- Odell Beckham Jr currently sits fourth in the NFL in receiving
- Beckham Jr is the favorite to lead the league by the end of the season
- Is OBJ the best bet? Or is there better value somewhere else?
It’s never boring for long with Odell Beckham Jr.
Looking at the stats, that’s what you could call Week 1 against the Titans. OBJ produced just 71 yards…but of course he wore that fancy watch.
Week 2 was much better for the Browns’ big-name acquisition. He hauled in six catches for 161 yards and a touchdown.
That performance put him in the top five in receiving yards. It’s a place many expect him to be thanks to his offseason quarterback upgrade.
But could he be the best of the best by season’s end?
Odds to Lead 2019 NFL Season in Receiving Yards
|Receiver||2019 Receiving Yards||Odds|
|Odell Beckham Jr||232||+600|
Odds taken 09/18/19 .
Julio Jones and DeAndre Hopkins finished top two in the receiving race last year, and were favored to do so again just last week. They were top five the year before, with Michael Thomas sliding in at sixth both years.
Odell Beckham Jr has been absent from the league leaders the past few seasons. In 2017 he was sidelined by a broken ankle. Last year it was a quad injury.
But with Beckham healthy and the focal point of a potentially dangerous offense, they sky is the limit.
Receiving Yard Leaders Won’t Last Very Long
A week ago when we were discussing the Kansas City Chiefs offense, we explored Sammy Watkins’ history. That, combined with Tyreek Hill’s eventual return and other weapons in KC eliminates Watkins.
While we’ve been big fans of what Lamar Jackson and Marquise Brown have done, it’s important to consider the competition. They shredded a hapless Dolphins’ defense, and the Cardinals have surrendered over 600 yards so far. As things get harder for Baltimore, Hollywood should slow down.
INJURY UPDATE: @Bengals WR AJ Green (ankle) states it’s going to take longer than the initial 6-8 week timeline for him to be back on the field. Wants to be sure he’s fully 100% before coming back pic.twitter.com/qMlfFvIhQQ
— The Fantasy Source ? (@FantasySource_) September 17, 2019
John Ross will reportedly have a little more time to operate without AJ Green at least. Two of Cincinnati’s next three games (Pittsburgh and Arizona) give him a chance to fatten those numbers up. But Ross is in uncharted territory.
He had 21 career receptions before 2019. He’s at 11 already this year, and has some tough defenses coming up after Week 5.
Who Can Stop Odell Beckham Jr?
The easiest way to figure out OBJ’s path to leading the league in receiving is looking at who he’s playing.
So we went week-by-week to explore the passing defenses that he’ll be going up against. We also highlighted the best receiving line again each after two weeks.
Odell Beckham Jr’s Remaining Schedule
|Week||Opponent||Passing Yards Against/Game||Highest Single-Game Receiving Total (REC/YDS)|
|Week 3||Los Angeles Rams||201.5||Michael Thomas (10/89)|
|Week 4||@ Baltimore Ravens||254||Christian Kirk (8/112)|
|Week 5||@ San Francisco 49ers||232.5||Tyler Boyd (10/122)|
|Week 6||vs Seattle Seahawks||287.5||John Ross (7/158)|
|Week 8||@ New England Patriots||209||JuJu Smith-Schuster (6/78)|
|Week 9||@ Denver Broncos||189.5||Tyrell Williams (6/105)|
|Week 10||vs Buffalo Bills||198||Jamison Crowder (14/99)|
|Week 11||vs Pittsburgh Steelers||320||Phillip Dorsett (4/95)|
|Week 12||vs Miami Dolphins||316||Marquise Brown (4/147)|
|Week 13||@ Pittsburgh Steelers||320||Phillip Dorsett (4/95)|
|Week 14||vs Cincinnati Bengals||236.5||DK Metcalf (4/89)|
|Week 15||@ Arizona Cardinals||309.5||TJ Hockenson (6/131)|
|Week 16||vs Baltimore Ravens||254||Christian Kirk (8/112)|
|Week 17||@ Cincinnati Bengals||236.5||DK Metcalf (4/89)|
There’s a realistic shot that OBJ could run away with the receiving lead after Week 11. In five weeks, he faces three teams who sit in the top ten for passing yards against. A few weeks before that, he gets the Seahawks, who are well removed from their Legion of Boom days.
— NFL (@NFL) September 17, 2019
If we add up the best receiving totals against all of these teams, we get 1,521 yards. Added to the 232 he’s already totaled, OBJ would settle in at 1,753. That would be the highest single-season total since Julio Jones and Antonio Brown both went over 1,800 in 2015.
Sizing Up the Rest of the Field
In Tampa, it’s tough to figure out what’s going on. Jameis Winston is averaging 6.6 yards per attempt, which is the worst mark of his career. Until they string a few good weeks together, Mike Evans isn’t worth your money.
Jameis Winston’s career stats are truly awful. Does he have any defenders left in the country? I think even FSU fans have abandoned him. pic.twitter.com/6i1aHb9esj
— Clay Travis (@ClayTravis) September 13, 2019
Unfortunately for Michael Thomas, he may be out of the running too. In Teddy Bridgewater’s only two seasons as a starter, his top receiver’s yardage came in under 750. Granted neither were at the level of Thomas, but six weeks without Drew Brees will hurt his chances.
Sean Payton supported QB Teddy Bridgewater despite his ineffective performance. Said he was ready to go, called him a pro. Said he was disappointed with the play around him. Doesn’t sound like there will be any QB controversy if Brees can’t play.
— Mike Triplett (@MikeTriplett) September 15, 2019
The same can be said for JuJu Smith-Schuster, because we know even less about Mason Rudolph.
OBJ Leads Short List of Favorites
Cutting the others aside, we’re left with OBJ, Hopkins, Jones and Keenan Allen.
And Allen may be your best bet after OBJ.
Julio Jones will get his, but maybe things are a little more level with the emerging Calvin Ridley. He bites into Julio’s numbers ever so slightly.
Only two receivers have seen over half of their team's air yards in the first two games of the season:
– Keenan Allen (54% of LAC air yards)
– Terry McLaurin (50%)
— Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) September 16, 2019
Hopkins is just as talented as the other three, but you have to wonder if that offensive line catches up to Deshaun Watson again.
Allen is in the best situation with Philip Rivers throwing him the ball, and his volume may go up with Hunter Henry sidelined.
But considering his start and who’s coming up on the Browns’ schedule, it’s tough to go against OBJ.
Picks: Odell Beckham Jr (+600); Keenan Allen (+1000)