NFL Odds and Spreads – Line Movement for Week 13

• The Week 13 NFL line movement is featuring the return from suspension of Cleveland Browns QB Deshaun Watson
• The Cincinnati Bengals, 8-1 ATS in their last nine games, are playing host to the Kansas City Chiefs in a rematch of last season’s AFC Championship Game
• That game (53 points) and the Jacksonville Jaguars vs Detroit Lions (51 points) are both showing totals above 50 points

Deshaun Watson is coming back to the NFL this week and it’s creating plenty of intrigue in the NFL Week 13 line movement. The quarterback has completed his NFL-mandated suspension and is slated to make his debut for the Cleveland Browns as they travel to Houston to face the woeful Texans.

In the NFL odds, the 4-7 Browns jumped from 6 to 7-point favorites over the NFL-worst 1-9-1 Texans. In the over/under line, the total has grown from 44.5 to 47.5 points.

Taking charge as the chalk in the Super Bowl odds, the Kansas City Chiefs are 2-point road favorites as they meet the team that beat them in last season’s AFC Championship Game, the Cincinnati Bengals. The Bengals, New York Giants and Tennessee Titans share an NFL-best 8-3 against the spread record through 12 weeks of the NFL season.

Before entering into a deep dive regarding this week’s line movement, let’s look at the up-to-date Week 13 NFL odds.

NFL Week 13 Betting Lines

Odds as of December 2 at Caesars Sportsbook. Claim the Caesars Sportsbook promo code to bet on the NFL this weekend

In Week 13 against the spread picks, four games are showing a line of a touchdown of more. On the weekend slate, home and road teams are each favored in seven games. For the first time in many weeks, there are two games showing totals above 50 points.

NFL Week 13 Biggest Line Movement

Across NFL betting sites, the line that’s moved the most this week is on the Seattle Seahawks vs Los Angeles Rams game. The opening line was Seahawks -4.5 and currently sits at Seattle -7. Although the Seahawks are 4-2 ATS in the last six games, they’re also 0-2 ATS in the past two games.

The Rams, though, are an absolute train wreck. They’re 0-3 ATS in the last three games, 0-4-1 in the last five and 1-6-1 through the past eight games. As an underdog, LA is 0-4-1 ATS.

Biggest Total Movement In Week 13 NFL Lines

The three-point increase in the total on this game is the biggest move of the week in the over/under line. The 47.5-point total is marking the third successive road game in which Cleveland’s total has gone at least that high. And the Browns have hit the over in both of the previous games.

Deshaun Watson practices for the first time as the Browns starting quarterback this regular season. #Browns pic.twitter.com/KO9Vpolxa4

— Hayden Grove (@H_Grove) November 30, 2022

In the NFL public betting trends, the people aren’t as sold on this number. There’s 57% of the handle on the over, but 72% of bets are backing the under.

Oddsmakers Setting Three Games With 1-Point Spreads

In the NFL Week 13 opening odds, the Pittsburgh Steelers were 2.5-point road underdogs at the Atlanta Falcons. Today, the Steelers sit as 1-point favorites. It’s one of three Week 13 games featuring a 1-point line.

The Las Vegas Raiders are the 1-point home chalk over the Los Angeles Chargers in an AFC West matchup. The game has also seen a major swing in the betting line. It opened with LA as the 2.5-point favorite. The Chargers are 7-4 ATS this season.

Trevor Lawrence in his last three games:

🐆 77.2 completion %
🐆 815 passing yards
🐆 6 TDs
🐆 0 INTs
🐆 114.9 passer rating#DUUUVAL pic.twitter.com/zHFzU0dM0r

— The 33rd Team (@The33rdTeamFB) November 28, 2022

Likewise, the Detroit Lions were 1.5-point home favorites over the Jacksonville Jaguars in the opening line for their game at Ford Field. It’s shown movement in favor of the Jaguars, who are now the 1-point chalk. Jacksonville is 2-6 ATS in the last eight games and 0-9 ATS in the last nine against an NFC club. But they are 2-1 ATS in the last three games.

Cowboys Expected to Break Colts

Giving the Cowboys 10.5 points, the largest spread of Week 13, might seem like too much. Until you do the math. 

In the last five games, Dallas has scored 169 points. That works out to 33.8 points per game. Twice they’ve topped 40 points in that span.

In the last six games, the Colts have scored 87 points. That works out to 14.5 points per game. In seven of their last 10 games, Indy has failed to get to 20 points.

Dallas failed to cover last week as a 10-point pick over the New York Giants. But they did cover as a 9-point pick over Chicago earlier in the season.

Denver and the Incredibly Shrinking Total

It just wouldn’t be NFL Week (fill in the blank) if the lowest total of the week wasn’t assigned to the Denver Broncos game. This is the second week in a row the lowest number is attached to the Broncos game. It’s the fourth time in the last six games that the total for a Denver game is under 40 points. The highest total for the Broncos in that six-game stretch was 41.5 points.

In terms of the over, Denver is an NFL-worst 1-10 this season. The club’s last seven games and Denver’s last five games against an AFC opponent have all gone under.

Chiefs and Bengals NFL Week 13’s Highest Total

The AFC title game rematch between Kansas City and Cincinnati is displaying a Week 13 high total of 53 points. This is the third time in four weeks and the eighth time this season that a Chiefs game is showing a 50+ point total. KC is 3-4 on the over/under in those games. By contrast, this is the first time all season the Bengals are part of a game featuring a total of over 49 points.

This is the fourth straight Chiefs vs Bengals game to be showing a total of 50+ points. Two of the three previous games went under. The only time they hit on the over was the lone game played at Cincinnati.

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