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Mahomes Given Even Odds to Lead NFL in Passing After Week 3

Patrick Mahomes about to pass.
The odds of Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes leading the NFL in passing dropped from +150 to even money in a week. Photo from @NFL (Twitter).
  • The odds of Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes leading the NFL in passing went from +150 to even money in a week
  • Mahomes currently tops the NFL with 1,195 passing yards
  • His nearest competitor trails him by 217 yards

When it comes to passing, Patrick Mahomes appears to be in a class by himself.

The Kansas City Chiefs quarterback leads the NFL with 1,195 passing yards through Week 3. No other NFL QB has reached 1,000 yards.

With 13 games left in the season, Sportsbooks are solidly backing  Mahomes in this statistical category. He has even odds to finish up the 2019 season as the NFL leader in passing yardage.

2019 NFL Passing Yardage Leader Odds

Player (Team) Passing Yards (NFL Rank) Odds
Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs) 1165 (1) EVEN
Matt Ryan (Falcons) 928 (5) +700
Philip Rivers (Chargers) 944 (3) +800
Dak Prescott (Cowboys) 920 (6) +1400
Andy Dalton (Bengals) 978 (2) +1500
Tom Brady (Patriots) 911 (7) +1600
Deshaun Watson (Texans) 778 (15) +2000
Kyler Murray (Cardinals) 830 (11) +2500
Matthew Stafford (Lions) 831 (10) +2500
Carson Wentz (Eagles) 803 (13) +2500
Aaron Rodgers (Packers) 647 (23) +2800
Jameis Winston (Buccaneers) 782 (14) +2800
Jimmy Garappolo (49ers) 739 (18) +3300
Baker Mayfield (Browns) 805 (12) +3300

*Odds taken on 09/25/19. 

A week ago, Mahomes was listed as the +150 favorite in this betting market.

Mahomes Not Standing Pat

Last season, his first as an NFL starter, Mahomes became the second quarterback in NFL history to throw 50 touchdown passes. He was the seventh in the league to ever reach 5,000 yards. He joined Peyton Manning as the only NFL QBs to reach both of those figures in the same season.

It was only natural to anticipate that some regression would be in order.

Mahomes begged to differ.

At his current pace, he’ll finish the season with 6,373 passing yards, an NFL record.

Now, Mahomes also lit up the league at a record pace through three weeks of last season. He’d completed 13 TD passes, and was on pace for 70 scoring aerials. His yardage totals, though, were nowhere near this year’s output.

The Chiefs QB passed for just 896 yards through Game #3. Through three weeks of this season, that total would place him ninth in the NFL.

Mahomes, at the time, was on pace for 4,778 yards. But he finished with 5,097 yards.

That’s the bad news for those chasing him right now. History suggests that Mahomes only gets better as the year goes on.

The Competition Is Falling

Two QBS who figured to be capable of giving Mahomes a run for his money are already out of the race. Ben Roethlisberger of the Pittsburgh Steelers, last year’s NFL passing yardage leader with 5,129, went out for the season in Week 2 after undergoing elbow surgery.

Drew Brees of the New Orleans Saints, NFL single-season passing yardage leader seven times and the league’s all-time leader in this statistical category, is done for 6-8 weeks after undergoing thumb surgery after Week 2.

Can Anyone Challenge Mahomes?

In just three weeks, Mahomes has already established a 217-yard lead over his nearest rival, Andy Dalton of the Cincinnati Bengals.

Ten NFL starting QBs didn’t pass for 217 yards during Week 3 games.

Dalton is averaging 326 yards passing per game, which is a solid number. And it’s not even close to the 398.3 yards per game that Mahomes it putting up per week. Only Dak Prescott of the Dallas Cowboys (9.8) is anywhere close to the 10.5 yards-per-completion average that Mahomes is posting.

If there’s someone who might be worth the risk of a flyer to catch Mahomes, it’s Philip Rivers of the Los Angeles Chargers. He’s led the league before (2010) and has gone over 300 yards in two of three games. With the rumored return of holdout running back Melvin Gordon, that could also open up the Chargers’ pass game.

A Healthy Yardage Marker

In reality, about the only thing that could stop Mahomes in his quest to lead the NFL in passing yardage would be injury.

He’s gone over 350 yards in each of his first three games. Just two QBs in NFL history have ever surpassed 350 yards passing in four consecutive games.

This week, Mahomes gets the Detroit Lions, 22nd in the NFL in pass defense (269.3 ypg).

If Mahomes stays healthy, he won’t just lead the NFL in passing yardage. He just might set a new league record.

Pick: Patrick Mahomes (+100)

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