Opening 2020 NFL MVP Odds – Mahomes Favored, Jackson Listed at +700, Kyler Murray at +2000

• Patrick Mahomes opens as the NFL MVP favorites for a second straight season
• Is there any reason to expect reigning MVP Lamar Jackson to drop off in terms of production?
• Tom Brady might be worth a look at +2800 if he finds himself surrounded by better talent

The 2020 NFL MVP odds have been released and bettors now have early access to one of the more intriguing NFL futures markets. As Patrick Mahomes celebrates the Super Bowl win during the Kansas City Chiefs’ championship parade, he’s opened as the favorite to win the award next year. Is he the best bet?

2020 NFL MVP Odds

*Odds taken February 5.

Mahomes Opens As Favorite To Win 2020 MVP

For the second year in a row, Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes has opened as the favorite to win the NFL MVP award. Last year, he opened up at +400. This year, he’s the favorite at +600.

What’s interesting to note is that Mahomes didn’t really have an MVP-caliber campaign in 2019 as he finished with 4,031 yards, 26 touchdowns and five interceptions. Of course, he missed a couple of games but overall, those numbers are way off his 2018 pace when he had 50 passing touchdowns.

He played like an MVP in the playoffs and he’s going to be in a great position to put up MVP-type numbers in 2019, but he wasn’t really MVP caliber in the 2019 regular season. He was just below the cusp. He’s arguably the safest one or two players to bet at this point, though, which is why you have to consider him.

Why Is Kyler Murray at +2000?

One of the most bizarre things to note from the 2020 NFL MVP odds is that Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray is seventh in line in terms of the odds. While he was named Rookie of the Year in 2019, an award many people felt should have gone to Raiders running back Josh Jacobs, is Murray capable of joining the MVP conversation?

Murray finished 2019 with 3,722 passing yards (15th in the NFL) with 20 touchdowns (21st) and 12 interceptions (20th). He also added four more touchdowns on the ground. While it wasn’t a bad year, it’s really hard to see him jumping into the MVP conversation based on what we saw.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d26PqiSLgRw

To start, the Cardinals will have to surround him with much more talent at wide receiver and tight end. No player on the team had 1000 receiving yards and the top tight end was Charles Clay, who had a paltry 18 receptions. Arizona seems to have fixed their offensive line and ground game, but Murray needs weapons.

Absent of a complete overhaul of their receiving corps, betting Murray at this point makes no sense to me.

Lamar Jackson Should Pile Up Numbers

Jackson will enter the year as the reigning MVP and in my view, he should be the favorite. We’re talking about a player who compiled 4,333 total yards with 42 touchdowns. To me, Jackson reminds me of a better version of Michael Vick and when Vick was in his prime in Atlanta, he was very consistent stat-wise.

Vick had 3,215 total yards and 17 touchdowns in 2004, 3,009 yards and 21 touchdowns in 2005 and 3,519 yards and 22 touchdowns in 2006. If those numbers don’t impress you that much, keep in mind the league was very different back then. Tom Brady led the league in passing in 2005 with 4,110 yards. This year, that would have put him seventh.

At any rate, in my eyes, Jackson is the player who is most likely to continue to put up monstrous numbers year-over-year. The Ravens have an excellent offensive line, a good running game, a decent defense and a smart head coach. The young receiving corps should only get better.

Don’t forget, Jackson is just 23 years old. He’ll continue to improve. We should see him be a 1000-yard rusher annually and if he passes for around 3000-3500 yards and compiles around 40 touchdowns, that puts him in the conversation. Based on what we’ve seen from him, I have the most faith in him being MVP in 2020.

What’s The Best Bet?

If you’re looking at the group of favorites, I like Jackson. If you have a taste for a long shot, how about Tom Brady? Sure, he’s coming off a rough year but he still had 4,057 passing yards. He played with a terrible cast this year, though. If he comes back, the Patriots will be sure not to make that mistake again.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YpNHilfPYEE

If the Patriots get a tight end like Hunter Henry and maybe a star wideout like A.J. Green, Brady should be back to slinging it around like we’ve seen in the past. He had 4,577 yards in 2017 and won the MVP. With a better cast around him and something to prove after an off year, I’d be willing to take a flier at +2800.