Opening NFL OROY Odds: Mendoza Not the Favorite Ahead of 2026 Draft

• The 2026 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds are live, and the Heisman winner isn’t the favorite
• Fernando Mendoza opens at +320 at FanDuel, behind a surprising name at the top of the board
• Read below for the full OROY odds, why Mendoza isn’t favored, and the best value bet on the board

FanDuel Sportsbook has released a massive OROY board with nearly 100 players priced, and the biggest takeaway might be who’s not on top. Fernando Mendoza, the Heisman winner and consensus No. 1 pick, opens at +320. He’s not the favorite.

That spot belongs to Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love at +280. It’s a big departure from what we’ve been seeing on prediction markets, and there’s a clear reason why FanDuel flipped the order.

2026 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook as of April 22. Nearly 100 players are priced on the full board. Grab the FanDuel promo code before placing any NFL futures bets.

Love at +280 implies about a 26% chance to win the award, while Mendoza at +320 sits around 24%. After those two, there’s a sizable gap before Carnell Tate (+750) and Jordyn Tyson (+850) round out the top four.

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Why Mendoza Isn’t the OROY Favorite

Two words: Kirk Cousins. The Raiders signed the 14-year veteran to a $20 million guaranteed deal back on April 2, and he’s expected to be the bridge starter while Mendoza learns the system. You can’t win Offensive Rookie of the Year holding a clipboard.

Head coach Klint Kubiak reportedly wants to bring Mendoza along slowly. Kubiak and Cousins have history together from Minnesota, when Kubiak was the Vikings’ offensive coordinator. The plan in Las Vegas is development first, not a Week 1 starting job.

That doesn’t mean Mendoza won’t eventually take over. If Cousins struggles early, we could see the Heisman winner under center by midseason. But FanDuel is pricing in the uncertainty, and that’s why a guy who was trading at nearly -200 on prediction markets now opens as the second choice on the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds board.

Why Love Opens as the Favorite

Love’s case is the exact opposite. If Tennessee takes him at No. 4 like the market expects, he’s walking into a situation built for immediate, heavy usage. The Titans finished 30th in rushing yards per game in 2025, and they already have Cam Ward entering year two at quarterback.

Love rushed for 18 touchdowns and led all draft prospects with 726 breakaway rushing yards at Notre Dame, per Pro Football Focus. He also caught 27 passes, which makes him a true three-down back from day one. There’s no veteran ahead of him and no timeshare to worry about.

The market is pricing in a simple equation. A projected Day 1 starter with elite usage beats a rookie quarterback who might spend several weeks on the bench. RBs rarely win OROY, but Love’s projected volume is hard to ignore at +280.

OROY Prediction Market Odds

The Kalshi prediction market tells a similar story. Mendoza is currently trading at 48 cents (down 7 points), while Love sits at 42 cents and is trending up. The gap between them has been shrinking for weeks.

Prediction Markets

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Kalshi

Fernando Mendoza

48%

Jeremiyah Love

42%

Jadarian Price

30%

Makai Lemon

29%

Ty Simpson

0%

Garrett Nussmeier

0%

Drew Allar

0%

Carson Beck

0%

Jonah Coleman

0%

Mike Washington Jr

0%

Predict

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OROY Value Bet: Carnell Tate

• Carnell Tate (+750 at FanDuel)

If you’re looking for the best value on the board, it’s Tate at +750. He’s the top receiver in this draft class with a 77.3% catch rate and a 90.3 PFF grade last season at Ohio State. Every major mock has him going inside the top 10, with the Saints at No. 8 as the most common landing spot.

New Orleans would pair Tate with Chris Olave and make him a primary target for Tyler Shough in year two. That’s the kind of high-volume role that produces NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year winners, and the history backs it up.

Last 5 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Winners

McMillan won it last year at +1300 as a wide receiver, and Garrett Wilson took it in 2022 at +2000. Tate’s price could move fast after Thursday night depending on where he lands. If New Orleans grabs him at 8 like expected, +750 won’t stick around for long.