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Over/Under on Tom Brady’s Passing Yards Moved Up After Pats Sign Antonio Brown

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in NFL Football

Sep 8, 2019 · 3:00 AM PDT

Tom Brady's arm cocked to pass.
Oddsmakers have set the total bar on New England quarterback Tom Brady's passing yards at 4,330. How does the arrivial of Antonio Browns to the Patriots impact this wager? (Photo by Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire)
  • The total bar on Tom Brady’s passing yardage during the 2019 NFL season is set at 4,330 yards
  • How will wide receiver Antonio Brown’s arrival in New England impact this wager?
  • Brady has bettered that total in three of the last four seasons

When it comes to passing, Tom Brady has always put up numbers. But this season, with the loss of his ace tight end Rob Gronkowski to retirement, some wondered whether Brady’s digits would take a downturn.

Wonder no more. Saturday’s news that the Patriots had signed All-Pro wide receiver Antonio Brown after his release by the Oakland Raiders should certainly cause an upswing in over wagers on Brady’s passing yardage amounts this season.

Oddsmakers have set a series of three props on Brady for the 2019 NFL season. The sportsbook put his passing yardage total at 4,330, up from the previous bar of 4,150.

They are also offering total wagers Brady interceptions and touchdown passes.

Tom Brady 2019 NFL Passing Prop Wagers

Prop Line Over Odds Under Odds
Passing Yards 4,330 -125 -105
Touchdown Passes 29.5 -125 -105
Interceptions 8.5 -125 -105

*Odds taken 9/08/19.

The New England quarterback has passed for more than 4,330 yards in three of the past four seasons.

No Moss on Brady

Almost from the moment the Patriots announced that they’d signed Brown to a one-year, $15-million contract with a $9-million signing bonus, the Randy Moss comparisons began.

In 2007, the Patriots added veteran All-Pro Moss after he’d been dropped by the Raiders. The veteran receiver is seen as a parallel to Brown in both his ability to catch a football and his ability to catch flak as a frequent malcontent.

Moss was a three-time NFL leader in touchdown passes when he showed up at Gillette Stadium. In his first season with New England, Moss topped the NFL with 23 TD receptions. He also went off for 1,493 receiving yards.

As well, Brady posted a career high, leading the NFL with 4,806 yards in passing. That was 696 yards better than his previous career-best 4,110 yards that led the NFL in 2005.

Brown has twice led the NFL in reception yardage and twice in total receptions. Last season with the Pittsburgh Steelers, Brown went for 1,253 yards and JuJu Smith-Schuster for 1,426 as Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger led the NFL in passing with 5,129 yards. Brown’s ability to run option routes fits perfectly into New England’s scheme.

New England’s had at least one player go over 1,000 receiving yards in each of Brady’s four top passing yardage seasons. In two of them, a pair of receivers topped the 1,100-yard plateau.

Pick: Over 4,330 (-125).

Brady TD Passes Should be Easy Money

Last season, Brady completed 29 touchdown passes. But he’s gone over 29 three times in the past five seasons.

His receiving corps now includes Brown, who caught 15 TD passes last season, Super Bowl 53 MVP Julian Edelman (six) and running back James White (seven).

Oh, and Josh Gordon is back. He caught three in 11 games last season but had nine TD receptions for the Cleveland Browns in 2013. And don’t forget Demaryius Thomas. He’s averaged 5.25 TD catches over the past four seasons but went over 10 three years in a row with the Denver Broncos from 2012-14.

Pick: Over 29.5 (-125)

Take Your Pick

In 10 of his 19 NFL seasons, Brady has passed for over 4,000 yards. Combined over those 10 seasons, he’s been intercepted 101 times. That’s an average of 10.1 per season.

In his four biggest passing-yardage seasons, Brady averaged 8.75 interceptions per season. Over his career, he averages 10.17 interceptions per season.

During his 17 full seasons as an NFL starter, Brady was picked off more than eight times in 11 of those seasons.

In two of the six seasons where he was under 8.5 interceptions, Brady had eight passes picked off.

Pick: Over 8.5 (-125)

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