carries, Gurley is only behind the Bengals’ Joe Mixon at 4.8.

Gurley has been a fantasy owner’s dream as you can literally count on him for at least one score per game. He’s found the end zone in each game this season, and scored multiple times in four games.

He’s also been able to rip off yardage in large chunks with six runs of 20 or more yards. Only two players have been more successful in that category with seven.

Here’s one more stat to emphasize the importance of Gurley to the Rams’ offense: no back is better at moving the chains, as his 44 first downs are 12 more than anyone else at his position.

Is There Value Outside the Top Two?

Picking between these two is like splitting hairs.

Take either off their respective teams and the fortunes of each team would greatly suffer. As a first-year starter, what Mahomes is doing is simply incredible. On the flip side, Gurley has been responsible for 15 of the Rams’ 28 offensive TDs.

Based off value I’ll side with Gurley at +210.

But don’t count out Drew Brees for a slightly larger return at +800.

His TD/INT ratio is off the charts at 14:1, and his consistency at 39 years old is remarkable. The newest member of the 500 Passing TD club goes head-to-head with Gurley and the Rams this Sunday.

Author Image