Nick Mangold Tackles the Moneyline in Week 1 of His Sports Betting Journey

• Nick Mangold has partnered with SportsBettingDime.com to embark on a journey towards becoming a more knowledgeable sports bettor
• Nick starts simple in Week 1 of the 2019 NFL season, betting the moneyline in one game
• See Mangold’s lock of the week below

Welcome to the first step in my sports betting journey! Big thanks to SBD for bringing me on to teach me the ropes of this whole sports betting thing.

Full disclosure, as a football player for the vast majority of my life, I had no experience whatsoever with betting sports. (So be kind here!) But over the last two years – since I retired from the NFL – I’ve started indulging a little bit. And I have to say, I’m a fan.

Not only does it make the game that much more exciting, but it’s been a great way to bond with all my friends as well. Over the last year, my buds and I have been betting a 4-team NFL parlay for the early block of games every Sunday.

It’s great! You get to take in all the action and you know whether you’re a winner before the next block of games start.

The guys at SBD tell me this apparently isn’t the smartest play, though …

So, me being the competitor I am, I had to ask them what these “smart” plays are. They’ve now set me up with a weekly program where I’ll make a different type of bet each week of the NFL season – they have also started calling me a rookie, which better stop soon.

First up: betting the moneyline. (They told me we had to stick to one game, too.)

The moneyline is the simplest type of bet you can make. Even I already knew this one. All you’re doing is picking the winner. The only minor complication here is what you’ll get paid when betting each team.

It’s rare that two teams are ever perceived as being totally equal. And no sportsbook is going to pay you a ton of money to simply bet the Jets Patriots to win each week. This is why there are odds attached to betting each side.

If you need more info (ROOKIE!), check out this great explanation of the moneyline. If it’s just the odds giving you trouble, SBD can also teach you how to read sports odds.

Mangold’s Moneyline Bet of the Week

Now that we all have a better understanding of what we’re doing here, let’s get to my Week 1 pick!

I know we have some seemingly easy picks like Philadelphia over Washington and Seattle over Cincinnati. But the guys at SBD have been preaching this term “value” to me. Basically, it’s all about getting odds that are better than the “true odds” of a team winning.

This involves a little bit of math, though. But SBD has also made this easy for you with their odds converter tool. You can use that to quickly convert from whatever odds you prefer to an implied probability.

Eagles are now 10 point favorites against the Redskins Sunday; that’s the biggest spread in the NFL — bigger than Ravens Dolphins and Seahawks Bengals.

Justified or unfair?

— Hogs Haven (@HogsHaven) September 5, 2019

So if you believe the implied probability attached to a set of odds is lower than what you’d expect it to be, you’d say there’s value in betting that team. (Did I get that right, Matt?)

So looking at the Eagles odds to beat the Redskins this week, it’s suggesting Philly has an 83.6% chance of winning the game. I’d say that’s about right. Flipping to the Seahawks-Bengals game, Seattle is given -460 odds to win, which comes out to an 82.1% chance. Again, I’d say that’s accurate.

But the game that stands out to me as being way off is Baltimore vs Miami.

Ravens vs Dolphins Week 1 Moneyline

*Odds taken September 7

Subject to the sportsbook you use, Baltimore is being given -310 odds to win this game. That’s only a 75.6% chance of winning. I see the Ravens’ true odds of winning this game being much higher, more like 85%.

While I know all about Fitz-magic (see 2015), I also know when a team is tanking.

John Harbaugh’s squad will be ready for this game, as will Lamar Jackson. Baltimore’s offensive line will dominate the line of scrimmage, while Miami’s Laremy Tunsil-less offensive line will have trouble all day.

So sign me up for the Ravens on the moneyline in Week 1! It won’t pay me much, but it will pay me. If you want to take my bet one step further, check out SBD’s Ravens vs Dolphins full odds. Or don’t bet it … and risk being a loser in Week 1.