Odds Suggest Roughing the Passer Calls Will Decline in Week 4 (A Little)
- NFL’s new definition of roughing the passer is drawing harsh criticism from within the football world
- Roughing the passer calls in the NFL are already at 34 this season. Only 109 were called all of last season
- Oddsmakers are offering a prop bet anticipating these calls will reduce in number during Week 4 of the NFL season
Three weeks into the NFL season, there is a consensus regarding the league’s new version of roughing the passer:
The players hate it. The coaches hate it. Former officials consider the new rule to be a travesty.
Even the NFL’s Competition Commitee, which laid the groundwork for the redefining of the rule, is expressing concern with how it is being implemented.
The new definition of the rule was designed to prohibit defenders from landing with their weight on the quarterback, after a hit last season by Minnesota Vikings linebacker Anthony Barr broke the collarbone of Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers.
Will Change Come to Passer Calls?
Through three weeks of play, roughing the passer has been flagged 34 times, an average of 11.3 calls per week. The entire 2017 NFL season saw 109 roughing the passer calls. Based on the 16-game season, that works out to 6.1 calls per week, so the rate at which the penalty is flagged has nearly doubled.
Critics, including former NFL officiating directors Dean Blandino and Mike Pereira, believe that the NFL has gone too far in the opposite direction with the rule and are basically asking defenders with a full head of steam to defy the laws of physics and gravity.
Former @NFL officiating chiefs @MikePereira and @DeanBlandino issued strong rebuttals today to the league’s emphasis on roughing the QB, especially the two calls in MIN-GB. Relevant transcript: pic.twitter.com/mtnpcepi0Y
— Kevin Seifert (@SeifertESPN) September 17, 2018
Oddsmakers believe that all this negative feedback will impact on the way the rule is enforced, and is offering a prop bet on roughing the passer calls for Week 4 with the odds leaning toward fewer calls.
Over/Under Week 4 Roughing the Passer Calls
| How Many Roughing the Passer Calls will there Be in Week 4? | Odds |
|---|---|
| Over 12 | +100 |
| Under 12 | -140 |
The persistent scrutiny, coupled with the fact that teams should be growing more accustomed to the way the infraction is being enforced, make anticipation of a decline in roughing the passer calls logical.
Feats Of Clay
The injury to Rodgers was the impetus behind the rule adjustment, yet it’s the Packers who’ve committed a league-high five roughing the passer infractions, three of them going to linebacker Clay Matthews.
Oddsmakers are also offering a pair of prop bet on Matthews and his propensity for roughing the passer.
You can play the straight up yes or no wager:
Clay Matthews Roughing the Passer Odds
| Will Clay Matthews Get a Roughing the Passer Penalty in Week 4? | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | +375 |
| No | -650 |
Or you can opt to bet on the comparable:
Clay Matthews and Josh Allen Odds
| What Will be Greater in Week 4? | Odds |
|---|---|
| Clay Matthews roughing the passer +.5 | +160 |
| Josh Allen TD passes -.5 | -230 |
Either way, you are getting odds on Matthews, and you know that the officials are going to be watching him closely, so he just might be a wise play.
An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.
