- The odds of Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes leading the NFL in passing went from +150 to even money in a week
- Mahomes currently tops the NFL with 1,195 passing yards
- His nearest competitor trails him by 217 yards
When it comes to passing, Patrick Mahomes appears to be in a class by himself.
The Kansas City Chiefs quarterback leads the NFL with 1,195 passing yards through Week 3. No other NFL QB has reached 1,000 yards.
With 13 games left in the season, Sportsbooks are solidly backing Mahomes in this statistical category. He has even odds to finish up the 2019 season as the NFL leader in passing yardage.
2019 NFL Passing Yardage Leader Odds
|Player (Team)||Passing Yards (NFL Rank)||Odds|
|Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs)||1165 (1)||EVEN|
|Matt Ryan (Falcons)||928 (5)||+700|
|Philip Rivers (Chargers)||944 (3)||+800|
|Dak Prescott (Cowboys)||920 (6)||+1400|
|Andy Dalton (Bengals)||978 (2)||+1500|
|Tom Brady (Patriots)||911 (7)||+1600|
|Deshaun Watson (Texans)||778 (15)||+2000|
|Kyler Murray (Cardinals)||830 (11)||+2500|
|Matthew Stafford (Lions)||831 (10)||+2500|
|Carson Wentz (Eagles)||803 (13)||+2500|
|Aaron Rodgers (Packers)||647 (23)||+2800|
|Jameis Winston (Buccaneers)||782 (14)||+2800|
|Jimmy Garappolo (49ers)||739 (18)||+3300|
|Baker Mayfield (Browns)||805 (12)||+3300|
*Odds taken on 09/25/19.
A week ago, Mahomes was listed as the +150 favorite in this betting market.
Mahomes Not Standing Pat
Last season, his first as an NFL starter, Mahomes became the second quarterback in NFL history to throw 50 touchdown passes. He was the seventh in the league to ever reach 5,000 yards. He joined Peyton Manning as the only NFL QBs to reach both of those figures in the same season.
It was only natural to anticipate that some regression would be in order.
.@Chiefs @PatrickMahomes is making these throws look routine. We are watching true greatness every week and he is so young. We get to watch this every week for who knows how long but it’s so unique and so refreshing and such a good dude. #BaldysBreakdowns pic.twitter.com/ocetSd5Rrf
— Brian Baldinger (@BaldyNFL) September 24, 2019
Mahomes begged to differ.
At his current pace, he’ll finish the season with 6,373 passing yards, an NFL record.
Now, Mahomes also lit up the league at a record pace through three weeks of last season. He’d completed 13 TD passes, and was on pace for 70 scoring aerials. His yardage totals, though, were nowhere near this year’s output.
KC @chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes is at it again…
First QB to 1,000 Pass Yards and 10 Pass TD in 2019 ? pic.twitter.com/Bm0MMCSdRH
— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) September 25, 2019
The Chiefs QB passed for just 896 yards through Game #3. Through three weeks of this season, that total would place him ninth in the NFL.
Mahomes, at the time, was on pace for 4,778 yards. But he finished with 5,097 yards.
That’s the bad news for those chasing him right now. History suggests that Mahomes only gets better as the year goes on.
The Competition Is Falling
Two QBS who figured to be capable of giving Mahomes a run for his money are already out of the race. Ben Roethlisberger of the Pittsburgh Steelers, last year’s NFL passing yardage leader with 5,129, went out for the season in Week 2 after undergoing elbow surgery.
— First Take (@FirstTake) September 23, 2019
Drew Brees of the New Orleans Saints, NFL single-season passing yardage leader seven times and the league’s all-time leader in this statistical category, is done for 6-8 weeks after undergoing thumb surgery after Week 2.
Can Anyone Challenge Mahomes?
In just three weeks, Mahomes has already established a 217-yard lead over his nearest rival, Andy Dalton of the Cincinnati Bengals.
Ten NFL starting QBs didn’t pass for 217 yards during Week 3 games.
Through two games, Andy Dalton is on pace for…
99.3 Passer Rating
— Goodberry (@JoeGoodberry) September 15, 2019
Dalton is averaging 326 yards passing per game, which is a solid number. And it’s not even close to the 398.3 yards per game that Mahomes it putting up per week. Only Dak Prescott of the Dallas Cowboys (9.8) is anywhere close to the 10.5 yards-per-completion average that Mahomes is posting.
Philip Rivers moves into 4th for the MOST 300 yard passing games in NFL history. pic.twitter.com/yVYx8srH7h
— #FootballWeekNBCSN (@SNFonNBC) September 22, 2019
If there’s someone who might be worth the risk of a flyer to catch Mahomes, it’s Philip Rivers of the Los Angeles Chargers. He’s led the league before (2010) and has gone over 300 yards in two of three games. With the rumored return of holdout running back Melvin Gordon, that could also open up the Chargers’ pass game.
A Healthy Yardage Marker
In reality, about the only thing that could stop Mahomes in his quest to lead the NFL in passing yardage would be injury.
He’s gone over 350 yards in each of his first three games. Just two QBs in NFL history have ever surpassed 350 yards passing in four consecutive games.
So this happened literally the only time Patrick Mahomes has played an NFL game indoors lmao pic.twitter.com/n21UHaqjC5
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) September 25, 2019
This week, Mahomes gets the Detroit Lions, 22nd in the NFL in pass defense (269.3 ypg).
If Mahomes stays healthy, he won’t just lead the NFL in passing yardage. He just might set a new league record.
Pick: Patrick Mahomes (+100)
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