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NFL Week 8 ATS Picks: Does Brees Help Saints Cover Double-Digit Spread vs Cardinals?

Eric Rosales

by Eric Rosales in NFL Football

Updated Apr 7, 2020 · 10:54 AM PDT

Drew Brees throwing a football
Drew Brees should be returning to the Saints lineup. Should they be your pick to cover against the Cardinals? Photo by Tammy Anthony Baker (flickr) [CC License].
  • Drew Brees returns to Saints lineup as Cardinals come to town
  • Patriots try to stay undefeated as they host the Browns
  • ATS Week 7 Record: 1-3; Overall 2019 Record: 11-17

First off, thanks to the talented Mike Ortiz Jr. for stepping in and delivering SBD’s picks for Week 7. Unfortunately, it seems as though he picked up right where I left off, climbing uphill with little tread on those tires. All good – the turnaround starts now.

In this super-sized edition, the lowest point spread matchup we’re looking at is seven points.

We start in the Big Easy, where the Saints should be seeing a familiar face under center come Sunday.

Arizona Cardinals vs New Orleans Saints

Team Spread
Arizona Cardinals +10 (-109)
New Orleans Saints -10 (-109)

*Odds from 24/10/19

Analysis: Teddy Bridgewater not only showed he deserves a chance to compete for a starting job for next season, he also put the Saints into the race for homefield throughout the NFC playoffs.  Now he appears to make way for Drew Brees, who should be back from a thumb injury on his throwing hand.

Brees should also have a healthy Alvin Kamara back in the fold, with a defense that has been the team’s stabilizing force all season. They’re tied for fifth in the NFL with 20 sacks, but they get even tougher in the trenches, having not allowed a 100-yard rusher in 33 straight games.

Still, the Cardinals are dangerous because Kyler Murray is the cheat code to break through this stout D. The top pick in this year’s draft leads all rookies in yards passing with 1,768, ranks second in pass TDs with seven, ranks second among all QBs with 266 yards rushing.

His ability to manufacture plays on the fly, coupled with the Saints reacclimatizing to Brees should be enough for the Cardinals to make this more interesting than expected.

The Pick: Cardinals (+10)

Oakland Raiders vs Houston Texans

Team Spread
Oakland Raiders +7 (-114)
Houston Texans -7 (-104)

Analysis: After getting shredded by Aaron Rogers last week, Oakland is next to dead last in the NFL in pass defense, while already surrendering 32 plays of 20 yards or more this season – including nine against the Packers. They are also allowing 27.5 points per game, the fourth worst mark in the league.

That’s not a good thing as they visit a Houston squad that was just humbled by the Colts, and is currently the eighth-highest scoring team in the NFL at 26.4 points a contest.

Deshaun Watson is in a logjam tie for fifth in TD passes with 13, and has thrown for 1,951 yards on a crisp 69.4% clip.

The leader in completion percentage this year is Raiders QB Derek Carr, who’s completing nearly three-quarters of his passes (74.1%). He’ll likely need to be at that clip in this game, as he’ll be facing a defense that hasn’t allowed a 100-yard rusher in 23 straight regular season games.

With the AFC South still wildly up for grabs, expect the Texans to take command of this one.

The Pick: Texans (+7)

Cleveland Browns vs New England Patriots

Team Spread
Cleveland Browns +12 (-109)
New England Patriots -12 (-109)

Analysis: At this point, it’s just wise betting to be leaning to the Patriots. They are currently 5-2 against the spread, and they boast what has been one of the historically great defenses that the NFL has seen in an eight-game sample. New England is first in fewest points allowed (48), total yards allowed per game (223.1), fewest yards per play (4.0) and fewest net passing yards per play (4.3), while allowing a league-low 14.3 percent success rate on third down.

If that’s not enough, they lead NFL with 18 interceptions through seven games.

Meanwhile, Baker Mayfield leads the league in interceptions thrown with 11, and has not looked especially sharp. It’s not like Mayfield is being forced to go it alone: he’s being supported by a strong rushing attack paced by stud running back Nick Chubb, whose 607 yards rushing is second best in the AFC.

On the other side, perhaps this is where the Patriots try to get Sony Michel going, as the Browns have allowed 445 yards rushing in the past two games.

The Pick: Patriots (-12)

Cincinnati Bengals vs Los Angeles Rams

Team Spread
Cincinnati Bengals +13 (-109)
Los Angeles Rams -13 (-109)

Analysis: Even if I do believe the Rams are suffering a Super Bowl hangover, they should be plenty potent enough to run up the score against the hapless (and winless) Bengals.

After three straight losses, LA got back on the winning track by stomping out the Falcons, and looking more like the team that set the league on fire with their blistering offense. But these aren’t last year’s Rams, as Todd Gurley is nowhere near the fulcrum of the unit like he was last season.

Gurely is currently 23rd in the league with 311 yards rushing: this from a back that has finished third in each of past two seasons.

Maybe LA can try to re-establish him in London, or employ a RB-by-committee approach, because the Bengals are last in the league in stopping the run. They have surrendered a whopping 189 yards rushing per game and a woeful 5.2 yards per carry. Their last three opponents have rushed for more than 200 yards, and they’ve allowed at least 175 yards on ground in five of seven games.

On the other side, Cincinnati is averaging only 2.9 yards per rush, including last week’s horrid performance, as the Bengals rushed for only 33 yards – all by QB Andy Dalton – against the Jaguars. That already marks the fourth time they’ve been held under 35 yards rushing this season.

The Pick: Rams (-13)

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