- The total bar on Tom Brady’s passing yardage during the 2019 NFL season is set at 4,330 yards
- How will wide receiver Antonio Brown’s arrival in New England impact this wager?
- Brady has bettered that total in three of the last four seasons
When it comes to passing, Tom Brady has always put up numbers. But this season, with the loss of his ace tight end Rob Gronkowski to retirement, some wondered whether Brady’s digits would take a downturn.
Wonder no more. Saturday’s news that the Patriots had signed All-Pro wide receiver Antonio Brown after his release by the Oakland Raiders should certainly cause an upswing in over wagers on Brady’s passing yardage amounts this season.
Oddsmakers have set a series of three props on Brady for the 2019 NFL season. The sportsbook put his passing yardage total at 4,330, up from the previous bar of 4,150.
They are also offering total wagers Brady interceptions and touchdown passes.
Tom Brady 2019 NFL Passing Prop Wagers
|Prop||Line||Over Odds||Under Odds|
*Odds taken 9/08/19.
The New England quarterback has passed for more than 4,330 yards in three of the past four seasons.
No Moss on Brady
Almost from the moment the Patriots announced that they’d signed Brown to a one-year, $15-million contract with a $9-million signing bonus, the Randy Moss comparisons began.
In 2007, the Patriots added veteran All-Pro Moss after he’d been dropped by the Raiders. The veteran receiver is seen as a parallel to Brown in both his ability to catch a football and his ability to catch flak as a frequent malcontent.
2006 oakland releases randy moss for conduct detrimental to the team
moss signs with patriots
2019 oakland releases Antonio Brown for conduct detrimental to the team
brown signs with……
— #RIPKobe (@TruChainz_) September 7, 2019
Moss was a three-time NFL leader in touchdown passes when he showed up at Gillette Stadium. In his first season with New England, Moss topped the NFL with 23 TD receptions. He also went off for 1,493 receiving yards.
As well, Brady posted a career high, leading the NFL with 4,806 yards in passing. That was 696 yards better than his previous career-best 4,110 yards that led the NFL in 2005.
Ok, so is Antonio Brown just Randy Moss 2.0?
1. small college guys, Moss: Marshall, Brown: CMU
2. top receiver in the league with his original team
3. forces trade with outlandish behavior in his prime
4. goes to Raiders
5. Struggles and rejuvenates career with Pats?!??
— CoronaCal (@CalDickison) September 5, 2019
Brown has twice led the NFL in reception yardage and twice in total receptions. Last season with the Pittsburgh Steelers, Brown went for 1,253 yards and JuJu Smith-Schuster for 1,426 as Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger led the NFL in passing with 5,129 yards. Brown’s ability to run option routes fits perfectly into New England’s scheme.
New England’s had at least one player go over 1,000 receiving yards in each of Brady’s four top passing yardage seasons. In two of them, a pair of receivers topped the 1,100-yard plateau.
Pick: Over 4,330 (-125).
Brady TD Passes Should be Easy Money
Last season, Brady completed 29 touchdown passes. But he’s gone over 29 three times in the past five seasons.
Tom Brady: "So Belichick's gonna ask you to create a bunch of chaos in the Raiders organization just to mess with Jon Gruden, but eventually you'll get released and we'll pick you up."
Antonio Brown: "Will Bill let me twerk in the end zone???"
TB12: "We'll work on that." pic.twitter.com/pInnDBKCR1
— Matthew McGovern (@MatthewMcGovern) September 7, 2019
His receiving corps now includes Brown, who caught 15 TD passes last season, Super Bowl 53 MVP Julian Edelman (six) and running back James White (seven).
Tom Brady went from having a WR corps of Julian Edelman with Maurice Harris, Dontrelle Inman and Phillip Dorsett to Edelman with Antonio Brown, Josh Gordon, Demaryius Thomas … and you know Gronk is coming back next. pic.twitter.com/Q4W4B0XMr7
— Jamey Eisenberg (@JameyEisenberg) September 7, 2019
Oh, and Josh Gordon is back. He caught three in 11 games last season but had nine TD receptions for the Cleveland Browns in 2013. And don’t forget Demaryius Thomas. He’s averaged 5.25 TD catches over the past four seasons but went over 10 three years in a row with the Denver Broncos from 2012-14.
Pick: Over 29.5 (-125)
Take Your Pick
In 10 of his 19 NFL seasons, Brady has passed for over 4,000 yards. Combined over those 10 seasons, he’s been intercepted 101 times. That’s an average of 10.1 per season.
Tom Brady was asked to reflect on last season's loss to the Steelers and was quick to admit his interception "was a really bad play."
— Henry McKenna (@McKennAnalysis) September 4, 2019
In his four biggest passing-yardage seasons, Brady averaged 8.75 interceptions per season. Over his career, he averages 10.17 interceptions per season.
#Steelers are 0-5 against #Patriots Tom Brady at Gillette Stadium. Brady has completed 141 of 196 passes (71.9%) for 1,797 yards and threw 18 touchdown passes and zero interceptions in those five games at home.
— Steelers Depot ?? (@Steelersdepot) September 6, 2019
During his 17 full seasons as an NFL starter, Brady was picked off more than eight times in 11 of those seasons.
In two of the six seasons where he was under 8.5 interceptions, Brady had eight passes picked off.
Pick: Over 8.5 (-125)